يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
The great importance that distinguish these factorial experiments made them subject a desirable for use and application in many fields, particularly in the field of agriculture, which is considered the broad area for experimental designs applications.
And the second case for the factorial experiment, which faces researchers have great difficulty in dealing with the case unbalance we mean that frequencies treatments factorial are not equal meaning (that is allocated a number unequal of blocks or units experimental per tre
... Show MoreZernike Moments has been popularly used in many shape-based image retrieval studies due to its powerful shape representation. However its strength and weaknesses have not been clearly highlighted in the previous studies. Thus, its powerful shape representation could not be fully utilized. In this paper, a method to fully capture the shape representation properties of Zernike Moments is implemented and tested on a single object for binary and grey level images. The proposed method works by determining the boundary of the shape object and then resizing the object shape to the boundary of the image. Three case studies were made. Case 1 is the Zernike Moments implementation on the original shape object image. In Case 2, the centroid of the s
... Show MoreIn the present work a dynamic analysis technique have been developed to investigate and characterize the quantity of elastic module degradation of cracked cantilever plates due to presence of a defect such as surface of internal crack under free vibration. A new generalized technique represents the first step in developing a health monitoring system, the effects of such defects on the modal frequencies has been the main key quantifying the elasticity modulii due to presence any type of un-visible defect. In this paper the finite element method has been used to determine the free vibration characteristics for cracked cantilever plate (internal flaws), this present work achieved by different position of crack. Stiffness re
... Show Moreتهدف الدراسة إلى معالجة مشكلة تداعيات الأزمة المالية العالمية على أداء الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر لكل من تونس والجزائر، ومن خلال ما يفرضه النظام العالمي المعولم فانه من المؤكد أن الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة لدول الدراسة ستتأثر سلبا بهذه الأزمة لكن بدراجات متفاوتة نظرا لخصوصية كل اقتصاد ودرجة ارتباطه بالاقتصاد العالمي . وقد خلصت الدراسة إلى أن الأزمة المالية العالمية غيرت خارطة توزيع الاستثمارات الأجنب
... Show MoreIn light of the enquiry raised by the Economist Mary Finn in 1995 concluding that high utilization in absorptive capacity of the economy is of inflationary tendency for industrial countries due to the equality between high rates of utilization of absorptive capacity and resource – shortage conditions leading to price inflation, the same idea was used to prove that budget utilization of operational costs and elevating absorptive capacity at the expense of investment budget leads to inflationary tendency that becomes a burden on financing the step- in policy of the Central bank to control prices through its foreign currency reserves at a time when the economy turned into an importer of non- tradable goods and being subject
... Show MoreSolid waste is considered to be one of the rescuers of pollution in case of neglecting conditions and procedures relating to specific processes of laws, systems, and contracts requirements in addition to recommendations of organizations concerned with environment issue. The environments auditing groups of intosai have taking into account the environments control by various conference and recommended that the Board of supreme audit have and environments controlling taking into consideration auditing procedures on waste management ,and also offered on evidences for experiences of members of countries in order to exchange their knowledge's and experiments .the definition of solid waste and their resources ,risks ,man
... Show MoreThis study measures the indicators of social and environmental performance of the contents of the administration's prepared reports on its social and environmental performance by comparing the actual performance with the indicators set within the standards of the Global Reports Initiative (GRI), In preparing this research, the researchers relied on studying the criteria of the Global Reporting Initiative, which aims to achieve a high level of performance disclosure under sustainability, In light of contemporary global trends towards achieving sustainable development and its disclosure and the orientations of economic institutions and units in different countries towards emphasizing the extent of commitment during practicing its a
... Show MoreThe Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average. &nbs
... Show MoreAbstract
Agricultural Bank is an important source of funding Specialist His role in lending to farmers, it imposes a great job in providing the necessary head for any developmental process in the agricultural sector money. The ACB of ancient Iraqi banks, and that because of its importance to the advancement of the national economy and contribute to the development and regulation of the economic sector through the support and the assignment of the Iraqi agricultural sector in various agricultural activities because it is responsible
for the process of granting agricultural loans to farmers bank.
The aim of the internal control in the agricultural banks to
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