ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
أهمية البحث والحاجة إليه:
تبدو لنا المسؤولية الاجتماعية بأنها أحدى الخصائص التي يكتسبها الفرد من بيئته الاجتماعية, بتأثير مجموعة القيم التي تحكم سلوك الأفراد في ذلك المجتمع فتبدأ المسؤولية الاجتماعية بأولى صورها على شكل إدراك الفرد لمتطلبات المجتمع وإدراكه لدوره في المساهمة في أنجاز تلك المتطلبات, وفي الواقع إن الإدراك لوحده لا يكفي لان يمارس الفرد مسؤوليته داخل المجتمع, فيظهر المستوى الأخر و
... Show MoreThe experiment was conducted in field of the University of Baghdad, Jadryia region, Baghdad to measure vibration and performance efficiency of grass mower (machine cutting grass). Vibration in three axes are longitudinal X , lateral Y and vertical Z in four places of mower machine during cutting grass and Practical Productivity, Efficiency and Fuel Consumption measured in this experiment . Factorial design (3 x 2) used, mower speeds included 1.9 3.6 and 6.4 km/hr and engine load included idling and full load according to randomized complete design were used in this experiment. Least Significant Design (LSD) 0.05 was used to compare the mean of treatment. Result were showed that the mower speed 6.4 km/hr recorded high productivity (0.6557 ha
... Show MoreThe majority of statisticians, if not most of them, are primarily concerned with the theoretical aspects of their field of work rather than their application to the practical aspects. Its importance as well as its direct impact on the development of various sciences. Although the theoretical aspect is the first and decisive basis in determining the degree of accuracy of any research work, we always emphasize the importance of the applied aspects that are clear to everyone, as well as its direct impact on the development of different sciences. The measurements of public opinion is one of the most important aspects of the application of statistics, which has taken today, a global resonance and has become a global language that everyone can
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to identify the rate of return of the stock through the financial information disclosed by the financial statements of companies both services and insurance included in Iraqi market for securities . The study used a descriptive statistical methods and the correlation matrix for the independent factors , in addition to a regression model for data analysis and hypothesis . Model included a number of independent variables , which was measured in the size of company (sales or revenue) , and the leverage , in addition to the structure of assets and the book value of owners' equity in the company , as well as the general price index .Based on the data of (11)companies and for three years, showed the result
... Show MoreThese deposits take many forms like current acc, deposits in order to growth and serve national economy Various in varicose perspectives .
The problem of this paper its concern with un applied the mathematical models that used in profitability analysis of current acc , and deposits in view of risk, profit efficiency and financial leverage for this reason the paper discussion use the cumulate mathematical model to solve these problem, that content three variables that be used to measuring profitability by consequent replacement method by stable base and by moving base for 2007 – 2009 applied the data collect from Iraq middle east bank. &nbs
... Show MoreThe research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is determining the extent to which the auditors of the research sample in the Federal Bureau of Financial Supervision adhere to the requirements of the quality control system according to the Iraqi Audit Manual No. The federal financial / research sample with the quality control system according to the Iraqi audit guide No. 7), and the researcher seeks to test the main research hypothesis and sub-hypotheses, and to achieve this, a questionnaire was designed by (Google Form) and distributed electronically to the elements of the research sample, Through the statistical package program (SPSS), the results of the questionnaire were analysed. In light of the applied
... Show MoreThe economic development and intense competition may make economic units neglected the social aspect as a service workers and the environment, the community and focus on the economic side and achieve profitability only, which puts it in a position of accountability of trade unions and bodies, environment, health, civil society organizations and the focus of many studies accounting in order to clarify social activities and disclosed in the financial statements, increasing pressure from multiple parties calling for governments to issue laws and regulations oblige economic units to disclose complete and accurate information in a timely manner for all social activities and be subj
... Show MoreThe research titled (narrations of Imam Muhammad bin Ali al-Baqir (upon him be peace) about washing, in the four books of Sunan - study and analysis -) deals with what was reported from the noble and purified hadiths about him, peace be upon him, through the four hadith works represented by Sunan Abu Dawud (d. 275 AH). And Al-Jami’ Al-Kabir (Sunan Al-Tirmidhi) (d. 279 AH), Sunan Al-Nasa’i (Al-Mujtaba) (d. 303 AH), and Sunan Ibn Majah (d. 273 AH), who is the venerable imam and jurist from the House of Prophethood, as he transmitted many traces from the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace. Upon him and his family, peace be upon him. The study focused on his narrations, including the rulings on washing
Many financial institutions invest their surplus funds in stocks, either to obtain dividends or for trading purposes and to obtain profits from the difference between the cost and the selling price, and investment in shares represents an important part of the financial position of financial institutions applying to the common accounting system of banks and insurance companies, in addition to their impact It is clear on the result of the activity of these institutions.The aim of the research is to define what the shares and their types are, and to indicate the accounting treatments needed to move towards the process of adopting the International Financial Reporting Standard No. (9) and its reflection on its financial statements. I
... Show MoreThe promotion by its means lead a vital and important role at the level of all organizations, whether (industrial or service) in general, and financial markets in particular. The promotion is earns delved to be as one of the main operations which market uses it through various means of financial markets and companies which its shares listed in the aim of (finance or investment), with a view to the implementation and financing of public and private projects the one hand, or with a view to achieving profits through investment of speculative or... For other purposes, on the other hand.Accordingly, we find that the set of public and private goals joint between the financial markets and listed companies respectively, will serve the stra
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