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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Market Iraq Securities in activation Industrial sector Special
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The financial market plays an important role in influencing the economic sectors, including the private industrial sector, through the provision of capital and transfer from savers to investors for the purpose of establishing or expanding projects. Therefore, the financial market is one of the important tools in stimulating the economy in general and the industrial sector in particular, Through the inclusion of industrial companies in the financial market and the introduction of industrial shares to the public, and then provide the necessary funding to stimulate the private industrial sector, Iraq is one of the oil-dependent countries on the oil sector mainly, which lacks industrial production, which is from Are the sectors that

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Affect of Financial Development on Poverty in Iraq for the Period 1980-2010
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There are many applied Economic studies that have found positive nexus between financial development and poverty reduction in developing countries. Iraq has witnessed an increasing rate of poverty during the period 1980-2010 due to many internal and external factors such as wars, economic sanctions, inflation, a high rate of unemployment, and political and security instability. Therefore, the investigation about the solutions to reduce poverty becomes very necessary, and enhancing the financial development in Iraq is one of these options. This is due to that the financial development could reduce the poverty rates through two channels: the first is direct via the offering of the loans and other financial facilities to the poor, a

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
An analytical study of the reality of chemical industries in Iraq for the period (1995-2007)
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Is the chemical industries of great importance for the economy of any country, through what is borne by these industries is an important part of the changes contained in the industrial output of transfer and, moreover, that these industries are overlaps and intricacies of sector-wide with the rest of the manufacturing sectors, with agriculture and services , through the offering of these industries produce Production requirements intervention such as chemical fertilizer used in the production of agricultural crops, in addition to the various areas for the use of phosphorus in the food industry, to the extent that it is difficult to find material Food preparation is not included i

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of the law of amending the unified pension law No. (26) of 2019 on the size of tax revenues An applied research on a sample of Iraqi public universities: أثر تطبيق قانون التقاعد الموحد رقم (26) لسنة 2019 على حجم الايرادات الضريبية
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The contribution rate of tax revenues in the federal budget is very small compared to the rate of contribution of oil revenues and this leads to negative repercussions on the Iraqi economy and the budget becomes a prisoner of high and low oil prices, and this is a problem that needs to be studied to know the extent of the impact of economic and political decisions on the size of tax revenue and The research goal is determined in studying the effect of amending the Unified Law No (26) of 2019 on the size of annual tax revenues .                                   &

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Factors affecting the support of local investment in iraq for the period(1996-2015)
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This paper aims to explain the effect of the taxes policy including direct & indirect taxes on supporting the domestic Investment in Iraq. This could help the official planners for drawing the future policies that help provoking (istumlating) the domestic investment in Iraq the quantitative analysis approach was adopted using regression model. The results showed the significance of the effects of both direct & indirect taxes policies on domestic as a simple correlation coefficient ( r ) of ( 0.6 ) , ( 0.64 ) respectively.  

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Tourism in achieving Economic Development in Iraq (1990 – 2015)
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Abstract

       Tourism is one of the essential economic fields of many countries, both developed and developing. The social plays a greater role in the continuous awareness of a tourist culture based on the need to attract tourists continuously. the tourism heritage and state-owned tourism are the main factors in attracting more tourists. The interest in this strategic sector makes the country the first and most active framework in the development of appropriate mechanisms for investment in this sector, all within the framework of sustainable development of society through the rational use of resources obtained by various bodies in the implementation of seve

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using the Financial Analysis of Financial Information Published in the financial Statements for Predicting Stocks returns of Services and Insurance Sectors
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The aim of this study was to identify the rate of return of the stock through the financial information disclosed by the financial statements of companies both services and insurance included in Iraqi market for securities . The study used a descriptive statistical methods and the correlation matrix for the independent factors , in addition to a regression model for data  analysis and hypothesis . Model included a number of independent variables , which was measured in the size of company (sales or revenue) , and the leverage , in addition to the structure of assets and the book value of owners'  equity in the company , as well as the general price index .Based on the data of (11)companies and for three years, showed the result

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Brokerage Firms under Information Asymmetry and its Effect on Common Stock Trade : Applied Research in the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The research aims to Applied Study in the nature of the impact of information asymmetry for brokerage firms in the common stock trading, The research included the theoretical concepts associated with each of the brokerage firms ,information asymmetry and common stock trading, It used the financial methods on the practical side of the information asymmetry for brokerage firms based in the sector as well as trading volume and spread for common stock , The community of the research included the Iraq Stock Exchange,the sample of research the companies listed which have been trading on its stock for the period August 2015 until December 2015 as well as brokerage firms

amounting to 47 brokerage firm. The resea

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 07 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
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It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the impact of interest rates on the movement of international financial flows (Japan case study) for the period 1985-2005
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يعد الاقتصاد الياباني احد اكبر الاقتصادات الرأسمالية المتقدمة ويحتل المرتبة الثالثة بعد الاقتصاد الأمريكي واقتصاد الاتحاد الاوربي من حيث حجم الناتج المحلي الإجمالي والذي يكاد يقترب من (5) تريليون دولار سنويا.

لقد ادت التطورات المتلاحقة التي شهدها الاقتصاد العالمي وخاصة في حقل التمويل الدولي خلال العشرين سنة الاخيرة الى تصاعد وارتفاع في حجم وحركه رؤوس الاموال الدولية على اوسع نطاق بحيث ا

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