يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Marriage as a social case began Almighty God created Adam, peace be upon him then created from the rib Eve to be the first couple of human beings on the face of the earth and the formation of the first social family in the land, human and picked up this social reality through the generations, but in different shapes and purposes, but the mating process is one. So I got the divine religions and organized that life, especially in Islam, as explained every aspect of the life of the role and practice of marriage and had a large share in this organization and I got many Quranic verses and the Hadith.
With different civilizations, many of the marriage ceremony appeared in ancient societies take several forms of marriage.
But marriage and
The research aims to measure the impact of the quality of the audit on the Earnings Quality, for a sample of private joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, as the research sample included (14) private and listed joint stock companies in issuing their financial statements for the period from (2010-2018), as well as companies The audit offices in charge of auditing these companies, which number (18) companies or an audit office, and the research relied on two main models for measurement, as the first model reflects the assumed relationship between independent variables represented in the characteristics of external audit quality and measuring the extent of its impact on the dependent variable represented in the Ea
... Show MoreThe texts of the buying and selling are many and varied , diversity of materials movable and immovable property , especially in the old Babylonian period (2004-1595 BC.M) , movable materials are agricultural materials such as grain, various kinds and industrial products of animal such as leather , wool , etc., as well as slaves and the slave women which can
Objective: To identify causes of maternal death in Mizan Aman and Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals
Methodology: A case control study on 595 charts, 119 cases and 476 controls was conducted in Mizan
Aman & Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals. Data was analyzed by STATA 13.1. Propensity score
matching analysis was used to see causes of maternal death.
Results: Hemorrhage were the main direct causes of maternal death which accounts 47.9% (β =0.58
(95% CI (0.28,0.87)) in hospital but when projected to population based the sample (β =0.26 (95% CI
(0.22,0.31)). Followed by infection 36 (25.21%) (β = 0.50 (95% CI (0.08, 0.92)). when projected to
population based the sample PIH 7.6%) is significant cause (β = 0.16
We are, today, facing a torrent of information, ideas, images and videos due to advances of communication technology and electronic publishing. In addition to the proliferation of social networking sites that allow individuals to use them and participate in their channels without any restrictions limiting their freedom in publishing. Due to these sites many terms have emerged like alternative media which use internet and its various techniques to serve its objectives notably the freedom of expression without restrictions. This research studies the phenomenon of interactive media i.e. alternative media through Facebook along with the freedom that makes it spreading in the society and the relation of individual freedom with social diversit
... Show MoreAbstract:
The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im
... Show MoreThe concept of deficit in public budget becomes a chronic economic phenomenon in most of the world, whether the advanced countries or developing countries. Despite the difference in the visions of the economic schools to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the opinion that prevailed is the necessity of the state to reduce the public spending which led to a continuous deficits in the public budget which consequently increased the government borrowing ,increase income taxes and wealth, consequently this weakened the in motivation in private investment which contributed to the increase of in factionary stagnation , so that governments have to cover the lack of local funding sources which become difficult to be eq
... Show MoreAbstract:
the current research aims at analyzing the efficiency of the private university teaching that recently expanded after 2003 ,;besides , the commitment of the private colleges ,definitely Al-Maamun and Al-Mansour colleges with strategy of the ministry of higher education and scientific research. This could be done through many indications that measure the efficiency of the private university teaching , including ( the indication of the efficiency of using human resources and efficiency in using the materialistic indications. But the human efficiency in these colleges , including the sample of the research ( Maamun
... Show Moreاهمية البحث والحاجة اليه:
تكتسب الدراسات الخاصة بالتعليم العالي ، اهمية حيوية من حيث كونها تتطرق الى محور مهم من محاور العلم والثقافة في المجتمع الذي يحدد اتجاه ومدى حركة التقدم الاقتصادي والاجتماعي والعلمي فيه ، فضلا عن كونه تعبيرا مباشرا عن آمال وطموحات المجتمع وتوفير ماتحتاجه عملية البناء والتقدم والتطور في جميع مجالات الحياة وفي جميع التخصصات0
... Show MoreThe science of interpretation is considered one of the most important sciences due to its primacy and high status. Because knowledge is honored with the honor of its owner and related to it, and the science of interpretation is related to the Book of God, and from this importance emerges the importance of writing on a subject (from the terms of social organization in the Holy Qur’an); Because it deals with a matter that is considered a necessity in a place, and I called the research (from the terms of social organization in the Holy Qur’an - an analytical study), and the reason for choosing this topic was to clarify those terms and link them to our contemporary reality in order for them to be beacons of guidance and guidance for thos
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