The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

The accumulation of toxic elements in vegetables and melons grown in agriculture, Brassica rapa - turnip, Solanum lycopersicum - tomato, Citrullus lanatus - watermelon, Capsicum annuum - bell pepper, Daucus carota - carrots, Cucurbita pepo - pumpkin, Cucumis melo - melon, and also Prunus armeniaca - apricot from fruit trees were analyzed. The excess of maximum allowable concentrations in agricultural crops of the element As by 1.65-1.75, Cd - 1.6-2.3, Cr -1.2-2.35, Cu -1.6-3.3, Ni - 1.16-3.53, Pb - 1.54-3.08, Al - 1.36-3.5, Sb - 2.0-33, Se - 1.1-3.3 times was established. The maximum allowable concentration of mercury in vegetables and melons was equal to 0.02 mg/kg,

In this paper, a new equivalent lumped parameter model is proposed for describing the vibration of beams under the moving load effect. Also, an analytical formula for calculating such vibration for low-speed loads is presented. Furthermore, a MATLAB/Simulink model is introduced to give a simple and accurate solution that can be used to design beams subjected to any moving loads, i.e., loads of any magnitude and speed. In general, the proposed Simulink model can be used much easier than the alternative FEM software, which is usually used in designing such beams. The obtained results from the analytical formula and the proposed Simulink model were compared with those obtained from Ansys R19.0, and very good agreement has been shown. I

The petrophysical analysis is very important to understand the factors controlling the reservoir quality and production wells. In the current study, the petrophysical evaluation was accomplished to hydrocarbon assessment based on well log data of four wells of Early Cretaceous carbonate reservoir Yamama Formation in Abu-Amood oil field in the southern part of Iraq. The available well logs such as sonic, density, neutron, gamma ray, SP, and resistivity logs for wells AAm-1, AAm-2, AAm-3, and AAm-5 were used to delineate the reservoir characteristics of the Yamama Formation. Lithologic and mineralogic studies were performed using porosity logs combination cross plots such as density vs. neutron cross plot and M-N mineralogy plot. Thes

This study was conducted in the field of the Poultry Research Station of the Department of Animal Production / Department of Agricultural Research / Ministry of Agriculture for the period 4/4/2021 to 16/5/2021, in which 300 one-day-old Ross308 chicks that fed on diets used avocado oil and Chia with percentages 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6% respectively, and their mixture consisting of 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 each of avocado and Chia oil (50% avocado + 50% Chia oil). The experiment included 4 treatments with 3 replicates for each treatment (10 birds/replicates), in order to study the effect of using avocado and chia oil and their mixture in meat broiler diets on some physiological and microbial characteristics of blood plasma. The results indicate a

In Iraq, water shortages and drought, especially during the hot summer months, necessitates that municipal authorities adopt water reuse projects like reusing treated domestic wastewater for crop irrigation. This work gives the conceptual and basic design elements for the necessary steps of filtration, UV irradiation and chlorination to make such a wastewater fit for agricultural use. A typical rural community of 50,000 people is considered as an example case for which functionality and relative simplicity of the proposed designs are prime factors. The objectives are 1) to show what is required and 2) that the presented information may be utilized to embark on the following phases of detailed design and execution of such projects.

The research aims to show the effect of some short-term debt instruments (central treasury transfers, cash credit granted to the government by commercial banks) on the production of the wheat crop in Iraq, through its effect on money supply during the period (1990-2018), As the study includes two models according to the statistical program (Eviews9), the first model included measuring the effect of short-term debt instruments on money supply, and the second measuring the extent of the money supply's impact on Wheat crop production, as the results of the standard analysis showed that the short-term debt instruments used in the model were Significant effect on wheat crop production indirectly through its effect on money supply, As

This paper aimed to investigate the effect of the height-to-length ratio of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls when loaded by a vertical load. The finite element (FE) method was implemented for modeling and analysis of URM wall. In this paper, ABAQUS, FE software with implicit solver was used to model and analysis URM walls subjected to a vertical load. In order to ensure the validity of Detailed Micro Model (DMM) in predicting the behavior of URM walls under vertical load, the results of the proposed model are compared with experimental results. Load-displacement relationship of the proposed numerical model is found of a good agreement with that of the published experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curve obtained fro