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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 28 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Prevalence of Pacifier Sucking Habit and Its Effect on Occlusion in Children Aged 1-5 Years in Baghdad City
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Background: Non-nutritive sucking habits are common in infants and toddlers. One of the most common non-nutritive sucking habits is pacifier; its prevalence varies from one population to another. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of pacifier sucking habit among children aged 1-5 years old in Baghdad city and to assess its effect on the occlusion of primary dentition concerning posterior crossbite. Materials and methods: The study was carried out among 1222 children aged 1-5 years old, from which 50 children with continues pacifier sucking habit were chosen to be the study group, compared to 50 children without any sucking habit (control group) matching the study group in age and gender. Children were examined clinically t

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Nternational Journal Of Special Education
Comparative Study between a Combination of Plants Extracts and Drugs on Thyroid Hormones and Lipid Profile in Experimental Animals
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The thyroid gland is a vital part of the overall endocrine system, which is regulated some of body function as oxygen use, basal metabolic rate, growth, cellular metabolism and development This study shed light on a number of extracts that have been shown to have beneficial effects on the thyroid and its function, as well as the various factors linked to thyroid dysfunction. The experiment was conducted to determine the effect of a mixture of two extracts of "Fucus vesiculosus (150 mg/ kg) with Coleus forskohlii (1000 mg/ kg) and Rosmarinus officinalis (220 mg/ kg) with Camellia sinensis (1.25 mg/ kg)" on thyroid hormones as well as lipids profile and tested the effectiveness of two drugs one of them stimulates the hormones of the thyroid (

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
A Comparative Study of Vitamin D Levels and Some Biochemical Parameters between Healthy and Breast Cancer in Iraqi Females.
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Breast cancer is one of the most widespread cancers,depending on World Health Organization, cancer calculated for approximately 7.6 million incidences in 2008, whoever expected elevation in incidence is about 13.1 million in 2030. So that the current research investigates vitamin D role in the occurrence of this disease and explains if vitamin D has a positive effect on the incidence of disease, as well as measuring parathyroid hormone and estrogen levels. Three groups were included in this analysis: control healthy women, benign and malignant breast tumor women. All cases that were selected at the beginning of the disease diagnosis. According to statistical values vitamin D showed highly significant (P<0.001) decrease in benign (3.74±2.33

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Water-Soluble Vitamins in Iraqi Honey Bee and Compare with Others Types by High –Performance Liquid Chromatography
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High-performance liquid chromatographic methods are used for the determination of water-soluble vitamins with UV-Vis. Detector. A reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic has been developed for determination of water-soluble vitamins. Identification of compounds was achieved by comparing their retention times and UV spectra with those of standards solution. Separation was performed on a C18 column, using an isocratic 30% (v/v) acetonitril in dionozed water as mobile phase at pH 3.5 and flow rate 1.0m/min. The method provides low detection and quantification limits, good linearity in a large concentration interval and good precision. The detection limits ranged from 0.01 to 0.025µg/ml. The accuracy of the method was

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Women's Self-care Instructions concerning Wound, Perineal & Urinary System Care post cesarean section in Baghdad teaching hospital
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Aim: to determine the effectiveness of women's self-care instructions on their post cesarean section care in Baghdad
teaching hospital.
Methodology: The present study used quasi-experimental study design in maternity words in Baghdad teaching
hospital. The sample was collected and follow up for the period (15) January 2014 until 15 May 2014 Nonprobability
(purposive sample) of (100) women post cesarean section divided in to two groups (50) women post
cesarean section considered as a study group, and another (50) women post cesarean section considered as the
control one, A questionnaire designed as a tool to collect data fit the purpose of the study a questionnaire include
demographic variables, Reproductive variables

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 28 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Antibacterial effect of cardamom and black tea aqueous extract on mutans streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine (in vitro study)
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Background: Antimicrobial agents have been considered as having potential for the prevention of dental caries. This study aimed to test the effect of different concentrations of cardamom and black tea extracts on the sensitivity and growth of salivary mutans streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine gluconate (0.2%) in vitro. Materials and methods: In this study. Mutans streptococci were isolated from saliva of 34 healthy people (aged between 22-40yrs). The bacteria was isolated, purifiedand diagnosed according to morphologicalcharacteristic and biochemical tests. Aqueous extracts of cardamom and black tea were prepared. Different concentrations of extracts were prepared and estimated in gm/ 100ml deionized water. The agar diffusion techn

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cytotoxic Activities, Determining Toxin, and Molecular Docking of Ovary Pufferfish (Tetraodon leiurus) in Singkarak Lake as Cancer Chemoprevention Candidate
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The primary toxin class discovered in freshwater pufferfish is a category of neurotoxins called PSTs (Paralytic shellfish toxins) and pufferfish toxin has been observed to have biological, biochemical, and cytotoxic effects on cancer cell lines. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the cytotoxic activity, toxins present in the ovary of T. leiurus, and interaction between ligand (toxin compound) and receptors test. This study used the MTT method in the T47D cell lines, liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and analysis of the molecular interaction using molecular docking. The ovary of T. leiurus had cytotoxicity on the T47D cell, having an IC50 value of 229.535 μg/ml, and generated a chroma

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Clinical Characteristics and Antibiotics Sensitivity of Culture Positive Typhoid Fever Patients in Baghdad Teaching Hospital - A Single Center Study
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BACKGROUND: Enteric fever caused by Salmonella Typhi is an endemic disease in Iraq. Variations in presentations make it a diagnostic challenge. If untreated or treated inappropriately then it is a serious disease with potentially life-threatening complications. The recent emergence of drug resistant strains of S. Typhi is a rising public health problem and a clinical concern to the physician. AIM: The objectives of the study were to assess and describe the patterns of antimicrobial resistance, clinical characteristics, epidemiological distribution, and complications of typhoid fever. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty cases of typhoid fever (culture proven) were collected during the period from February 2019 to November 2019 in the me

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
2018 Detroit, Michigan July 29 - August 1, 2018
Design and validation of an electronic data logging systems (CAN Bus) for monitoring machinery performance and management- Planting application
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 01 2021
Journal Name
Sensors And Actuators B: Chemical
Sensitive and simple colorimetric methods for visual detection and quantitative determination of semicarbazide in flour products using colorimetric reagents
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After baking the flour, azodicarbonamide, an approved food additive, can be converted into carcinogenic semicarbazide hydrochloride (SEM) and biurea in flour products. Thus, determine SEM in commercial bread products is become mandatory and need to be performed. Therefore, two accurate, precision, simple and economics colorimetric methods have been developed for the visual detection and quantitative determination of SEM in commercial flour products. The 1st method is based on the formation of a blue-coloured product with λmax at 690 nm as a result of a reaction between the SEM and potassium ferrocyanide in an acidic medium (pH 6.0). In the 2nd method, a brownish-green colored product is formed due to the reaction between the SEM and phosph

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