There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

In this work, the effect of different particle size on the nonlinear optical properties of silver nanoparticles in de-ionized water was studied. The experimental observation of the far field diffraction patterns by CCD camera in two and three dimensions. The maximum change of nonlinear refractive index and the relative phase shift were calculated. The self-defocusing technique was used with a continuous-wave radiation from DPSS Blue laser .The wavelength is 473 nm with an output power of 270 mW. All the Ag colloids samples containing the sizes 15, 30, 50, and 70 nm of silver nanoparticles used in the study were chemically prepared. It was found that the nonlinear refractive index is a particle size dependent and of the order of 10-7 cm2/

Polyacrylamide Solutions of different concentrations (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0 %) of Ag nanoparticles and ZnO nanoparticles were prepared, the viscosities and surface tension were measured for all solutions, where measurements indicated an increase in these properties with increased concentration, where the relative viscosity of polyacrylamide/zinc nanoparticles increased from 1.275 to 2.243, and the relative viscosity of polyacrylamide/silver nanoparticles increased from 1.178 to 1.934. Viscosity is significant parameters during electrospinning process. While the surface tension of the polyacrylamide/zinc nanoparticles has changed from 0.0343 Nm-1 to .0.0.0 Nm-1 and changed from .0.000Nm-1 to.0.0.0 Nm-1. Also the constants KH and KK were

The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the

The extraction of Eucalyptus oil from Iraqi Eucalyptus Camadulensis leaves was studded using water distillation methods. The amount of Eucalyptus oil has been determined in a variety of extraction temperature and agitation speed. The effect of water to Eucalyptus leaves (solvent to solid) ratio and particle size of Eucalyptus leaves has been studied in order to evaluate the amount of Eucalyptus oil. The optimum experimental condition for the Eucalyptus oil extraction was established as follows: 100˚C extraction temperature, 200 rpm agitation speed; 0.5 cm leave particle size and 6:1 ml: g amount of water to eucalyptus leaves Ratio.

This study is the first investigation in Iraq dealing with genotyping of IL-4 −590 (C>T) gene, especially in Iraqi patients with asthma. We studied forty-eight blood samples collected from patients with asthma and compared with age-matched 25 healthy individuals as controls. The polymorphism results of IL-4 −590 (C>T) gene by using amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS-PCR) showed the presence of C and T alleles and three genotypes (CC, CT, and TT). Interestingly the frequency of C allele and CC genotype was higher in patients with asthma in comparison with the same allele and geno