Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
the pursue of social systems history present to us solid evidence that the collapse of that systems be caused by either the stagnancy aftermath maturity or unreal intellectual foundation which lead to sudden collapse, while the capitalism can avoided that intellectual damages due to its dynamic system with appropriate auto adaptation mechanism and use it excellently in the right time.
The globalization had excrete (as one of the capitalism adaptation mechanism) its own targets and its methods in framework of multinationals corporations which consist with capitalism states that employed the international organizations to reconstruction the global economy to serve such targets. So the glob
... Show MoreThis paper introduces a relationship between the independence of polynomials associated with the links of the network, and the Jacobian determinant of these polynomials. Also, it presents a way to simplify a given communication network through an algorithm that splits the network into subnets and reintegrates them into a network that is a general representation or model of the studied network. This model is also represented through a combination of polynomial equations and uses Groebner bases to reach a new simplified network equivalent to the given network, which may make studying the ability to solve the problem of network coding less expensive and much easier.
In this paper, the theoretical cross section in pre-equilibrium nuclear reaction has been studied for the reaction at energy 22.4 MeV. Ericson’s formula of partial level density PLD and their corrections (William’s correction and spin correction) have been substituted in the theoretical cross section and compared with the experimental data for nucleus. It has been found that the theoretical cross section with one-component PLD from Ericson’s formula when doesn’t agree with the experimental value and when . There is little agreement only at the high value of energy range with the experimental cross section. The theoretical cross section that depends on the one-component William's formula and on-component corrected to spi
... Show MoreExploitation of mature oil fields around the world has forced researchers to develop new ways to optimize reservoir performance from such reservoirs. To achieve that, drilling horizontal wells is an effective method. The effectiveness of this kind of wells is to increase oil withdrawal. The objective of this study is to optimize the location, design, and completion of a new horizontal well as an oil producer to improve oil recovery in a real field located in Iraq. “A” is an oil and gas condensate field located in the Northeast of Iraq. From field production history, it is realized the difficulty to control gas and water production in this kind of complex carbonate reservoir with vertical producer wells. In this study, a horizont
... Show MoreInflammatory response had a role in cancer progression, presence of noticeable inflammation within the tumor and its margin may play an important prognostic role in colorectal carcinoma.