ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.
The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on
... Show MoreThe skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui
... Show Morethis research aims it measure the technical efficiency of the branches of the General Company for Land Transport, That scattered geographically at country level, by Data Envelopment analysis (DEA) technique, as this technique relies on measuring the efficiency of a set of asymmetric Decision making units, which is one of the nonparametric mathematical methods for and application related to Linear Programming, and this is what helps the General Company for Land Transport to diagnose its branches performance by benchmarking with each other and determine the performance gap. The research found that there is variation in the level of efficiency in the company's branches
This century is witnessing changes in various fields,which have become a challenge to the enterprises in the contemporary business environment, the most important of which is the importance of measurement and disclosure of the role of knowledge capital in the transition to the knowledge economy, which is no longer the land and labor and physical capital resources the basic. Knowledge-based capital has emerged that provides the enterprise with an area of excellence and enhances its position to achieve competitive advantage. The research tackled the concept, objectives, components and importance of knowledge capital, which is fundamental in knowledge management, creating value added and enhancing competitiveness, as well as an
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى قياس مدى التطبيق والتبني للقيادة الملهمة في المنظمات العامة، وقد اشتقت مشكلة البحث النظرية من وجود فجوة معرفية وذلك لقلة الدراسات والبحوث التي تناولت متغير البحث بأبعاده (الرؤية المستقبلية، الثقة بالنفس، تمكين العاملين، ادارة التغيير)، واعتمد البحث المنهج التحليلي عن طريق استعمال الاستبانة في المنظمة التي تم اختيارها وذلك لكونها تعد من المنظمات الاساسية في تقديم الخدمات التعليمية المهمة في
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the change in the impact of the factors of the Corona pandemic on psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia in a sample of Bisha University students and to detect the differences in the phobia (phobia) Covid-19 among the sample members in the measurement before the ban and after the ban was opened, in addition to the differences in psychological sensitivity of The sample has between sizes before and after the spread of the Corona pandemic, as well as the differences in them according to the gender variable (male, female). The researcher relied on the comparative approach. The scale of psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia was applied to a sample of (62) male and female respondents.
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the Objective of study is to measure the quality of medical service level, in the Iraq public hospitals ,presented by special words ,private hospitals, and compare between them, by knowing the level of recipients satisfaction of medical service for all dimensions of quality service, and then measuring satisfaction with the quality of medical service as a whole for both of them, which have been prepared in questionnaire form, included two main directions, first to determine the level of satisfaction when, recipients of medical service is not dimensions quality of service in accordance with the Scale Servqual by (Parasurman et .al 1988), consisting of five di
... Show Moreالمستخلص تهدؾ الدراسة الى ل اٌس مدى التطب كٌ والتبن للم اٌدة ال مٌظة ف المنظمات العامة ولد اشتمت مشكلة الدراسة النظر ةٌ من وجود فجوه معرف ةٌ وذلن لملة الدراسات والبحوث الت تناولت متؽ رٌ الدراسة بأبعاده )الرؤ ةٌ المح طٌ ةٌ, التمك نٌ, الشبكات ب نٌ اعضاء الفر قٌ, الترك زٌ, الم لٌ للتعامل مع حالات عدم التأكد( اعتمدت الدراسة منهج دراسة الحالة عن طر كٌ استعمال استمارة الفحص ف المنظمة الت تم اخت اٌرها دائرة العمل والتدر ب
... Show MoreThis study seeks to identify the possibility of achieving the property of faithful representation of accounting information and measure it by using the standard approach based on mathematical and statistical equations by comparing two financial periods before and after the application of (IFRS-15) Revenue from contracts with customers, during the period. (2014-2018), for the financial statements of the mixed joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, which is one of the main pillars of the economic structure of the country, as a joint investment between the state and the private sector, and has importance in many aspects, including support for projects of public companies, S Absorption and employment of labor, as well as ra
... Show MoreAbstract:
The distribution or retention of profits is the third decision among financial management decisions in terms of priority, whether at the level of theory or practice, as the issue of distribution or retention is multi-party in terms of influence and impact, as determining the optimal percentage for each component is still the subject of intellectual debate because these decisions are linked to the future of the organization and several considerations, The research focus on the nature of the policies followed by the Iraqi banking sector As the sample chosen by the intentional sampling method was represented by the Commercial Bank of
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