يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Language is a vehicle for social values and ideologies that a man intends or attempts to express. Dramatic texts are one of the discursive practices that embody values and ideologies. What is expressed in dramatic text is deliberate because it is meant to affect other’s values, trends and ideologies in one way or another. Such ideologies and values are not explicit. To bring them out requires putting language under scrutiny to unveil what is implied. The present study attempts to analyze a dramatic script entitled Advice to Iraqi Women by the British playwright Martin Crimp in an attempt to unveil the intended political ideologies underlying the text. The title reflects a political aspect embedded in the word “Iraqi” that
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify small and medium enterprises in accounting thought in terms of definition and concept, and this international financial reporting standard for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the theoretical aspect. As for the practical aspect, the small and medium-sized enterprises standard has been applied to the financial statements of the company in question, the preparation of the opening entry on the date of the transition, the requirements of measurement and the accounting disclosure on the date following the application of the standard, and the preparation of the company's financial statements and the accompanying explanations according to the standard of small and medium-sized enterprises. The r
... Show MoreThe imbalances and economic problems which it face the countries, it is a result of international economic developments or changes or global crises such as deterioration in trade, sharp changes in oil prices, increasing global indebtedness, sharp changes in foreign exchange rates and other changes, all that, they affect the economic features of any country. and These influences vary from one country to another according to the rigidity of its economy and its potential in maneuvering with economic plans and actions that would reduce the impact or avoidance with minimal damage. Therefore, the countries that suffer from accumulated economic problems as a result of mismanagement and poor planning or suffe
... Show MoreSummery of the Study: The Israeli interest in Iraq was not the result of the 2003 US war, which ended with its occupation, but Iraq was still at the top of Israeli concerns, as it was due to its interest and desire to occupy the Zionist movement for a number of reasons, most importantly its religious position in the Jews and control It is a sacred religious duty, so Israel has employed all its organs, institutions, relations and espionage networks in order to penetrate it and perpetuate its existence, and succeeded in achieving its foreign policy objectives at a time when the area was open to it without opposition or competition thanks to its strategic alliance with the states Of the United States of America, which has been able to penet
... Show Moreتعد الدیمقراطیة الخیار المناسب للمشكلات والأزمات التي تواجه أقطار الوطن العربي بـشكل عـام والعـراق ٕ بــشكل خــاص، فهــي لا تقــدم المعالجــات والحلــول الآنیــة لهــذه المــشكلات والأزمــات فحــسب،وانما تــضع الأطـــر والسیاقات لنمو وتطور النظام السیاسي وبناء هیكل دولة عصریة حدیثة. وفي الوقت الذي تحظى فیه الجوانب المؤسسیة بأهمیة قصوى فـي إطـار العملیـة الدیمقراطیـة، فـان غیابهـا یعمل على تشویه هذه ا
... Show More: تفرض مرحلة إعادة بناء الدولة أو مرحلة بناء الدولة حالتين متقاربتين، لكن تختلف تجربة كل منهما عن األخرى، ففي الحالة األولى نعني بها أن دولة ما متكاملة المقومات سواء القانونية أو السياسية أو االقتصادية، وتمتلك هذه الدولة الشرعية القانونية واالعتراف الدولي، لكن تتعرض هذه الدولة لألزمة سواء كانت ثورة أو انقالب أو احتالل، وإلى السقوط ونهاية نظامها السياسي القانوني ومن ثم إعادة بناء الدولة ومنظومتها السياسية..
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This study aimed to identify the business risks using the approach of the client strategy analysis in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process. A study of business risks and their impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process has been performed to establish a cognitive framework of the main objective of this study, in which the descriptive analytical method has been adopted. A survey questionnaire has been developed and distributed to the targeted group of audit firms which have profession license from the Auditors Association in the Gaza Strip (63 offices). A hundred questionnaires have been distributed to the study sample of which, a total of 84 where answered and
... Show MoreThe economic units always sought to maintain its market position and Trchinh the technology management and modern methods that will support success factors .vdila about it has become a customer and one profitability analysis of the most practical way benefit of economic units as modern management focus their attention on achieving this satisfaction, as the customers make up the axis of the success of every organization and that there are many government units aiming to profit directs attention to customers and the number of these units increased continuously. The administration used the customer profitability analysis in order to obtain information to assist in making and decision-making process. How to use modern tec
... Show MoreThe Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on EOS/Aqua satellite provides diverse measurements of Methane (CH4) distribution at different pressure levels in the Earth's atmosphere. The focus of this research is to analyze the vertical variations of (CH4) volume mixing ratio (VMR) time-series data at four Standard pressure levels SPL (925, 850, 600, and 300 hPa) in the troposphere above six cities in Iraq from January 2003 to September 2016. The analysis results of monthly average CH4VMR time-series data show a significant increase between 2003 and 2016, especially from 2009 to 2016; the minimum values of CH4 were in 2003 while the maximum values were in 2016. The vertical distribution of CH4<
... Show MoreIf the sovereignty of the state is reflected in the taxation of its citizens, this sovereignty can not be completed and completed only if it works on its part to collect its debts, whether voluntary or compulsory, and the debt of the debt arises from the will of the individual and the will of the state alone, The existing management of seizure and collection is based on an unequal relationship between the State and the debtor from which the obligation arises. Naturally, this relationship has obligations and rights on both parties. The researcher used a set of studies and previous research, books and other sources related to the subject of research. This was done through the theoretical and practical aspects, which focused on direct and i
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