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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Synthesis and Characterization of new Manganese(II), Cobalt(II), Cadmium(II) and Mercury(II) Complexes with ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-2-chloroacetamide] and their Antibacterial Studies
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Abstract<p>Addition chloro acetyl isothiocyanate (C<sub>3</sub>H<sub>2</sub>ClNOS) with 3-Aminoaceto phenone (C<sub>8</sub>H<sub>9</sub>NO) to prepare a fresh Ligand [N-(3-acetyl phenyl carbamothioyl)-2-chloroacetamide](L). The ligand (L) behaves as bidentate coordinating through O and S donor with metal ions, the general formula of all complexes [M(L)<sub>2</sub>(Cl)<sub>2</sub>](M<sup>+2</sup> = Manganese(II), Cobalt(II), Cadmium(II) and Mercury(II)). Compounds were investigation by Proton-1, Carbon -13 NMR spectra (ligand (L) only), Element Microanalysis for C, N, H, O, S, Fourier-transform infrared, UV visible, Conductance</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Health Science Reports
Diagnostic potential of salivary interleukin‐17, RANKL, and OPG to differentiate between periodontal health and disease and discriminate stable and unstable periodontitis: A case‐control study
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Abstract<sec><title>Background and Aims

Limitations of the conventional diagnostic techniques urged researchers to seek novel methods to predict, diagnose, and monitor periodontal disease. Use of the biomarkers available in oral fluids could be a revolutionary surrogate for the manual probing/diagnostic radiograph. Several salivary biomarkers have the potential to accurately discriminate periodontal health and disease. This study aimed to determine the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of salivary interleukin (IL)‐17, receptor activator of nuclear factor‐κB ligand (RANKL), osteoprotegerin (OPG), RANKL/OPG for differentiating (1) periodontal health from disease and (2) stable a

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Molecular Structure
Synthesis, spectral studies, DFT, biological evaluation, molecular docking and dyeing performance of 1-(4-((2-amino-5-methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl) ethanone complexes with some metallic ions
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial Activities of Ligand Type N2O4 Schiff base and its Novel Complexes with Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) ions.
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The reaction of 2-amino benzoic acid with 1,2-dichloroethane under reflux in methanol and KOH as a base to gave the precursor [H4L]. The precursor under reflux and drops of CH3COOH which reacted with (2mole) from salicycaldehyde in methanol to gave a new type N2O4 ligand [H2L], this ligand was reacted with (MCl2) Where [M= Co (II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II)] in (1:1) ratio at reflux in methanol using KOH as a base, to give complexes of the general formula [M(L)]. All compounds have been characterized by spectroscopic methods [1H NMR ( just to the ligand), FTIR, uv-vis, atomic absorption], melting point, conductivity, chloride content, as well as m

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2026
Journal Name
Veterinary Medicine International
Comparative Effects of Intravaginal Progesterone Sponge Durations (Short vs. Long Duration) With or Without Probiotics on Vaginal Microbiota Balance and Reproductive Performance in Black Iraqi Goats
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Intravaginal progesterone sponges have been widely utilized to synchronize estrus in goats; however, extended use may be accompanied by vaginal microbial imbalance, vaginal discharge abnormalities, and diminished reproductive performance. Intravaginal probiotics have been suggested as an alternative to antibiotics for addressing vaginal dysbiosis, but their effects across varying synchronization durations have not been thoroughly studied in goats. The current study was conducted to assess the effect of intravaginal probiotic use in association with various progesterone sponge durations on vaginal microbiota and reproductive effciency in Black Iraqi goats. Forty-four adult goats (2–5 years) were randomly assigned to four groups (n = 11) fo

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2025
Journal Name
Farmacia
PHARMACOGENOMIC INSIGHTS INTO PSORIASIS TREATMENT: IMPACT OF TNF-α GENE POLYMORPHISMS ON ETANERCEPT RESPONSE AND SERUM TNF-α IN IRAQI PATIENTS WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE PSORIASIS
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Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory condition that requires effective treatment. Genetic variability, particularly in the Tumour Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-α) gene, may influence patients’ response to biological therapies such as etanercept. This study evaluated the association of four TNF-α gene polymorphisms (rs361525 G/A, rs673 G/A, rs1800629 G/A, and rs1800750 G/A) with serum TNF-α levels and response to etanercept in Iraqi patients with psoriasis. A retrospective study was conducted on 80 patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis who received etanercept for at least six months. Patients were categorised as responders (≥ 75% PASI reduction) or non-responders (≤ 50% PASI reduction). Genotyping was performed using PCR and

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Heliyon
Treatment of hospital wastewater by anodic oxidation using a new approach made by combining rotation with pulsed electric current on Cu-SnO2–Sb2O5 rotating cylinder anode
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Molecular Structure
Synthesis, spectral studies, DFT, biological evaluation, molecular docking and dyeing performance of 1-(4-((2-amino-5-methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl) ethanone complexes with some metallic ions
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Four Co(II), (C1); Ni(II), (C2); Cu(II), (C3) and Zn(II), (C4) chelates have been synthesized with 1-(4-((2-amino- 5‑methoxy)diazenyl)phenyl)ethanone ligand (L). The produced compounds have been identified by using spectral studies, elemental analysis (C.H.N.O), conductivity and magnetic properties. The produced metal chelates were studied using molar ratio as well as sequences contrast types. Rate of concentration (1 ×10􀀀 4 - 3 ×10􀀀 4 Mol/L) sequence Beer’s law. Compound solutions have been noticed height molar absorptivity. The free of ligand and metal chelates had been applied as disperse dyes on cotton fabrics. Furthermore, the antibacterial activity of the produced compounds against various bacteria had been investigated. F

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Developing Bulk Arrival Queuing Models with Constant Batch Policy Under Uncertainty Data Using (0-1) Variables
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This paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 27 2012
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal For Science
Synthesis and Characterization of azo Compound 5-(2-Benzoic acid azo)-8-hydroxy quinoline as Bidentate Ligand and It’s Complexeswith Co (II), Ni (II) and Cu (II) .
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Coupling reaction of 2-amino benzoic acid with the 8-hydroxy quinoline gave the azo ligand (H2L): 5-(2-benzoic acid azo )-8-hydroxy quinoline.Treatment of this ligand with some metal ions (CoII, NiII and CuII ) in ethanolic medium with a (1:2) (M:L) ratio yielded a series of neutral complexes with general Formula[M(HL)2],where: M=Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II), HL=anion azo ligand (-1).The prepared complexes were characterized using flame atomic absorption,FT-IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic methods as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements.