ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
The distribution or retention of profits is the third decision among financial management decisions in terms of priority, whether at the level of theory or practice, as the issue of distribution or retention is multi-party in terms of influence and impact, as determining the optimal percentage for each component is still the subject of intellectual debate because these decisions are linked to the future of the organization and several considerations, The research focus on the nature of the policies followed by the Iraqi banking sector As the sample chosen by the intentional sampling method was represented by the Commercial Bank of
... Show MoreThe dividends is one of difficult and important decisions taken by the administration in the economic units, because this decision has a direct impact on the investor and economic unit, so the main objective of any investor is achieve earnings, as well as information borne by dividends about the earnings quality of the economic unit and the level and efficiency of management to achieving earnings.
The research aims at explaining the effect of the dividends policy on the earnings quality in the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The Miller model was used to measu
... Show MoreSAIs has a pivotal role in enhancing public sector performance through its quest to achieve the greatest possible efficiency and effectiveness in its, so it has to adopt applied framework for abilities building, the research aims to shed light on the role of SAIs and the nature of their work, and the definition for its abilities building, and to prepare a proposal for abilities building applied to work with the SAI in the Republic of Iraq (of the Federal Board of Supreme Audit ),the Researchers reached conclusions, namely: abilities building is the outcome of the interaction between the reality of all of the employees of the SAI and the institution itself and the environment and the specific requirements of the de
... Show MoreAbstract
The research aims to shed light on the extent to which the practices of performance management in achieving organizational excellence in one of the formations and the Ministry of Finance (GCT). The importance of the selection of these organizations is that they occupies a large and exceptional importance in the national economy through income redistribution add it to cover a large part of the state budget revenues, these organizations possess functionally diverse cadre of them pregnant initial certification and other senior and he fairly stable To meet this target, and on the basis of the data search exploratory researcher built model hypothesis for the search included variable impressionist and
... Show MoreThe success of any institution must be based on means to protect its resources and assets from the waste, loss, misuse and the availability of accurate and reliable data by accounting reports to increase its operational efficiency, namely, that the internal control system is considered as a safety valve for top management in any economic unit. The problem is represented by the need for an efficient system, so to ensure its success, there must exist external parties which monitor and evaluate the performance because of its importance by following clear criteria. So, the research problem came to address performance evaluation indicators which are set by the Federal Board of Supreme Audit (FBSA) and identify the extent of its contribution t
... Show MoreThe investment decision, a critical decision for each investor as it involves risks and uncertain returns, so investors should avoid cases of uncertainty associated with the final decisions they are involved, and the problem of research in individual differences and differences in the behavior of individual investors and reflect the impact of this investment decision in the Iraqi market for securities. Therefore, the research aims to understand and analyze the impact of determinants of investor behavior as an independent variable in investment decision-making as a dependent variable in the Iraqi market for securities, and the research started from two main hypotheses to explore the influence and correlation between research varia
... Show MoreThe financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets. In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine
... Show MoreThe changes that have occurred in the business environment and scientific and technological progress, as well as the complexity of administrative problems resulting from its practice of various activities, have led to an increase in the responsibilities entrusted to it, and for the purpose of achieving its strategic objectives, which has made the pillars of corporate governance an inevitable matter required by the nature of modern scientific management of the governorate, the success that companies seek is based on the fertile environment and the dialectical relationship between the individual and the company, and to achieve this success there must be a compatible and harmonious audit environment between the internal and external
... Show More
When the financial resources of individuals and groups available, this will lead to increase the consumption ranges and sometimes reached to excessive especially to the categories that have little awareness about economic importance and its reflections. it seems that consumerism has increased in many countries including Iraq because of many factors, and the most important one is the availability of financial resources as a result of the increase in oil exports as well as the spread of consumption media department at various levels especially.
In the mist of developments in the course of scientific research in general and humanities in particular and the accompanying changes in the visions and policies inspired by the need for these sciences to follow the qualitative methods in dealing with many of the topics or problems that require for their solution to obtain qualitative information which can be provided by resorting to quantitative research. Therefore, a new trend has emerged in many public relations› researchers who believe that qualitative research methods should be used by establishing scientific foundations and methodological classification based on the use of these methods and determining the nature of the subjects applied in them to reach results that are character
... Show More