ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Insurance is one of effective high-impact activities in the economic and social aspects of development and that the insurance companies after the creation of stability, balance and support other sectors. The insurance of financial institutions with economic and social importance has an impact on the development and help shoulder the burden of risk and distribution. And measuring Indicators of service and cost her help in evaluating the performance and activity of insurance, and the study of sectors needed by society, institutions and individuals and development of the company. Covering all aspects of life and activity. In this study will focus on the insurance sector in the field of car accidents and so plentiful and their problems and d
... Show Morepresent in the environment could constitute a hazard to food security and public health. These can be accumulated in aquatic animals such as fish.
Objective: In this study, selected heavy metals: Copper (Cu), Nickle (Ni), Chromium (Cr) and Iron (Fe) were evaluated in commercial canned fish products (Sardines) that are commonly consumed in Iraq. The canned fish (Sardine) which studied were Yacout Sardine (Morocco), Marina Sardine (Tunisia), Silver Sardine (Morocco) and Salsa Sardine (China).
Methods: Prospective study was done in Baghdad from January to June 2016 . 40 samples of four different foreign brands (10 samples for each brand were obtained): Yacout Sardine (Morocco), Marina Sardine(Tunisa), Silver Sardine (Morocco) and Sals
The study aimed to spread the culture of efficient performance between nursing staffs, which would contribute and achieve health care quality, and to clarify the role of nursing in improving the quality of high-quality health care, as well as to clarify how to reach national standards for the quality of health care in Iraq, Therefore, the study dealt with the efficiency of nursing performance as an explanatory variable, and the quality of health care as a dependent variable. The fact that the health sector is the foundation for building a healthy society free from diseases, so hospital of IBN AL-NAFIS as an institution and it's nursing teams were taken as a community for this study. The results to be objective and reflect the rea
... Show MoreObjective: To establish growth curve for a sample of infertile women and to assess Body Mass Index.
Methodology: Non-probability (purposive sample) of (100) infertile women, who visit Kamal Al-Samaraee
Hospital/ fertility and IVF center . The data are collected through the use of constructed questionnaire, which
consists of two parts. Part 1: consists of (5) items about demographic characteristics, part 2: consists of (4) items
about reproductive status, descriptive statistical analysis procedures (frequency, percentage, Contingency
coefficients, polynomial cube order).
Results: Revealed that the infertile women in the study group had decrease in their Body Mass Index with aging
(with increase of infertility duration
Bank credit function plays an important role in realizing the targets of commercial banks , so that the credit dominate the most of assets for these banks , also the credit contribute by bigger share of operational income for these banks .Bank credit faces
high challenge that it is bank credit risks which hinder realizing goals of bank credit . the researcher discover that in spite of the international accounting standards assured that it is necessary to disclose about risks related assets, which include bank credit, and also disclosure about fund which specified to face probable loss for this credit , but the recent disclosure about bank credit risks and its provision indicate that it faces sever defect which hinder
... Show MoreThe research aims to clarify the COBIT5 framework for IT governance and to develop of a criterion based on Balanced Scorecard that contributes in measuring the performance of IT governance. To achieve these goals, the researchers adopted the deductive approach in the design of balanced scorecard to measure the IT governance at the Bank of Baghdad that was chosen because it relied heavily on IT.
The research has reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that the performance of IT department in the Bank of Baghdad falls within the good level that requires constant monitoring, the most committed items of Balanced Scorecard by the Bank were customer, internal operation, growth and finally the financial item; IT
... Show MoreThe research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is to educate the management of companies operating in the private sector about the advantages and risks of using creative accounting practices, as on the one hand they serve the interests of the company and improve its image, and on the other hand it exposes it to the risks of non-compliance with tax laws and legislation or the risks of default and bankruptcy as a result of exploiting gaps and flexibility in the application Accounting standards, and in line with the objectives and through the research problem that was formulated in the form of a question (Are their creative accounting practices that are reflected in the honesty and fairness of financia
... Show MoreAlthough the obligation to disclose is one of the factors that greatly affect the success of the stock market and achieve the stability of transactions, this obligation should not be understood in absolute terms, as there are secrets for the company and for market participants that should not be disclosed in a way that harms them and thus negatively affects the market.
Accordingly, this study deals with a very important topic, which is the legal regulation of the internal information of the company listed in the stock market, as the exploitation of this information has a positive or negative impact on the price of the security issued by the company.
that It violates the principle of equality
... Show MoreThe subject of the act and its transformations in the presentation is of great importance at the level of study, analysis and interpretation, and through that the researcher adopted the following title (The Dramatic Act and Its Transformations in the Iraqi Theatrical Show). The play of Black Astronomy was chosen as a sample for analysis, and the aim of the research came in order to achieve a special knowledge of the extent of the transformation that occurred between the dramatic structure of the act and theatrical embodiment and its multiple elements of operation in the Iraqi theatrical shows. It was limited to the show of the Iraqi theater in the year (2020) and included the theoretical framework that accommodated three sections. As for
... Show MoreThe study aims to know the preference of the Iraqi consumer of imported dairy products to local, which has increased demand in recent years due to various reasons including commodity dumping policy that Iraq has been suffering since 2003, which has led to decline in the role of local dairy product in our markets and its inability to compete with imported product for different reasons. The research utilized questionnaire as a survey tool of the opinions of a sample of Iraqi 92 consumers in Baghdad/Alrisafa. The questionnaire consisted of twenty questions included the four components of marketing mixture (product quality, price, place, and promotion). Weighted mean and percentage weight used for data analysis. The study showed that the mos
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