يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
يتناول هـذا البحث بالتحليل التفاعل و التنسيق بين السياستين الماليـة و النقديـة و اثر هذا التفاعل و التنسيق على الاستقـرار و النمـو الاقتصـادي، و كيف ان الآثار المالية للسياسة النقدية قد تحفز الإجراءات الخاصة بالسياسة النقدية و معالجة الآثـار الجانبيـة و طبيعـة التفاعل و الارتداد بين إجراءات كلتا السياستين و أثرهما في التـوازن الاقتصـادي العــام، و تم في ثنايا البحث توضيح مسوغات التنسيق و مدى ضرورة ذلك بهد
... Show MoreThe business environment is witnessing great and rapid developments due to the economic and technological development that has caused damage to human beings, which requires the need to reduce this damage and work to protect the environment and participate in supporting the social aspects. This requires economic resources to be realized by the economic units. Economic development in preserving the environment that has caused damage and supporting the social aspects that preserve human rights, enhance their position and satisfy their needs in society. Global professional organizations, the United Nations and stakeholder representatives have been issuing the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) to find guidelines for the preparation of
... Show MoreIn light of the increasing importance of interim financial statements they provided these lists of information that enables users of accounting information to make wise investment decisions and predict the company's activities in light of changes the updated rather than wait until the end of the year and accessing information provided by the annual financial statements. In light of this research has come to the most important set of conclusions the adoption of interim financial information has been audited by the external auditor to the availability of basic qualitative characteristics in the accounting information contained in the (appropriate and timely manner, reliability and comparability) and this in turn leads to the impact on reli
... Show MoreThis research aims to know the reality of succession planning in the researched organization and how it occupies the important jobs in the organization and its readiness for sudden and urgent events that lead to the vacancy of these jobs, and the importance of this research is that it is one of the rare Arab and Iraqi studies and research in this field, as it is one of the first researches It deals with the reality of succession planning in light of the retirement law No. (26) of 2019, and the research problem was the absence of consecutive planning programs and the weak preparation of suitable candidates to face sudden and urgent conditions as replacements for current leaders who occupy the leading and key positions in the depar
... Show MoreWill address this research interaction and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies and the impact of this interaction and coordination on economic stability and growth، and how the financial implications of monetary policy may stimulate action monetary policy and treatment side effects and the nature of responsiveness and bounce between procedures both two policies and their impact on the balance of overall economic and explained in the folds of searchjustifications coordination and the extent necessary in order to address the imbalances in economic activity through twinning actions of monetary and fiscal، has embodied this coordination and interaction between policies and their impact m
... Show MoreRecently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t
... Show MoreThe status of the semi total stoppage and non-use and waste of economic made studying and analyzing Dutch disease of high importance because it is a major cause in aggravation of this status which happened to the Iraqi economy in almost complete way and the relative big importance that oil source has and its domination on the largest percentage in the gross domestic product and exports that Iraqi economy is relying largely in funding the national budget made the concentration of the study on this subject an important and necessary within the important economic events that Iraqi economy witnessed after 2003 till 2016 to give a clear and an overall picture of the reality of the unilateral Iraqi economy under the status of semi tota
... Show MoreUnited nation determined many basic climatic effects which affect the crust of Earth.
And the most important one is the climatic change and its effect on environmental, economic,
social, and political effects. So, the amount of rain which is considered as one of climatic
changes in Iraq should be studied.So, this research explains the factors which affect rain, its
overall average, the variation in the amounts of rain, the amount of yearly rain and variation
in both yearly and monthly rains by using standard variation and yearly fluctuation.As a
result, it is concluded that the number of rainy days doesn't mean an increase in rains amount.
And there's variation in rains amount in all study areas which is contrastive
The oil exports play a vital role in supporting economic development and raise the economic growth. The oil exports can increase the economic growth via three main channels which are supporting the productive, distributive and service sectors; increasing the investment and capital formation; and increasing the employment rate.
However, the oil exports did not have an important role in increasing the economic growth in Iraq. Therefore, it also did not provide the required support to other economic sectors, neither participated in increase the employees’ skills nor increase the investment rate. It may slightly contribute in enhancement the infrastructure that can attract the public and private investments
... Show MoreForeign trade receives a good deal of economists' attention for its active contribution to economic growth, and imports of goods and services that could not be produced locally constitute an important share of the local economy. Agricultural imports constitute an important share of the total imports due to their role in fulfilling the needs of local markets; however, the agricultural sector in Iraq contributes no more than a limited share of the country's need, which has encouraged the import of a variety of fruits, vegetables and strategic crops and different types of red and white meat. For the sake of identifying the factors affecting the demand on agricultural imports in Iraq, the following factors has been analyzed: th
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