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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation on the GDP in Iraq using the modern methodology of Cointegration for the period (1988-2020)
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     The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet

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Publication Date
Fri May 15 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SOCIAL DIMENSION IN THE SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT STRATEGY IN IRAQ
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Improving the environment is a mission that should be conducted by three associates; public authorities, environmentalists and the community. The ignorance of environmental education in Iraq has resulted to an almost environmentally illiterate community, demanding well planned programs to raise their environmental; awareness and education. On the other hand, the decision makers should be well informed about the citizens' environmental preferences to be able to set their priorities for the civil services. Merging the Iraqi citizens in listing their environmental priorities is one of many other approaches for "Environment Education" programs. Globally, such methods have proven to be effective and resulted to widespread understandin

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Tourism Companies Assessment via Social Media Using Sentiment Analysis
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In recent years, social media has been increasing widely and obviously as a media for users expressing their emotions and feelings through thousands of posts and comments related to tourism companies. As a consequence, it became difficult for tourists to read all the comments to determine whether these opinions are positive or negative to assess the success of a tourism company. In this paper, a modest model is proposed to assess e-tourism companies using Iraqi dialect reviews collected from Facebook. The reviews are analyzed using text mining techniques for sentiment classification. The generated sentiment words are classified into positive, negative and neutral comments by utilizing Rough Set Theory, Naïve Bayes and K-Nearest Neighbor

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Scopus (9)
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تحليل العوامل المؤثرة في اداء سوق الاوراق المالية(مصر حالة دراسية)
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تشكل سوق الاوراق المالية ركناً اساسياً من اركان هيكل النظام التمويلي في النظم الاقتصادية المعاصرة، لما تقوم به هذه الاسواق من دور مهم في حشد المدخرات المحلية وتوجيهها في قنوات استثمارية تعمل على دعم الاقتصاد القومي وتزيد من معدلات الرفاهية الاقتصادية لافراده، فضلاً عن كونها مرأة للوضع الاقتصادي العام في البلاد.

ونتيجة للروابط القوية بين سوق الاوراق المالية والاقتصاد، عُدّ استقرار ونمو

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 07 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government Analytical study for the Saudi Al-Sharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi-Iranian newspapers for the period (1/1/2018 - 31/12/2018)
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This research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Obstacles of banking insurance and its affection analysis of financial ratios in insurance companies
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Find the impediments Activity vital and important, but focuses a bancassurance activity, diagnosis and its impact on the financial ratios indicators for insurance companies. The researcher has adopted in his research on several financial ratios used to analyze the financial performance of a (relative profitability, liquidity ratio and the ratio of solvency) of the company Iraqi insurance for a period of one year (2009) to a year (2015), based on the annual reports and financial statements (balance sheet revealed income), financial statements for insurance premiums for banks research sample of this research has addressed several topics of theoretical and practical body through which the researcher obstacles to banking and insurance experi

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the sustainability of the public debt in light of the volatile oil revenues in Iraq for the period (2005-2015)
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Abstract

This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The concept of inconsistency and measuring the inverse relationship between overlap and contrast.
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abstract:

The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between the concept of  inconsistency and the measurement of the inverse relationship of overlap and contrast. The study will address the following points:

  1. Explaining the true nature of inconsistency and contrast, as understanding their relationship is essential for determining them.
  2. Examining the view of the scholars regarding their significance as approaches to understanding the relationship.
  • Identifying the relationship between inconsistency and contrast in terms of overlap and contrast.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigating the Sensitivity Effect of Actuarial Assumptions on Pension Liabilities in Malaysia
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Malaysia will be an ageing population by 2030 as the number of those aged 60 years and above has increased drastically from 6.2 percent in 2000 and is expected to reach 13.6 percent by 2030. There are many challenges that will be faced due to the ageing population, one of which is the increasing cost of pensions in the future. In view of that, it is necessary to investigate the effect of actuarial assumptions on pension liabilities under the perspective of ageing. To estimate the pension liabilities, the Projected Unit Credit method is used in the study and commutation functions are employed in the process. Demographic risk and salary risk have been identified as major risks in analyzing pension liabilities in this study. The sensitivity

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Scopus (3)
Crossref (2)
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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