يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In the mist of developments in the course of scientific research in general and humanities in particular and the accompanying changes in the visions and policies inspired by the need for these sciences to follow the qualitative methods in dealing with many of the topics or problems that require for their solution to obtain qualitative information which can be provided by resorting to quantitative research. Therefore, a new trend has emerged in many public relations› researchers who believe that qualitative research methods should be used by establishing scientific foundations and methodological classification based on the use of these methods and determining the nature of the subjects applied in them to reach results that are character
... Show Moreان الاستثمار في راس المال البشري االمتمثل بالقوى العاملة مرتبط بالتنمية المستدامة وان الانسان هو الثروة الحقيقية للأمم. والانفاق على التعليم تكون له انعكاسات ايجابية على الواقع الاقتصادي ووالاجتماعي والسياسي. ومن اجل تحديد العوامل المؤثرة على القوى العاملة تم تحليل العلاقة السببية (كرانجر) بين القوى العاملة و عدد الخريجين والسكان وعدد الجامعات والناتج المحلي الاجمالي والانفاق على االتعليم العالي ، بوجو
... Show MoreDespite Iraq's possession of the energies material, human and agricultural resources and great economic but that contribution of the agricultural sector in the total gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product in the Iraqi economy remained low and declining continuously since the nineties of the last century, as well as the inability of agricultural production to meet the country's needs of food . The food gap increased strategic food crops until it reached 1049 thousand tons in 2010. On this basis, there is a need to study and analysis the behavior of the function of gross fixed capital format
... Show MoreThe interest in the intellectual capital and its development is a civilized necessity imposed by the requirements of the times and cannot imagine an advanced society in its potential productivity in poor efficiency of human capital, and features the work environment change permanently, putting the management of financial companies against a constant challenge toward coping with new developments in this changing environment and this is not taken unless owned by these companies qualified human resources and the provision of Culture organizers have, which manifested itself with the research problem by the following two questions:
- Did the intellectual capital value specific financial and
يحاول البحث الحالي استكناه العلاقة بين عوامل الامن الانساني المفقودة في محافظة البصرة وبين موجة الاحتجاجات الواسعة التي اجتاحتها في تموز من عام 2018، اذ ان هذه المحافظة التي تعد ثالث أكبر المدن العراقية، والمطلة على المنفذ البحري العراقي الوحيد، والتي تحتوي على اكبر حقول للنفط تزود الموازنة العامة في العراق بما يقرب من 95% من العائدات المالية تعاني منذ سنوات طويلة من عدم انعكاس تلك الثروة على واق
... Show Moreabstract
the research discussed a stage of strategic management. The strategic of the evaluation of the proposed strategy through feedback is to ensure that it is implemented with the least possible variation. The research aims at evaluation a proposed strategy for the Ministry of Planning for the years 2018-2022 in line with the orientations of the state, taking into account the surrounding environmental conditions. It relies on scientific bases and steps to formulate the strategy The extent of the strategy suitability was tested through a set of statistical means and its objectivity was verified through a survey of a number of specialized experts who were selected in accordance with the principle
... Show MoreDuring the educational practices in the Spanish department at the Faculty of Languages , University of Baghdad , we noticed that the personal pronouns in effect replaced by the direct and indirect characterized hardly be expressed , and the difficulty of her education.
Rationale: I chose this topic because the personal pronouns differ between the Spanish language and the Arabic language. We believe that this study may be useful not only for language teachers, but also for students, because it can contribute to a greater awareness of and correct weaknesses.
Objectives: To apply the model from which to address the problems in the use of personal pronouns Spanish , and the difference between effect of direct and indire
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the impact of the quality of the audit on the Earnings Quality, for a sample of private joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, as the research sample included (14) private and listed joint stock companies in issuing their financial statements for the period from (2010-2018), as well as companies The audit offices in charge of auditing these companies, which number (18) companies or an audit office, and the research relied on two main models for measurement, as the first model reflects the assumed relationship between independent variables represented in the characteristics of external audit quality and measuring the extent of its impact on the dependent variable represented in the Ea
... Show MoreMarriage as a social case began Almighty God created Adam, peace be upon him then created from the rib Eve to be the first couple of human beings on the face of the earth and the formation of the first social family in the land, human and picked up this social reality through the generations, but in different shapes and purposes, but the mating process is one. So I got the divine religions and organized that life, especially in Islam, as explained every aspect of the life of the role and practice of marriage and had a large share in this organization and I got many Quranic verses and the Hadith.
With different civilizations, many of the marriage ceremony appeared in ancient societies take several forms of marriage.
But marriage and