يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Experiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le
... Show MoreA groundwater quality assessment has been carried out in northeast part of Anbar governorate in western Iraq. We analyzed hydrochemical parameters such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids presence of ions to describe groundwater quality. The study area has the only confined aquifer within the geological formation extended in area. Values of groundwater hydrochemical parameters were ranged from (7) to (7.9) for ph, (1599) to (6800) µmhos/cm for electrical conductivity (EC) and (1048) to (4446) mg/l for total dissolved solids (TDS). The origins and types of groundwater in the area were of marine origin and MgCl2 water type while only (6) samples were of continental origin and Na2SO4 wate
... Show MoreManufacturing industries are at the beginning of the thinking of those who put economic policies in developed countries and also more in developing countries, where manufacturing is the engine of industrial and economic development through its performance and its effective role in the formation of GDP, as well as the great advantages that characterize this sector and affect Largely on sustainable development, as well as its importance in its influential role in protecting national industry through increased exports and reduced imports.
Iraq is one of the countries that rely on its oil economy to rely entirely on the provision of needs and requirements of the state, and this
... Show Moreاثر التواجد العسكري الامريكي على النظام السياسي في العراق
The social contract represents a set of laws and determinants agreed upon by a group of individuals in order to organize society for the better.This agreement guarantees them to live in peace according to the pre-agreed laws, and on the basis of that, it represents the key to resolving the crisis relations between the state and society, and this is what prompted Iraqi society to move towards the formulation of a new social contract through popular protest movements in 2019.To overcome the old social contract that shook the trust between the state and society as a result of its negative outputs at various political, economic and social levels, and many problems emerged that hindered the process of building the social contra
... Show Moreيستهدف البحث الحالي التعرف إلى 1 .بناء مقياس سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 2 .مستوى توافر سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 3 .داللة الفروق اإلحصائية في سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة ً في الع ارق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعا
... Show MoreThe insect is diagnosed and named by the National Center of Biotechnology Information (NCBI), USA as the Mint leaf Beetle Chrysolina herbacea alnadawi (Duftschmid, 1825), (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). The diagnosis was performed depending on the DNA analysis by 73% similarity with Chrysolina herbacea (Duftschmid, 1825) sequence, In the present study. It is recorded as a new insect pest on mint plant Mentha puleguim (L,1753) (Lamiaceae). DNA analysis confirmend that it is recorded for the first time in Iraq and the Arab world as well as the Middle East. Those insects were observed initially during August 2017 in residential gardens of Al-Bonooq district in Baghdad / Iraq.
To ascertain the stability or instability of time series, three versions of the model proposed by Dickie-Voller were used in this paper. The aim of this study is to explain the extent of the impact of some economic variables such as the supply of money, gross domestic product, national income, after reaching the stability of these variables. The results show that the variable money supply, the GDP variable, and the exchange rate variable were all stable at the level of the first difference in the time series. This means that the series is an integrated first-class series. Hence, the gross fixed capital formation variable, the variable national income, and the variable interest rate
... Show MoreTo deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.
The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca
... Show MoreIn this study, the CR-39 detector technique was used, to estimate the uranium concentration from the soil in midland refineries Company (Doura refine (, Baghdad, Iraq. Uranium concentrations in soil samples have been measured using solid state nuclear track detector type CR-39. Nine soil samples were collected from different areas within the Doura refinery and other soil samples were collected form Abu Tayara Street and ALshortaa District outside the refinery for comparison. The results showed variable values for uranium concentrations. The average value of uranium concentration was found to be 0.37 ppm in doura refinery. For areas outside the refinery, the concentration of uranium was 0.008 ppm. Thes
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