The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
University libraries seek to evaluate their performance in order to correct their path and adjust it in the right direction. Therefore, they use (performance indicators), which are a tool used by institutions to evaluate the weaknesses and strengths in their work and the reasons for failure to achieve some goals sometimes. They convert (goals, procedures and actions) into a formula that can be measured mathematically, which contributes to the library determining the gap between its current performance and what those libraries are supposed to be on, clarifying the path that the library is following, controlling the risks that may befall it, and thus enhancing the process of continuous improvement to avoid areas of failure and weakness becaus
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Financing is one of the important pillars for activating and activating the agricultural sector, through which we can see an agricultural project on the ground. However, supplying the agricultural sector with financial resources requires a credit policy that is capable of making the right financing decision, because the financial resources are limited. The credit policy, and the financing decision, must be the best use not only to provide the necessary money, but to work to provide everything that would develop and activate the agricultural sector.
The transformation of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank of Iraq from specialized banking to the overall would lead to a decrease in the volume
... Show MoreAbstract The present work included morphological, anatomical, and palynological characters for the new species Acaalypha australis L. specimens, which belong to the family Euphorbiaceae. The species recorded in the study for the first time in Iraq. The plants of this species are annual herbs with green, striated or sub – polygonal stem, and branched near bases, Leaves are simple spirally alternate and lanceolate in shape. Flowers are unisexual, arranged in the axial of distinct leafy and cordate bracts, female flower arranged at the bracts bases and each flower with trileafed perianth and superior ovary with trilobed stylar stigma which has dense and coiled stigmatic hairs. Male flowers are arranged as a mixed verticellate inflorescence a
... Show MoreKnowledge management contribute to the overall private university libraries to develop libraries for the purpose of creating human and technological resources by investing research and development, as well as education and training for life.
This study followed the methodology of the descriptive and historical pillars of knowledge management for the years 1990 to the present day in 2017, depending on statistical figures obtained by the researchers from the General Secretariat of the Central Library at the University of Baghdad, and the Human Resources Division, which specialized human resources training after 2004 (and before those years from 1982 until 2002, where the continuing education was committee of the fixed committees are wor
The mechanical function of the heart is governed by the contractile properties of the cells, the mechanical stiffness of the muscle and connective tissue, and pressure and volume loading conditions on the organ. Although ventricular pressures and volumes are available for assessing the global pumping performance of the heart, the distribution of stress and strain that characterize regional ventricular function and change in cell biology must be known. The mechanics of the equatorial region of the left, ventricle was modeled by a thick-walled cylinder. The tangential (circumferential) stress, radial stress and longitudinal stress in the wall of the heart have been calculated. There are also significant torsional shear in the wall during b
... Show MoreThe research problem consisted in answering the question that revolves around whether there is a relationship to the settlement of salaries with the growth of bank deposits? The research also aimed to provide some initial solutions to improve the role of salary localization, in terms of reviewing the concept of electronic payment systems, its tools and channels, and then identifying the concept of salary localization, its importance, objectives and obstacles to its application, and then analyzing the reality of the state of the settlement of salaries and bank deposits for the research sample banks, which are each of the bank (Ashur International, Business Bay, the Iraqi Middle East for Investment, the Iraqi National, Development and the
... Show MoreThis paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return
... Show MoreThis paper aims to identify the approaches used in assessment the credit applications by Iraqi banks, as well as which approach is most used. It also attempted to link these approaches with reduction of credit default and banks’ efficiency particularly for the Gulf Commercial Bank. The paper found that the Gulf Bank widely relies on the method of Judgment Approach for assessment the credit applications in order to select the best of them with low risk of default. In addition, the paper found that the method of Judgment Approach was very important for the Gulf Bank and it driven in reduction the ratio of credit default as percentage of total credit. However, it is important to say that the adoption of statistical approaches for
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