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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The construction of Investment Portfolios in the Iraq Stock Exchange: Market Timing Vs. an Efficient Selection
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Abstract

         Uncertainty, the deeply-rooted fact that surrounding the investment environment, especially the stock market which just prices have taken a specific trend until they moved to another one for its up or down. This means that the volatility characteristic of financial market requires the rational investor an argument led towards the adoption of planned acts to gain greater benefit in the goal of wealth maximizing. There is no possibility to achieve this goal without the burden of uncertainty and the risk of systematic fluctuations of investment returns in the financial market after the facts of  efficient diversification have pro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Joint audit and its impact on the market value of firms listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The research aims to investigate the possibility of joint auditing in improving the market value of Iraqi companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The sample was represented by 10 Iraqi companies listed in the Iraq market for the period from 2014-2017 (2 years before implementation and 2 years after implementation) and the research was based on the idea that joint auditing enhances investor confidence and raises their level of security as a result of providing quality and reliable reports, and thus This indicates good news in the market that reflects on the performance of stocks and the market value of companies that adopt joint auditing. The results of the analysis indicate an improvement in the market value, but this improv

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Sustainable Accounting indicators that related with create value for the firm
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The business environment is witnessing great and rapid developments due to the economic and technological development that has caused damage to human beings, which requires the need to reduce this damage and work to protect the environment and participate in supporting the social aspects. This requires economic resources to be realized by the economic units. Economic development in preserving the environment that has caused damage and supporting the social aspects that preserve human rights, enhance their position and satisfy their needs in society. Global professional organizations, the United Nations and stakeholder representatives have been issuing the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) to find guidelines for the preparation of

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
المجلة القانونية العلمية المحكمة
الضمانات القانونية لتنفيذ الالتزامات الضريبية في عمل السلطة المالية في جمهورية العراق دراسة مقارنة
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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Islamic banks in facing the financial crisis in Iraq from 2012-2014
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The purpose of the research is to identify the role of Islamic banks in facing the financial crisis in Iraq for the period 2012-2014, and highlight the various factors that contributed to the emergence of the financial crisis, as well as to identify the problems and challenges facing the Islamic banking business in Iraq and identify the reasons and find appropriate solutions, And the development of treatments to avoid the occurrence of such problems and overcome them. The main findings of the research are as follows,Islamic banks (the sample of the study) were affected by the global financial crisis indirectly, as the financial crisis turned into an economic crisis affecting the real economy, because the activity of Islamic banks is more

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Banking liquidity and the possibility of invested it in enhancing the solvency For a number of commercial banks in Iraq
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The primary function of commercial banks is the process of converting liquid liabilities such as deposits to illiquid assets, (also known as a loan), liquid assets, (aka cash and cash equivalent) in a balanced manner between liquid and illiquid assets, that guaranteed the preservation of the rights of depositors and the bank and not by converting liquid liabilities into liquid assets in a very large percentage. This comes from its role as depository and intermediary institutions between supply and demand, therefore, we find that the high indicators of bank liquidity and solvency may reflect a misleading picture of the status of commercial banks, to some extent in terms of the strength of their balance sheets and

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuation on the budget Deficit base in Iraq for the period (2003-2020)
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Abstract

                 The research dealt with a studying the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the rules of financial discipline, which is the rule of budget deficit in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2020) as it is one of the quarterly economies that rely mainly on volatile oil revenues that fluctuate with oil prices in global markets, and therefore the general budget suffers. from The state of instability and then the government resorts to borrowing for a long time . this deficit in the general budget and increase the debt burden in the public debt.The research aim to measure and study the impact of oil price flu

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The mechanisms of generation of Unemployment in Iraq and its types and calculating the Disguised of it: Analytical Study for the period 2003-2015
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     The objective of this study is to attempt to provide a quantitative analysis to the causes of unemployment  in Iraq and its mechanisms of generation, as well as a review of the most important  types of both visible and invisible unemployment, and an attempt to measure the disguised  unemployment  and analyze the causes. The problem of the research lies in the fact that the Iraqi Economy has been suffered  for  a long time although its characterized by abundant  physical and natural  resources, from the existence of the  phenomenon of unemployment  in the previous two types. Causing a lot of economic problems, represented by the great waste of resources and

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the efficiency of the Economic performance of the general company for Vegetable oil Industry for the period (2003-2007)
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The State company for vegetable oils industry one of the most dynamic

companies in the Iraqi economy and is one of the companies manufacturing(food) that takes astrategic dimension and production within the concept of food security, this as well as to reduce dependence on imports and operation of national manpower.This study aims to describe the performance of the State company for vegetable oils industry for the period (2003-2007) which was characterized by economic and security instability of the country and give an accurate picture of their efficiency and their capacity to produce during this Period.    

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