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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2024
Journal Name
Methods And Objects Of Chemical Analysis
Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Piroxicam, Naproxen, Diclofenac Sodium and Mefenamic Acid in Pharmaceutical Formulations by Partial Least Squares Method
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A chemometric method, partial least squares regression (PLS) was applied for the simultaneous determination of piroxicam (PIR), naproxen (NAP), diclofenac sodium (DIC), and mefenamic acid (MEF) in synthetic mixtures and commercial formulations. The proposed method is based on the use of spectrophotometric data coupled with PLS multivariate calibration. The Spectra of drugs were recorded at concentrations in the linear range of 1.0 - 10 μg mL-1 for NAP and from 1.0 - 20 μg mL-1 for PIR, DIC, and MEF. 34 sets of mixtures were used for calibration and 10 sets of mixtures were used for validation in the wavelength range of 200 to 400 nm with the wavelength interval λ = 1 nm in methanol. This method has been used successfully to quant

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences
Impact of long-term depletion on horizontal wellbore stability in tight reservoirs-including changes in petrophysical and geomechanical properties
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 07 2022
Journal Name
Hiv Nursing
Assessment of ApoE Gene Variants and Apob-100 R3500q Mutation as Genetic Risks for Dyslipidemia: A Case-Control Study
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Background: Dyslipidemia is defined as an abnormally high level of various lipids in the blood. It is considered a major risk for atherosclerosis and coronary artery disease. Genetic susceptibility can have a significant influence on the development and progression of dyslipidemia. ApoB-100 R3500Q mutation and ApoE variants are among those genetic risks for dyslipidemia. This study aims to assess the possible contribution of ApoB and ApoE variants on lipid profile among a group of early-onset ischemic heart disease (IHD) patients in comparison to a group of controls. Methods: Forty patients with dyslipidemia and early-onset IHD without chronic conditions likely to cause derangement of lipid levels were recruited to this case-control study

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of Interleukin-31 Serum Levels in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis with and without Uremic Pruritus
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الخلاصة: الحكة اليوريمية لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى يؤثر على أكثر من 40٪ من المرضى. وربما ترتبط الحكة المستمرة بمستويات عالية من الإنترلوكين 31. الاهداف: النظر إلى مستويات مصل إنترلوكين 31 لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى المصابين بمرض الكلى في المرحلة النهائية، سواء مع أو بدون حكة يوريمية. النتائج: لم يكن مستوى المصل [الوسيط (] لـ IL-31 في المرضى الذين يعانون من الحكة اليوريميةأو بدون حكة في عينة مصل ما قبل غسيل الكلى مختلفًا بشكل م

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 26 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary gland tumors: A review of 171 cases, with particular reference to histological types, site, age and gender distribution
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Background: Salivary tumors are uncommon, being of low incidence worldwide. This study aimed to assess cases collected in this series of salivary gland tumors in regard to histopathological typing, in relation to age, site and gender. Materials and methods: This is a retrospective study; cases were collected from public and private laboratories. A total number of 171 cases were collected. The slides were reviewed and reclassified for histopathological typing according to WHO classification 2005. Results: Benign tumors were more common than malignant tumors. The most common histological type was benign mixed tumor, followed by Warthin’s tumor. The most common malignant tumor was adenoid cystic carcinoma. One hundred twenty three cases ou

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Publication Date
Sun May 23 2010
Journal Name
Ibn Al- Haitham J. Fo R Pure & Appl. Sc I
Synthesis, Spectroscopic and Dyeing Performance Studies of Some New Heterocyclic Azo Dyes and Their Complexes with Selected Metal Ions
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Coupling reaction of m-and p- amino acetop henone and p-amino benzoic acid with (LHistidine) gave the new bidentate azo ligands (L1, L2 and L3). The prepared ligands were identified by FT-IR, UV-Vis, 1HNMR and GC- mass sp ectroscopic technique. Treatment of the prepared ligands with the following metal ions (CoII, NiII, CuII, ZnII, CdII and HgII) in aqueous ethanol with a 1:2 M:L ratio and at optimum pH, yielded a series of neutral complexes of the general formula [M (L)2 Cl2]. The prepared complexes were characterized by using flame atomic absorption, FT-IR, UV-Vis and 1HNMR spectroscopic methods as well as magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. Chloride ion content was also evaluated by (Mohr method). The nature of the com

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In Vivo Toxicity Study of Nerium oleander's Leaves and Flowers Aqueous Extracts in Mice (Cytogenetic, Biochemical and Hematological Study)
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The present research was carried out to assess the toxic effect of oral administration of the aqueous extract of Nerium oleander leaves and flowers daily at doses of (25) mg/kg body weight for four weeks in mice. The toxicity of this plant parts was determined after two and four weeks by measuring the parameters of cytogenetic (mitotic index, micronucleus %), and serum levels of the hematological (RBC, Hb, WBC) and biochemical (GOT, GPT, ALT, AST) indexes in comparison with that of the control (normal saline), also clinical signs were determined. The results showed a significant decrease in mitotic index while an obvious raise was seen in micronucleus percentage in comparison with that of the control after the two periods of admini

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Chemistry
Oxidative Stress Status in Sera and Saliva of Type 2 Diabetic Iraqi Patients with and without Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy
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The present study aimed to look for the differences in the oxidative stress status in sera and saliva samples of type 2 diabetic Iraqi patients with and without proliferative diabetic retinopathy. As well as to look for the possibility whether this status can be measured in saliva as an alternative sample to that of serum, hence to achieve that total oxidant status, total antioxidant status and oxidative stress index were measured in both sera and saliva samples of two groups of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and the healthy individuals. Upon the comparison between patients without proliferative diabetic retinopathy and the control sample the results showed presence of a significant increase (p < 0.05) of total oxidant st

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 07 2021
Design and numerical verification of a polarization-independent grating coupler using a double-layer approach for visible wavelengths applications
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 01 2021
Journal Name
Eurasian Chemical Communications
New sensitive turbidimetric method for determination of losartan potassium in pharmaceutical formulations using flow injection combined with homemade turbidimeter
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