ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.
Rights of child in the community crisis Iraqi child model The study aimed to identify the types of violation against children in the Iraqi crisis as well as to develop community coping mechanisms to these violations and promote the rights of the child health psychological , social and legal . the first chapter discusses the research problem and its importance and purpose of the research problem and its importance and purpose of the research and the most important terms in the A- Rights of the child ,B- crisis , chapter 2 rights of the child ensure the historical roots , of children’s rights in the holy quran and the sunnah, and legal rights through the twentieth century and the beginnings of century xx, the se through the twentieth cen
... Show MoreThe summary of this study is to identify the relation ship between exposuing of the
public to foreign satellites and the degree of cultural of Iraqi public . the danger Iraqi public
exposure to foreign satellite specially some groups of the public are still own limited culture
and ideology without enough conscious to attitude of society . such people cun easily be
controlled by satellites , because these satellites may be the only cultural source for them
which may badly affect their behaviour . This study also aims to identify the level of Iraqi
people exposure to foreign satellites and the types and motivations of that exposure , then to
realize the relationship between exposing to foreign satellites and the cultur
After the internal audit as a tool of internal control in any organization, and helps in the evaluation of all internal control activities, as a tool to ensure compliance with the plans and policies to achieve the goals of the institution as much as possible of the efficiency, effectiveness, and should have the Internal Audit full independence and is linked to senior management, and aims to get the credibility and accuracy of information and data, and keep abreast of modern developments.
The practical side includes the preparation of the questionnaire, which included a set of questions that fit the hypothesis of the research, was Tozeiha the research sample consisting of employees of the Internal Audit Department an
... Show MoreIlliteracy has spread in the last years, although it was eliminated in the 1980s. The return of illiteracy brings ignorance, illness, backwardness and regression among nations. It has taken many types, mainly alphabetical, scientific and computer illiteracy. Hence, the increasing nature of illiteracy has attracted the attention of governments and societies alike. This may touch the reality of societies starting with their youth unless those, who are in charge, will find workable solutions for the existing problems. The results of the study revealed that there is a real disaster awaiting the next generation after years of stray, and ignorance of the people in charge who are too engaged in getting their privileges to care about this proble
... Show MoreThe theatrical image represents one of the tools of communication with the other to create a communicative language that is produced and transmitted by the actor and his body through the theatrical space to convey the meaning in all its forms and types. The actor is concerned with the composition and construction of these images. My girl, the image is fragmented and multiple and different. Therefore, based on the foregoing, the researcher has divided his research into four chapters, representing the (methodological framework). First, the research problem, which is manifested in the following question (what is the structure of the fragmented image of the actor's performance? The Iraqi playwright), and secondly: the importance of the resea
... Show MoreThe Industrial Banks in most countries in the world plays an essential and vital role in developing the industrial sector due to its effective importance in the economic and social development. The research aims to study the ability of the Industrial Bank of Iraq to the growth and development of the mixed industrial sector companies through loans granted to them. In addition, the research seeks to study credit policies pursued by the Industrial Bank of Iraq to finance the mixed industrial sector companies. The data of the research has been collected from the financial statements of the Industrial Banks of Iraq for the period 2007-2011, and by means of questionnaire distributed to a sample of the mixed industrial sector companies in
... Show MoreThe official spokesperson considered responsible for the transmission of information and communication messages that convey the government’s view on the various political and economic issues that affect the public opinion towards the performance achieved by the various governmental institutions and for the purpose of communicating with the media in a positive and effective manner, a number of institutions in the world in general and in Iraq in particular have nominated a spokesman to coordinate the efforts and the dissemination of news and the preparation of press conferences to contribute to the achievement of a positive and effective level between the government and the media, so this study has tackled to deal with the credibility of
... Show MoreNovel has recently received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about
... Show Moreعرفت النظم القانونية انواعا مختلفة من الشركات اذ تعتبر الشركة الوعاء القانوني الاكثر ملائمة لغرض توظيف اموال المستثمرين في مشاريع ذات اهمية والذي يحقق نفا لاصحاب رؤوس الاموال المستثمرة فضلا عن اثرها البالغ على اقتصاد الدول وقد كان للشركة القابضة نصيب من هذا الاهتمام منذ القدم لدى العديد من الدول ووضعت لها احكاما تفصيلية تتناسب مع الاهمية التي يحظى بها هذا النوع من الشركات كونها تجمع لعدة شركات فرعية تسيطر ع
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