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Stability and Bifurcation of a Cholera Epidemic Model with Saturated Recovery Rate
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In this paper, a Cholera epidemic model is proposed and studied analytically as well as numerically. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by contact with Vibrio cholerae and infected person according to dose-response function. However, the saturated treatment function is used to describe the recovery process. Moreover, the vaccine against the disease is assumed to be utterly ineffective. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All possible equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are determined. The local stability and persistence conditions are established. Lyapunov method and the second additive compound matrix are used to study the global stability of the system. The conditions that guarantee the occurrence of local bifurcation and backward bifurcation are determined. Finally, numerical simulation is used to investigate the global dynamical behavior of the Cholera epidemic model and understand the effects of parameters on evolution of the disease in the environment. It is observed that the solution of the model is very sensitive to varying in parameters values and different types of bifurcations are obtained including backward bifurcation.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 20 2016
Journal Name
Sociological Methods & Research
Mean Monte Carlo Finite Difference Method for Random Sampling of a Nonlinear Epidemic System
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In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained fo

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Scopus (15)
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 25 2016
Journal Name
Earthquakes And Structures
Vibration response of saturated sand - foundation system
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In this study, the response and behavior of machine foundations resting on dry and saturated sand was investigated experimentally. A physical model was manufactured to simulate steady state harmonic load applied on a footing resting on sandy soil at different operating frequencies. Total of (84) physical models were performed. The parameters that were taken into consideration include loading frequency, size of footing and different soil conditions. The footing parameters are related to the size of the rectangular footing and depth of embedment. Two sizes of rectangular steel model footing were used. The footings were tested by changing all parameters at the surface and at 50 mm depth below model surface. Meanwhile, the investigated paramete

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
Linear Regression Model Using Bayesian Approach for Iraqi Unemployment Rate
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In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Bitcoin Prediction with a hybrid model
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. In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction a

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Scopus (8)
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Bitcoin Prediction with a hybrid model
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In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction acc

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Scopus (10)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Survey study on Cholera Disease in South Baghdad
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The study includes collection of data about cholera disease from six health centers from nine locations with 2500km2 and a population of 750000individual. The average of infection for six centers during the 2000-2003 was recorded. There were 3007 cases of diarrhea diagnosed as cholera caused by Vibrio cholerae. The percentage of male infection was 14. 7% while for female were 13. 2%. The percentage of infection for children (less than one year) was 6.1%, it while for the age (1-5 years) was 6.9%and for the ages more than 5 years was 14.5%.The total percentage of the patients stayed in hospital was 7.7%(4.2%for male and 3.4%for female). The bacteria was isolated and identified from 7cases in the Central Laboratory for Health in Baghdad. In

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Identification and Purification of Cholera Like Toxin from Environmental Isolate of Vibrio cholerae
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The presence and prevalence of V. cholerae were investigated in forty five water samples collected from different locations of Tiger River/ Baghdad city. Twenty one isolates were isolated by adopting a simple isolation techniques. The final identification revealed that only three isolates were confirmed as V. cholerae. They were named 1J, 1R and Dial 131 which are all serogrouped as non-O1. Toxin Coregulated Pili (TCP) and heat labile enterotoxin (LT) were determined in only the environmental isolate 1J while non of the isolates produced heat stabile toxin (ST). The purification scheme was improved, few steps were adopted to include back extraction of ammonium sulfate, saturation between 80-20%, desalting through Sephadex G25, and gel filt

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Agricultural Engineering
Comparing Nozzles with Different Wear Rate and Working with the Same Application Rate of Different Plant Protection Products in Aspect of Plants Condition
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Abstract<p>Three different types of nozzles (different wear rate) were used in this study. They are classified depending on the severity of their wear to three groups: new, worn and damaged nozzles. Those nozzles were spraying with the same application rate (303 l/ha) on two-year field trials; this was achieved by changing the spraying pressure for each group of nozzles in order to get the same application rate. This practice is usually done by operators of sprayers, who calibrate the sprayers on the same application rate every year without changing the nozzles, so they tend to reduce the spraying pressure in order to compensate the flow rate increase due to the nozzles yearly wear. Two types of</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Nov 05 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effect of Physiotherapy on the Motor Recovery and Improvement in Patients with Facial Palsy
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Objectives: The study aims to investigate the efficiency of physiotherapy methods to improve the
degree of the clinical recovery of the peripheral facial palsy.
Methodology: This study is carried out at the Rehabilitation Center-Baghdad from November 2009 till
March 2010. This study includes (40) patient, their ages are from (13) to (55) years old; (24) male and
(16) female with unilateral facial palsy of undetermined cause. House-Brackmann facial recovery
scores have been used before and after the physiotherapy treatment.
Results: The results show that the physiotherapy sessions obtained the best effect of the electrical
stimulation, exercises and massage in the treatment of facial palsy. Highly respondents in femal

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
EFFECT OF PVD AND VACUUM PRESSURE ON SATURATED-UNSATURATED SOFT SOILS
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    Soft clays are generally sediments deposited by rivers, seas, or lakes. These soils are fine-grained plastic soils with appreciable clay content and are characterized by high compressibility and low shear strength. To deal with soft soil problems there is more than one method that can be used such as soil replacement, preloading, stone column, sand drains, lime stabilization and Prefabricated Vertical Drains, PVDs. A numerical modeling of PVD with vacuum pressure was analyzed to investigate the effect of this technique on the consolidation behavior of fully and different depths of partially saturated soft soils.  Laboratory experiments were also conducted by using a specially-designed large consol

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