يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This paper discusses the role of Auditors' Technological Maturity in reinforcing the quality of auditing profession, through focusing on the concepts of Technological Maturity and quality of auditing profession, as well as designing a proposed model for Technological Maturity which includes five evolutionary and sequential stages, and this proposed model would contribute to reinforce the quality of auditing. This proposed model will be employed in the field of auditing profession because the importance of the development and investment in this profession and the importance of the need for specialized knowledge in Information Technology, and the result of a proposed model is development of technological knowledge for the auditor to reach
... Show MoreIraq is Suffering nowadays from the criminal triad represented by the fiscal and administrative corruption, money laundering and terrorism, which are intertwined in a very related relations, as each of them support the other . Since the over growth has been one of its characteristics leaving behind a very dangerous negative effects whether it was social , economic or even political impacts . As a result , this trial is now represents a high risk that threatens the present and the future of Iraq . On the political , economic and social level , it is well to mention that the poor direct investment , the increasing rates of poverty , unemployment , inflation as well as the smuggling of goreign currency an
... Show MoreThe current research aims know:
1.-level application managers secondary schools and junior high for the tasks set by the high school system in Iraq, from the standpoint of teachers.
- statistically significant differences in the extent of the application of secondary school principals and junior high for the tasks set by the high school system from the viewpoint of teachers depending on the variable (sex, specialty, number of years of service).
The researcher used the descriptive analytical method being considered best suited to such studies, for the purpose of achieving the goals of research, the researcher using the questionnai
... Show MoreHeavy metal (HM) pollution has long been a significant source of environmental deterioration and a problem for the safety of food. Iraqis prefer rice over any other food, and since heavy metals have a direct impact on health, their traces in rice have drawn particular attention. Before cooking rice, it is usual in Iraq to wash and soak it. Some 55 varieties of imported and local rice were sampled from Erbil city markets in 2022 with the aim of determining the concentration of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb before and after soaking. Standard procedure of acid digestions was applied on the raw and soaked samples. The solutions were analyzed using ICPE-9820 Shimadzu. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb (in mg/kg) in the rice samples bef
... Show Moreلقد توسعت وتطورت انشطة منشآت الاعمال بشكل كبير، وقد تمكنت المحاسبة من التعامل مع هذا التطور من خلال ايجاد المعالجات المحاسبية التي تتوافق مع خصوصية هذه المنشآت وطبيعة انشطتها، وقد ادى مجلس معايير المحاسبة الدولية دوراً مهماً في تحقيق توافق المعالجات المحاسبية في غالبية دول العالم مع المنطق الذي يحمله الفكر المحاسبي.
في الربع الاخير من القرن الماضي ظهرت منشآت ذات خصوصية معينة يس
... Show MoreIn this paper, the homotopy perturbation method (HPM) is presented for treating a linear system of second-kind mixed Volterra-Fredholm integral equations. The method is based on constructing the series whose summation is the solution of the considered system. Convergence of constructed series is discussed and its proof is given; also, the error estimation is obtained. Algorithm is suggested and applied on several examples and the results are computed by using MATLAB (R2015a). To show the accuracy of the results and the effectiveness of the method, the approximate solutions of some examples are compared with the exact solution by computing the absolute errors.
A medical- service platform is a mobile application through which patients are provided with doctor’s diagnoses based on information gleaned from medical images. The content of these diagnostic results must not be illegitimately altered during transmission and must be returned to the correct patient. In this paper, we present a solution to these problems using blind, reversible, and fragile watermarking based on authentication of the host image. In our proposed algorithm, the binary version of the Bose_Chaudhuri_Hocquengham (BCH) code for patient medical report (PMR) and binary patient medical image (PMI) after fuzzy exclusive or (F-XoR) are used to produce the patient's unique mark using secret sharing schema (SSS). The patient’s un
... Show MoreEnglish is spoken by its native speakers in two different forms. Reduced form which marks the colloquial and rapid speech so that it is easily produced and a citation or unreduced form which is a characteristic of careful, emphasized and slow speech.
This paper investigates Iraqi EFL university students’ production of the two forms mentioned above. The sample chosen includes twenty fourth year students, of which ten are males and the other ten are females from the Department of English of the College of Languages of the University of Duhok in Kurdistan Region of Iraq in the academic year 2020-2021. The material tested is six connective words which represent the commonest ones in every-day co
... Show MoreMicroalgae have been used widely in bioremediation processes to degrade or adsorb toxic dyes. Here, we evaluated the decolorization efficiency of Chlorella vulgaris and Nostoc paludosum against two toxic dyes, crystal violet (CV) and malachite green (MG). Furthermore, the effect of CV and MG dyes on the metabolic profiling of the studied algae has been investigated. The data showed that C. vulgaris was most efficient in decolorization of CV and MG: the highest percentage of decolorization was 93.55% in case of MG, while CV decolorization percentage was 62.98%. N. paludosum decolorized MG dye by 77.6%, and the decolorization percentage of CV was 35.1%. Metabolic profiling of
... Show MoreThis research deals with unusual approach for analyzing the Simple Linear Regression via Linear Programming by Two - phase method, which is known in Operations Research: “O.R.”. The estimation here is found by solving optimization problem when adding artificial variables: Ri. Another method to analyze the Simple Linear Regression is introduced in this research, where the conditional Median of (y) was taken under consideration by minimizing the Sum of Absolute Residuals instead of finding the conditional Mean of (y) which depends on minimizing the Sum of Squared Residuals, that is called: “Median Regression”. Also, an Iterative Reweighted Least Squared based on the Absolute Residuals as weights is performed here as another method to
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