The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
Low-temperature stratification, high-volumetric storage capacity, and less-complicated material processing make phase-changing materials (PCMs) very suitable candidates for solar energy storage applications. However, their poor heat diffusivities and suboptimal containment designs severely limit their decent storage capabilities. In these systems, the arrangement of tubes conveying the heat transport fluid (HTF) plays a crucial role in heat communication between the PCM and HTF during phase transition. This study investigates a helical coil tube-and-shell thermal storage system integrated with a novel central return tube to enhance heat transfer effectiveness. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations compare the proposed d
... Show MoreContracaecum rudolphii Hartwich, 1964 is a nematode which causes major concerns to human and wildlife animal’s health. However, the population genetics of C. rudolphii has been poorly studied in Iraq. In order to gain a deeper understanding in the outline of the genetic diversity of the nematode C. rudolphii that were isolated from its host cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo (Linnaeus, 1758), in the middle areas of Iraq, twenty specimens of C. rudolphii adults were isolated from nine individuals of P. carbo. The first (ITS-1) internal transcribed spacers (ITS) of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) of C. rudolphii were amplified using conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR); then, the amplicons were subjected to sequencing. Concatenation of ITS-1 (rD
... Show MoreThe current study presents the cellar spiders genus Nita Huber & El-Hennawy, 2007 (Araneae, Pholcidae) as the first record for Iraq spider fauna, this genus represented by the species Nita elsaff Huber & El-Hennawy, 2007 were identified based on morphological characteristics and DNA sequence data. A short morphological description is also presented for cellar spiders listed in Iraq; including this species in addition to Artema Atlanta Walckenaer, 1837.
Many stone tools were found on a hill south of the Hor Al-Dalmaj which is located in the central part of the alluvial plain of Mesopotamia, between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. The types of rocks from which the studied stone tools were made are not found in the alluvial plain, because it consists of friable sand, silt, and clay. All existing sediments were precipitated in riverine environments such as point bar, over bank, and floodplain sediments. The collected stone tools were described with a magnifying glass (10 x) and a polarized microscope after they were thin sectioned. Microscopic analysis showed that these stone tools are made of sedimentary, volcanic igneous and metamorphic rocks, such as: sandstones, limestones, chert, con
... Show MoreIn petroleum reservoir engineering, history matching refers to the calibration process in which a reservoir simulation model is validated through matching simulation outputs with the measurement of observed data. A traditional history matching technique is performed manually by engineering in which the most uncertain observed parameters are changed until a satisfactory match is obtained between the generated model and historical information. This study focuses on step by step and trial and error history matching of the Mishrif reservoir to constrain the appropriate simulated model. Up to 1 January 2021, Buzurgan Oilfield, which has eighty-five producers and sixteen injectors and has been under production for 45 years when it started
... Show MoreContracaecum rudolphii Hartwich, 1964 is a nematode which causes major concerns to human and wildlife animal’s health. However, the population genetics of C. rudolphii has been poorly studied in Iraq. In order to gain a deeper understanding in the outline of the genetic diversity of the nematode C. rudolphii that were isolated from its host cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo (Linnaeus, 1758), in the middle areas of Iraq, twenty specimens of C. rudolphii adults were isolated from nine individuals of P. carbo. The first (ITS-1) internal transcribed spacers (ITS) of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) of C. rudolphii were amplified using conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR); then, the amplicons were subjected to sequencing. Concatenation of ITS
... Show MoreIn this paper, the species of the genus of Chlaenius Bonelli, 1810 (Coleoptera, Carabidae) were reviewed, and it was revealed that there are 21 confirmed species in Iraq; among them, the species of Chlaenius hamifer Chaudoir, 1856 was recorded for the first time in Iraq.
Diagnostic characters, a redescription of some of the morphological features, photographs and illustrations are provided for the new record species in this investigation.
The shape dimensions and characteristics of pollen grains and seeds have importance in distinguish among species. Therefore, the present study included morphological characteristics of pollen grains and seeds for eight species belonging to eight genera of the family Brassicaceae and these species are: Alliaria petiolata (M.Bieb) Cavara et Grand, Aubrieta parviflora Boiss, Cardamine hirsuta L., Crambe orientalis L., Eromobium aegyptiacum (Spreng.) Schweinf.et Asch.ex Boiss., Parlatoria cakiloidea Boiss., Sterigmostemum sulphureum (Banksetsol.) Bornm. Neotorularia torulosa (Desf.) Hedge & J. Leonard. The pollen grains were studied in morphological and full measurements were taken, the study showed that the majority of the pollen grai
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