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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Feminist Stylistic Analysis of Anti-feminist Poetry in English and Arabic
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Language plays a major role in all aspects of life. Communication is regarded as the most important of these aspects, as language is used on a daily basis by humanity either in written or spoken forms. Language is also regarded as the main factor of exchanging peoples’ cultures and traditions and in handing down these attributes from generation to generation. Thus, language is a fundamental element in identifying peoples’ ideologies and traditions in the past and the present. Despite these facts, the feminist linguists have objections to some of the language structures, demonstrating that language is gender biased to men. That is, language promotes patriarchal values. This pushed towards developing extensive studies to substantiate s

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Pragmatic Analysis of the Use of Intensifiers in Charles Dickens’ Hard Times
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The present study investigates the use of intensifiers as linguisticdevices employed by Charles Dickens in Hard Times. For ease of analysis, the data are obtained by a rigorous observation of spontaneously occurring intensifiers in the text. The study aims at exploring the pragmatic functions and aesthetic impact of using intensifiers in Hard Times.The current study is mainly descriptive analytical and is based on analyzing and interpreting the use of intensifiers in terms ofHolmes (1984) andCacchiani’smodel (2009). From the findings, the novelist overuses intensifiers to the extent that 280 intensifiers are used in the text. These intensifiers(218) are undistinguished

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
An Analysis of Textual Themes in M.A Theses and Ph. D. Dissertations Written by Iraqi EFL Learners
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The present study investigates the realization and significance of textual themes in the organizational structure of M.A theses and Ph.D. dissertations, namely: the abstracts, introductions and conclusions, since in such parts the students depend on their own expressions, styles and constructions to express different viewpoints, plans, inferences, etc. The study also investigates the similarities and differences between M.A theses and Ph.D. dissertations concerning the use of textual themes;it sets out to conduct a detailed analysis of textual themes used in such texts. In conducting such an analysis, the study adopts Halliday's (1994) approach of textual themes. The results of such an analysis have clearly shown that, in spite of the di

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Multimodal Analysis of Hyperbolic Devices in Advertisements of Health and Beauty Products
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         This paper examines the use of one of the most common linguistic devices which is hyperbole. It shows how hyperbolic devices are used as an aspect of exaggeration or overstatement for an extra effect in which the speaker can use hyperbole to add something extra to a situation in order to exaggerate his idea or speech. It is, like other figures of speech, used to express a negative or positive attitude of a specific unit of language. Thus, this paper is set against a background of using hyperbole concerning two main fields (advertisements and propaganda). So, the use of hyperbole will be implied by analyzing them concerning their meaning) literal and non-literal).  Methodology of this

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Spatial analysis of rural services in the district of Fallujah, Zgharit village, as a model
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          The study of services in villages is one of the imperative matters that must   be focused on, because it leads to increased attention, which reduces the differences between the countryside and the urban. The extent of its.

  It is well known that community services need to be reached by a person, unlike the anchor services that reach people, here the population distribution plays an important and prominent role in signing these services, so the dispersed distribution pattern and the gathering pattern appeared in the distribution, thus an effect on the time and distance that the person walked to obtain The services are community-based. Therefore

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Publication Date
Sat May 17 2025
Journal Name
سفير برس
استثمار الذكاء الاصطناعي في تحليل البيانات الضخمة داخل المؤسسات العلمية
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تناول المقال موضوع استثمار الذكاء الاصطناعي في تحليل البيانات الضخمة داخل المؤسسات العلمية، وركز على توضيح أهمية هذا التكامل في تعزيز الأداء الأكاديمي والبحثي. استعرضت المقالة تعريفات كل من الذكاء الاصطناعي والبيانات الضخمة، وأنواع البيانات داخل المؤسسات العلمية، ثم بينت أبرز التطبيقات العملية مثل التنبؤ بأداء الطلبة، والإرشاد الذكي، وتحليل سلوك المستخدمين، والفهرسة التلقائية. كما ناقشت المقالة التحدي

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Trends of University Professors towards the Role of Social Networking Websites in Shaping Public Opinion about the Security Crises
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Social networking sites represent one of the modern communication technologies that have contributed to the expression of public opinion trends towards various events and crises of which security crisis is most important being characterized by its ability to influence the community life of the public. In order to recognize its role in shaping opinions of the educated class of the public that is characterized by a high level of knowledge, culture and having experience in dealing with the media. Its advantage is that they have an active audience by expressing their views on the situations, events, and news published on them as well as expressing their attitudes and sympathy with the events. So a number of questions are included in the ques

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
السلوك الاجتماعي ضمن بعض الاحياز الداخلية والجوارية للاسكان الافقي المخطط لذوي الدخل المحدود في المنطقة العربية
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Benford’s law to appreciation the risk in financial transactions: Application study in Baghdad University
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The financial fraud considers part of large concept to management and financial corruption, the financial fraud is appeared especially after corporate, that is Emerge agency theory, that is because recognize relationship between the management company and stakeholder, that is through group from constriction in order to block the management to fraud practice, that on the basis was choose another party in order fraud this practice and give opinion on financial statement, that consider basis decision making from stakeholder to basis the report auditor about creditability this is statement that reflect real activity for the company.The Auditor in order to lead work him Full professionalism to must using group from control Techniques, that is

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Benford’s law to appreciation the risk in financial transactions: Application study in Baghdad University
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The financial fraud considers part of large concept to management and financial corruption, the financial fraud is appeared especially after corporate, that is Emerge agency theory, that is because recognize relationship between the management company and stakeholder, that is through group from constriction in order to block the management to fraud practice, that on the basis was choose another party in order fraud this practice and give opinion on financial statement, that consider basis decision making from stakeholder to basis the report auditor about creditability this is statement that reflect real activity for the company.The Auditor in order to lead work him Full professionalism to must using group from control Techniques, that is

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