There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

Multiple linear regressions are concerned with studying and analyzing the relationship between the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables. From this relationship the values of variables are predicted. In this paper the multiple linear regression model and three covariates were studied in the presence of the problem of auto-correlation of errors when the random error distributed the distribution of exponential. Three methods were compared (general least squares, M robust, and Laplace robust method). We have employed the simulation studies and calculated the statistical standard mean squares error with sample sizes (15, 30, 60, 100). Further we applied the best method on the real experiment data representing the varieties of

Linear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust

This research includes the study of dual data models with mixed random parameters, which contain two types of parameters, the first is random and the other is fixed. For the random parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in the marginal tendencies of the cross sections, and for the fixed parameter, it is obtained as a result of differences in fixed limits, and random errors for each section. Accidental bearing the characteristic of heterogeneity of variance in addition to the presence of serial correlation of the first degree, and the main objective in this research is the use of efficient methods commensurate with the paired data in the case of small samples, and to achieve this goal, the feasible general least squa

Improving the ability of asphalt pavement to survive the heavily repeated axle loads and weathering challenges in Iraq has been the subject of research for many years. The critical need for such data in the design and construction of more durable flexible pavement in bridge deck material is paramount. One of new possible steps is the epoxy asphalt concrete, which is classified as a superior asphalt concrete in roads and greatly imparts the level of design and construction. This paper describes a study on 40-50 penetration graded asphalt cement mixed with epoxy to produce asphalt concrete mixtures. The tests carried out are the Marshall properties, permanent deformation, flexural fatigue cracking and moisture damage. Epoxy asphalt mixes perf

Background: Rehabilitation of the carious tooth to establish tooth structure integrity required cavity design that show a benign stress distribution. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of the cavity position on the stress values in the reamining tooth structure restored with amalgam or resin composite. Materials and methods: Seven 2-D models of maxillary first premolar include class I cavity design was prepared, one sound tooth (A) 3 composite (B1, B2, and B3) and 3 amalgam (C1, C2, and C3). In design (BI and C1) the cavity position is in the mid distance between bacc-lingual cusp tip, design (B2 and C2) and (B3 and C3) shifted toward the buccal cusp and the lingual cusp for 0.5 mm respectively. One hundred N vertical