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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Commercial banks in Iraq had applied in practice different forms of its activities upon surplus funds that deposited from individual, firms and many governments units
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These deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .

The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank.           &nbs

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Gulf Economist
The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Obstacles to employing social media applications in measuring public opinion
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Media and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Social orientation of the marketing and its role in the competitive strategies
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     This research shed light on the relationship between the social orientation of the marketing (interests of the Organization ,the welfare of society, satisfaction the customer) strategies competitive dimensions of (cost leadership strategy, differentiation strategy, focus and strategy), As well as to to seek to achieve a number of knowledge and applied goals, and represented the field research problem extent of interesting researched the application of social orientation and interest in achieving competitive strategy and omission of this interest in the hotels the surveyed Organization, Based on this problem, and to clarify the relationshi

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The social imagination and its representations in the paintings of students of the Department of Art Education
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The aim of this research is to identify how to employ the social imagination and its representations in the paintings of the students of the Department of Art Education. Students of the Department of Art Education in the light of this tool, and the researcher reached a number of results, the most important of which are:
1. The indicator of the social imagination in the excitement of the artist and the recipient, because the representations are embodied in forms within the painting and close to reality.
2. An artistic sample of the representational imagination and the creative imagination was found to be more than the imaginary imagination.
3. Individual symptoms related to the term.
4. The representations of the socia

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Smoking and Social Behavior
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of governance in the evaluation of the social performance of the economic units
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The aim of this investigation is to study and analysis the role of governance in the evaluation of the and social performance of the economic units to be addressed through the concept of corporate governance and then to the social performance and its relationship to corporate governance.

The most important obtained results from this research is that the corporate governance of extreme importance, and derive their importance from being an essential tool to contribute to the transparency and fair disclosure of the financial results of economic units in the fight against financial and administrative corruption in economic units, thus providing protection and confidence of all parties, and the evaluating soci

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2012
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Social Media in Changing Media
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Media theories and studies have provided many diligences on the concept of social media and the circle of influence, including the theory of social marketing which deals with how to promote ideas espoused by the elite in a society to become a recognized social value. The emergence of social networks provided a revolutionary breakthrough, taking the media to unprecedented horizons; and giving its users great opportunities to influence and move across borders without restrictions and censorship, except in a relatively limited manner.

So, the emergence of social media has created channels of live broadcasting from its audience in a method of development that changes the essence of the known communication theories; a

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Function of Urban Space in strengthen social interaction through Time
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problem of the research is the decline of the role of urban space with time as an influential system in societal relations. The research aims to define indicators for achieving social interaction in the city, and to determine indicators for achieving integration in the urban space, and to study the relationship between the integration of urban space and community interaction over time. the research assumed that by distinguishing the social interaction space from the urban space and developing urban spaces in order to be truly interactive spaces, this will help us achieve social interaction and build a positive relationship between them, which enables us to achieve integration within the urban spaces leading to social interaction. Because

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Implications of Social Solidarity in Islam
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That interdependence in Islam is cooperation, love and fraternity and give and take
and let him look rich to the poor, every Muslim is himself liable hungry and poor no matter
how many races and colors. That interdependence is cruel, spending for God and is the
greatest supporter of charities that deal with housing, food and medicine for the unemployed
and needy, and social solidarity the consolidation of the values of brotherhood and love,
where is the greatest support of corrupt and concerted community and causes prosperity in
societies and has a significant impact on the unity of Muslims and their club and their
collection. The Islamic regime tops major systems in entrusting the achievement claimed the
lives of

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