ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Financial Reporting Quality (FRQ) is one of the important topics in the financial management, it has the impact on the users decisions, it also effect on many other variables i.e dividend, therefore. This paper aims to provide a diameter of Financial Reporting Quality (FRQ) level for the companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. It also tries to show the FRQ effects on the dividend policy. The study sample was 13 listed companies in the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the period from 2007 to 2011. Kothari et al. 2005 model has been used to measure the FRQ, on the other hand the common stock share of the dividend was used to measure the dividend.
Many conclusions have been driven by the research
... Show MoreThe financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets. In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to provide an overall assessment to the efficiency of the Iraq stocks exchanges (ISE) through specifying well –known models .First, Fama's efficient market hypothesis as a contrary concept to the random walk hypothesis, was performed and it has been found that ISE follows the random process, so the price of the shares can't be predicated on the basis of past information. Second,we use a multifactor model, which so named multiple regression, to explore the link between ISE and the main economic indicators. our empirical analysis finds that every weak associations exists between major ISE measures and main economic indicators.
The investment decision, a critical decision for each investor as it involves risks and uncertain returns, so investors should avoid cases of uncertainty associated with the final decisions they are involved, and the problem of research in individual differences and differences in the behavior of individual investors and reflect the impact of this investment decision in the Iraqi market for securities. Therefore, the research aims to understand and analyze the impact of determinants of investor behavior as an independent variable in investment decision-making as a dependent variable in the Iraqi market for securities, and the research started from two main hypotheses to explore the influence and correlation between research varia
... Show MoreResearch includes three axes, the first is the average estimate time of achievement (day) to work oversight, to five supervisory departments in the Office of Financial Supervision Federal and then choose the three control outputs and at the level of each of the five departments above, and after analyzing the data statistically back to us that the distribution of the times of achievement It is the exponential distribution (Exponential Distribution) a parameter (q), and the distribution of normal (Normal Distribution) with two parameters (μ, σ2), and introduced four methods of parameter estimation (q) as well as four modalities parameter to estimate (
... Show Moreغالبا ما يؤكد موضوع تحليل البيانات المالية على اختبار عناصر التدفق النقدي لغرض النتبؤ بعوائد الاسهم بالمستقبل ، فضلا عن ان المستثمرين دائما ما يبحثون عن زيادة عوائد الاسهم، وان مثل هذا النوع من التحليل يمكن استخدامه لطبيعة المعلومات المحتواة في عناصر التدفق النقدي ، والدرجة التي على اساسها تنعكس مثل هذه المعلومات المالية في اسعار الاسهم من خلال تقويم القيم السوقية للأوراق المالية فتؤدي إلى تغيير قرارات م
... Show MoreThe dividends is one of difficult and important decisions taken by the administration in the economic units, because this decision has a direct impact on the investor and economic unit, so the main objective of any investor is achieve earnings, as well as information borne by dividends about the earnings quality of the economic unit and the level and efficiency of management to achieving earnings.
The research aims at explaining the effect of the dividends policy on the earnings quality in the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The Miller model was used to measu
... Show MoreThe features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater are of great importance and chief in theatrical work since the first emergence of the theater, as the features of the performance were embodied in all Iraqi theatrical performances, but they took personal privacy in some ritual performances because of their differences and similarities between the ritual theatrical performance and the ritual show Al-Khalis, who wanted the researcher to know the similarities and differences in the features of the ritual performance and in the theatrical performance, despite the many transformations that occurred in the theater and affected the features of the performance, but it remained an important and attractive link between the recipient, t
... Show MoreIn this study, the upgrading of Iraqi heavy crude oil was achieved utilizing the solvent deasphalting approach (SDA) and enhanced solvent deasphalting (e-SDA) by adding Nanosilica (NS). The NS was synthesized from local sand. The XRD result, referred to as the amorphous phase, has a wide peak at 2Θ= (22 - 23º) The inclusion of hydrogen-bonded silanol groups (Si–O–H) and siloxane groups (Si–O–Si) in the FTIR spectra. The SDA process was handled using n-pentane solvent at various solvent to oil ratios (SOR) (4-16/1ml/g), room and reflux temperature, and 0.5 h mixing time. In the e-SDA process, various fractions of the NS (1–7 wt.%) have been utilized with 61 nm particle size and 560.86 m²/g surface area in the presence of 12 m
... Show Moreبدأ الاهتمام بموضوع الرضاء الوظيفي في مجال العلوم الإدارية خلال العشرينات من القرن الماضي، من خلال مدرسة العلاقات الإنسانية على يد (التون مايو (Elton Mayo والتي تؤكد فيه على الاهتمام بالعنصر البشري، والذي بدوره يؤثر تأثيراً كبير على الإنتاج، ومن ثم فان زيادة الإنتاج تتحقق من خلال فهم طبيعة الإفراد،