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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EVALUTION OF OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY SYSTEM ACCORDING TO ISO 45001 : 2018 Applied Research IN BAGHDAD COMPANY FOR SOFT DRINKS
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Represent a topic occupational safety and health management is one of the priorities of the loading organization in the business environment ,and one of the requirement for the success and its impact on the productivity of workers and their performance in an appropriate working environment .The international responses to the problems that accompany the technological and industrial development of the business environment are the issuance of ISO 45001:2018 aimed at providing an appropriate framework for controlling risks , reducing injuries and work accidents and improving work performance ,after realizing the environmental relationship between safe and sound work with competition .The search’s issue is represented with the exist

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 11 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Association of Age, Parity and Body mass Index with Hemoglobin and Serum Ferritin Levels in Pregnant Women in Baghdad City
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Hemogloin (Hb) and serum ferritin levels are used to assess anemia in pregnancy. Some studies referred to the influence of maternal age, body mass index (BMI) and parity on Hb and serum ferritin levels. The study aimed to examine the possible association of maternal Hb and serum ferritin with maternal age, parity, and BMI in a sample of pregnant women in Baghdad.

 Ninety healthy pregnant women, grouped in three equal groups according to the pregnancy trimester, and thirty apparently healthy non-pregnant women from Baghdad were enrolled in this observational study.  Blood and serum samples were obtained for the estimation of Hb and serum ferritin levels.

The pooled data of participants showed a n

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Matter Density Distributions, Root-mean Square Radii and Elastic Electron Scattering Form Factors of Some Exotic Nuclei (17B, 11Li, 8He)
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The two-neutron halo-nuclei (17B, 11Li, 8He) was investigated using a two-body nucleon density distribution (2BNDD) with two frequency shell model (TFSM). The structure of valence two-neutron of 17B  nucleus in a pure (1d5/2) state and in a pure (1p1/2) state for  11L and 8He nuclei. For our tested nucleus, an efficient (2BNDD's) operator for point nucleon system folded with two-body correlation operator's functions was used to investigate nuclear matter density distributions, root-mean square (rms) radii, and elastic electron scattering form factors. In the nucleon-nucleon forces the correlation took account of

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 02 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Serum Afamin As A Novel Biomarker for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease as A Complication of Hypothyroidism in Iraqi Patients.
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Publication Date
Thu Aug 10 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Detection of some major elements and protein in Fusarium wilt disease infected tomato(Lycopersicon esculentum) treated with Arbuscular mycorrhizal fung
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The present study was Conducted to evaluate the effect of amixture of three species of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ( Glomus etunicatum , G. leptotichum and Rhizophagus intraradices ) in Influence on the percentage of the components of NPK and protein of tomato leaves and roots infected with Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. Lycopersici wich cause Fusarial wilt disease , planted for 8 weeks in the presence of the organic matter ( peatmose) , using pot cultures in aplastic green house , Results indicated significant increase in the percentage of the elements of NK and protein of tomato leaves and roots In the control treatment (C), While the percentage of the element P was after infection with the pathogen 4 weaks after mycorrhizal colonization in al

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Socio-economic Status on Age at Menarche among Secondary School Students at AL-Dora Region in Baghdad Governorate
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Objective: To assess the Impact of Socio-economic status on age at menarche among secondary school students at
AL-Dora city in Baghdad, Iraq.
Methodology: This is a cross sectional study with multi-stage sampling was carried out during the period from the
3
th of December2013 to 12th of March 2014. The Sample comprised of 1760 girls, 1510 girls from urban area and
250 from rural area was included in the study. In first stage, selection of schools was done, and one class was
selected randomly from each level of Education, The data collection through a special questionnaire which Contain
the age of girl by year, class level, birth order, number of household, number of rooms, residency (urban/rural),
education level

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Instructional Health Educational Vascular Access on Hemodialysis Patients' Knowledge at Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in AL-Nasiriyah City.
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Objectives: The study aims: (1) To determine effectiveness of instructional health education vascular access on hemodialysis patients' knowledge, (2) To find out the association between effects of instructional health education vascular access and demographic characteristics of (age, gender and educational level). Methodology: A quasi experimental study –control study design is carried out at AL-Hussein Teaching Hospital in AL-Nasiriyah City, from 3November,2015 to 2 June, 2016. A non-probability (Purposive sample) of (80) patients with vascular access devices on maintenance hemodialysis patients divided int

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 05 2024
Journal Name
Pharmacia
A validated spectrophotometric analysis for simultaneous estimation of vincristine sulfate and bovine serum albumin in pure preparations using Vierordt’s method
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The novel Vierordt’s approach, or simultaneous equation method, was created and validated for the concurrent determination of vincristine sulfate (VCS) and bovine serum albumin (BSA) in pure solutions utilizing UV spectrophotometry. It is simple, precise, economical, rapid, reliable, and accurate. This method depends on measuring absorbance at two wavelengths, 296 nm and 278 nm, which correspond to the λmax of VCS and BSA in deionized water, respectively. The calibration curves of VCS and BSA are linear at concentration ranges of 10–60 μg/mL and 200–1600 μg/mL, with correlation coefficient values (R2) of 1 and 0.999, respectively. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LO

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
International Communications In Heat And Mass Transfer
Design optimization and performance analysis of a PCM-to-air heat exchanger with optimized fin configuration for building heating applications
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Antimicrobial Effect of Eco- Friendly Silver Nanoparticles Synthesis by Iraqi Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) on Gram-Negative Biofilm-Forming Bacteria
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Date palm silver nanoparticles are a green synthesis method used as antibacterial agents. Today,
there is a considerable interest in it because it is safe, nontoxic, low costly and ecofriendly. Biofilm bacteria
existing in marketed local milk is at highly risk on population health and may be life-threatening as most
biofilm-forming bacteria are multidrug resistance. The goal of current study is to eradicate biofilm-forming
bacteria by alternative treatment green synthesis silver nanoparticles. The biofilm formation by bacterial
isolates was detected by Congo red method. The silver nanoparticles were prepared from date palm
(khestawy) fruit extract. The formed nanoparticles were characterized with UV-Vis

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