The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

It has been shown in ionospheric research that calculation of the total electron content (TEC) is an important factor in global navigation system. In this study, TEC calculation was performed over Baghdad city, Iraq, using a combination of two numerical methods called composite Simpson and composite Trapezoidal methods. TEC was calculated using the line integral of the electron density derived from the International reference ionosphere IRI2012 and NeQuick2 models from 70 to 2000 km above the earth surface. The hour of the day and the day number of the year, R12, were chosen as inputs for the calculation techniques to take into account latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal variation of TEC. The results of latitudinal variation of TE

This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and th

This research is an attempt to develop exercise with weights to strengthen some of the striking muscles in the shoulder and arm and to develop the accuracy of the smash and rectum skills. The importance of this paper lies in the study of moments of force to achieve the ability to control muscular work and to explore the impact of physical and skill exercises with weights to develop moments of force for some muscles. The experimental method on a sample of players, selected according to the intentional method, including ( 9) advanced players representing Air Force Club participating in the Premier League for season 2011-2012. It is concluded that the exercises proposed have their effective impact on developing the variables of moments force f

The techniques of fractional calculus are applied successfully in many branches of science and engineering, one of the techniques is the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM), which researchers did not study with the fractional derivative of Caputo Fabrizio. This work aims to study the Elzaki Adomian decomposition method (EADM) to solve fractional differential equations with the Caputo-Fabrizio derivative. We presented the algorithm of this method with the CF operator and discussed its convergence by using the method of the Cauchy series then, the method has applied to solve Burger, heat-like, and, couped Burger equations with the Caputo -Fabrizio operator. To conclude the method was convergent and effective for solving this type of

One of the troublesome duties in chemical industrial units is determining the instantaneous drop size distribution, which is created between two immiscible liquids within such units. In this work a complete system for measuring instantaneous droplet size is constructed. It consists of laser detection system (1mW He-Ne laser), drop generation system (turbine mixer unit), and microphotography system. Two immiscible liquids, water and kerosene were mixed together with different low volume fractions (0.0025, 0.02) of kerosene (as a dispersed phase) in water (as a continuous phase). The experiments were carried out at different rotational speed (1180- 2090 r.p.m) of the turbine mixer. The Sauter mean diameter of the drops was determined by la

Abstract

This study aims to identify the reality of using electronic applications in teaching language skills to people with mild intellectual disabilities from the mothers’ perspective. A descriptive approach was used. The electronic questionnaires were administered to the study sample, 122 responses were received from mothers of the students with mild intellectual disability in Hafer Al-Baten schools. The response average rate was 94%. The results showed that there are statistically significant differences that are related to the variant of monthly income as for the barriers to using electronic applications in such schools, whereas there were no differences regarding the variant of monthly income regarding t

The robot arm is the most popular robotic form used in industry. Thus, it is crucial to make a system programming which could controlled the movement of each part in the industrial robot to make it works properly. One of the simplest models of the robot arm is EDARM ED-7100 which has a controller to control the movement of the robot arm manually. In this study, the robot controller has been redesigned in order to improve this robot's function. The new controller system used AT89S52 microcontroller which has wire connected to the robot hand. A function has been added with this controller to improve the system of controlling and becomes better than the previous system (only manually). The functions of the new system include three mo

We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F