يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The collected premiums and the compensations paid are among the main variables that have a prominent role in determining the level of financial solvency of insurance companies, as the higher the financial solvency of the insurance company, the more attractive it is to the target audience to acquire the company's insurance services.
Hence the importance of the issue of the solvency of insurance companies, as it is one of the critical matters on which the effectiveness of the insurance company and its continuation in the labor market depend.
In this research, we try to clarify the role of collected premiums and compensations paid in determining the level of operational solvency of t
... Show MoreThe Sebkha is considered the evaporative geomorphological features, where climate plays an active role. It forms part of the surface features in Mesopotamia plain of Iraqi, which is the most fertile lands, and because of complimentary natural and human factors turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha lands. The use satellite image (Raw Data), Landsat 30M Mss for the year 1976 Landsat 7 ETM, and the Landsat 8 for year 2013 (LDCM) for the summer Landsat Data Continuity Mission and perform geometric correction, enhancements, and Subset image And a visual analysis Space visuals based on the analysis of spectral fingerprints earth's This study has shown that the best in the discrimination of Sebkha Remote sensing techniques a
... Show MoreAbstract
Financing is one of the important pillars for activating and activating the agricultural sector, through which we can see an agricultural project on the ground. However, supplying the agricultural sector with financial resources requires a credit policy that is capable of making the right financing decision, because the financial resources are limited. The credit policy, and the financing decision, must be the best use not only to provide the necessary money, but to work to provide everything that would develop and activate the agricultural sector.
The transformation of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank of Iraq from specialized banking to the overall would lead to a decrease in the volume
... Show MoreOil is considered the most important source for providing the funds for the national economic sectors. The revenues of oil constitute %95 of the GPD. Therefore, the development of the remaining sectors depend on oil..
The Iraqi Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) depended on the a unified price for all the buyers, That may not reflect the real value of market and did not contribute in marketing the type of heavy oil. Then, to what extent had SOMO been able to market the light and heavy crude oil in a way that contains the expected increase in the crude oil production.
The General Company for Iraqi Cement is regarded as one of the companies that contribute to support the Iraqi economy. It contributes to provide the material of cement which fulfils the consumer and investment need in the markets in competitive prices and not to resort to the importing of the cement from abroad. That would save a great share of the purchase parity of the poor sectors of society. The estimation of production function will contribute to putting the company.
The application functions of the standard production of benefit critical to clarify the actual relationship between production & its components, & allow to clarify the i
... Show MoreThe judgment enjoys many potential sources. If we look at these sources with analytical view that enable us to identify the potentials of strength in them which is the existence of features that distinct each place from the other one, which can be considered opportunities that provide the designer and the planner the possibility to design and planning which is based on subs taken from the reality of the available data of the location.
At this point outstands the role of development sources as one of the processes of re-configuring the place which appear as a result of a reality that requires setting new goals for the society and to achieve these goals it takes observations dealing with the place policies that should be taken, so this
Insurance actions has become a task of the vital foundations on which the international economy depends, where its presence helped in the development of economic resources in which human resource is considered the most important of these resources. Insurance companies play the biggest role in protecting this resource and minimizing the impact of the dangers that verify this condition.Human has worked hard to get rid of the dangers and its harm, and to devise many ways to prevent them. A risk management is considered within human’s creations in order to create a society with fewer negative risks impacts.
On this basis, th
... Show Moreمن الضروري اجراء تحليل الحساسية للمشاريع الاستثمارية التي يتبناها القطاع العام أو الخاص وذلك لسببين ، الاول هو تضمين عامل المخاطرة واللاتاكد عند تقييم المشروع من الناحية الاقتصادية ، حيث لابد من يكون نسبة مخاطرة وعدم تاكد عند تقييم أي مشروع لمجابهة احداث المستقبل الغير متوقعة ، الثاني المنافسة الشديدة بين المنتجات المحلية والمستوردة ، حيث ان تحليل الحساسية يعطينا صورة عن مدى حساسية القيمة الحالية
... Show MorePerformance measurement is considered one of the most important issues in
Measuring performance effectiveness in the educational institutions by maintaining balance among quantity measurable factors. They can be financial or non‐financial factors. Consequently they reflect decisive factors in the success of educational institutions and determining suitable standards and dimensions for their activities and giving it proportional importance. Adopting the idea of Balanced Score Card as one of the modern administrative techniques and methods by educational institutions assists in the development of administrative work, adjusting the performance in addition to achieving comprehensive standard and development of educational universit
... Show Moreتلعب المؤسسات المصرفية دورا مهما و رئيسيا في اقتصاد أي بلد من خلال قيامها في تعبئة مدخرات المجتمع و من ثم توجيهها نحو الفرص الاستثمارية المختلفة التي تزيد من معدلات النمو الاقتصادي و التوظيف الكامل للموارد وكما هو معروف فأن الجهاز المصرفي يؤدي مهام اقتصادية تخضع للتغيرات المستمرة و على الرغم من ان وظائفه التقليدية لازالت على حالها ألا وهي قبول الودائع و منح القروض و التسهيلات الائتمانية نجد أن الوسائل و
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