The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
This paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b
... Show MoreThis paper aims to examine the effects of the gender differences on learners‟ motivation in learning the four skills of English as a foreign language as well as to identify the proper types of motivation for males and females via a qualitative semi-structured interview. The findings showed that all the males have extrinsic motivation in all four skills. On the other hand, females differ among themselves in their motivation. In conclusion, it is also the teachers‟ responsibility to guide and direct their learners to achieve better outcomes in learning the four EFL skills.
Since her early beginning in 1974 in her novel "Les armoires vides", Annie Ernaux writing about life in all its various aspects remained her main goal. This novel gave the earliest signals of what would happen later on in her literary career. Indeed, her works showed abilities of echoing reality, her sufferance and experiences via the use of simple and clear language. Add to this, her writings are to be viewed as an expression of deep felt journey, and a continuous search due to the consequent changes coming out of her identity.
We try here to give an answer to the question about writing as to whether being, to Ernaux herself, a need for the search about her social and feminist identity, or a pure literary work
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to detect the level of psychological stress among unemployed individuals and the level of their wellbeing by finding the correlation between these two variables.
The research sample consisted of (99) people who are currently unemployed and registered at the Ministry of Labor Affairs.
Schafer (1996) scale for psychological stress was used and alongside Ziout's (2012) scale for wellbeing.
The results of the research showed an inverse relation between being unemployed and having wellbeing.
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... Show MoreThe current research aims to know the sex-stereotyping among Kindergarten , male and female, study was conducted on a sample of 400 boys and girls by (200) males and (200), females Kindergarten from age (4-6 years) in the province of Baghdad, for the , academic year (2013-2014) In order to achieve the goals of research, the researcher built two scales measure of the prototypical male sexuality and a measure of the prototypical female sexual and be in its final form of (36) items to measure sexual stereotyping male (35) items to measure sexual stereotyping of females, were sure of the validity scale by presentation to a group of experts as well as the Statistical analysis of the resear
... Show MoreThe research team seeks to study the phenomena of random housing in Iraqi society in general and Baghdad city in particular by standing on the causes behind this phenomena and its relation with security situation in Baghdad. The researchers adopted a theoretical and practical framework. The main objective is to diagnose the risks caused by the escalation of slums in Baghdad city.
The Co (II), Ni (II) ,Cu(II), Zn(II) ,Cd(II) and Hg(II) complexes of mixed of amino acid (L-Alanine ) and Trimethoprim antibiotic were synthesized. The complexes were characterized using melting point, conductivity measurement and determination the percentage of the metal in the complexes by flame (AAS). Magnetic susceptibility, Spectroscopic Method [FTIR and UV-Vis]. The general formula have been given for the prepared mixed ligand complexes [M(Ala)2(TMP)(H2O)] where L- alanine (abbreviated as (Ala ) = (C5H9NO2) deprotonated primary ligand, L- Alanine ion .= (C5H8NO2 -) Trimethoprim (abbreviated as (TMP ) = C10H11N3O3S M(II) = Co (II),Ni(II) ,Cu(II), Zn(II) ,Cd(II) and Hg(II). The results showed that the deprotonated L- Alanine by KOH (Ala
... Show MoreAn abstract is a brief summary of a research article, thesis, Schiff base ligand (L) was prepared by the reaction of 4-aminantipyrine with o-phenylenediamine, the prepared ligand characterized by Micro elemental Analysis, FT. IR, UV-Vis, and 1H,13C-NMR spectroscopy.complexes of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Hg(II) with Schiff base and 1,10-phenanthroline (Phen) have been investigated in aqueous ethanol with (1:1:1) (M:L:Phen). The prepared complexes were characterized using flame atomic absorption, (C. H. N) Analysis, FT. IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic methods as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. From the obtained data the octahedral structure was suggested for all complexes. The biological screening effects o
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