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قياس وتحليل الاستدامة المالية للاقتصاد العراقي للمدة ٢٠٠٤-٢٠١٨
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ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The dominance of the consumption pattern of government Expenditure and its impact on economic growth of Iraq for the period 2003-2014
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The importance of government Expenditure policy in economy come from its role leading to the mitigation and adjustment of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables caused by imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply,  It is associated with the efficient management of government Expenditure to reinforcement the relationship between government Expenditure and the overall economic system .

Regarding the Iraqi economy,the increasing in financial rentier after the political change in 2003 has led to finance the budgets Characterized by consumption,The government Expenditure employed to encourage government employment in services jobs, and find different channels for the distribution of

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Real Private Industrial Sector and Role in Comprehension the Labor Force of Iraq to (1990-2009)
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At different stages of the evolution of the modern Iraqi state ears last century did not receive the industrial sectors importance in  great domestic production (GDP) and  that the limited  resources available in the initial stage and the dominance of public sector industry in the late stage , so the continued decline in the contribution  of the private industrial sector in  GDP , and this is why imbalance in the labor market and reduced  demand for manpower in this sector despite the high rates of labor supply and the various skills and levels of investments, their human  and the different geographical distribution , and direction of labor to other economic sectors most  requested of the l

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Determinants of Total Factor Productivity Growth: an Analytical Study of a Cross Section of Countries for the Period (2003-2016)
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            This study tests the effect of a large number of independent variables that control the growth of the total productivity, which amounted to 112 variables, gathered from what is mentioned in the specialized theoretical and applied literature. The data for these variables were taken from global reports of sound international organizations and reliable databases covering the period 1991-2016. The data of the dependent variable, the growth of the total factor productivity, were taken from the database of the world development indicators. The study covered 61 countries for which data were available. The study included three regression models to explain

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)
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The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the efficiency of the Economic performance of the general company for Vegetable oil Industry for the period (2003-2007)
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The State company for vegetable oils industry one of the most dynamic

companies in the Iraqi economy and is one of the companies manufacturing(food) that takes astrategic dimension and production within the concept of food security, this as well as to reduce dependence on imports and operation of national manpower.This study aims to describe the performance of the State company for vegetable oils industry for the period (2003-2007) which was characterized by economic and security instability of the country and give an accurate picture of their efficiency and their capacity to produce during this Period.    

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship of public budget deficit on external debt in lraq with in the framework of joint integration of the period (1990 – 2016 )
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Abstract

The term public budget defects became nowadays a chronic, economical phenomenon, almost all the countries weather advanced or development country suffered from it, despite the different visions to economic schools of a thought to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the prevailed opinion that is needed to rule the role of the state by reducing the public spending which led to continuous deficits in public budget and the consequent upon increase in government borrowing, increase taxes on income and wealth, thus weakening the in contrive for private investment which contributed to the increase of in flationary stagnation, it became a duty to state covered by the lack of financial sources

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Sep 13 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
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It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The mechanisms of generation of Unemployment in Iraq and its types and calculating the Disguised of it: Analytical Study for the period 2003-2015
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     The objective of this study is to attempt to provide a quantitative analysis to the causes of unemployment  in Iraq and its mechanisms of generation, as well as a review of the most important  types of both visible and invisible unemployment, and an attempt to measure the disguised  unemployment  and analyze the causes. The problem of the research lies in the fact that the Iraqi Economy has been suffered  for  a long time although its characterized by abundant  physical and natural  resources, from the existence of the  phenomenon of unemployment  in the previous two types. Causing a lot of economic problems, represented by the great waste of resources and

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Standard Study of the Role of the Tourism Sector in Achieving Economic Growth in Tunisia for the Period (1995-2017
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This study examines the relationship between the increase in the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and GDP during the period 1995-2017, using the methodology of joint integration, causal testing and error correction model. The research found the time series instability of the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the output logarithm but after applying the first differences, these chains become stable, THUS these time series are integrated in the first differences. Using the Johansson method, we found the possibility of a simultaneous integration relationship between the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the logarithm of GDP in Tunisia, and there is a causal relationship in one direc

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Impact of Anticyclones Merge on the Temperature in the stations of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra for the Period (2005-2015)
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           The Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average.                        &nbs

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