Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The concept of deficit in public budget becomes a chronic economic phenomenon in most of the world, whether the advanced countries or developing countries. Despite  the difference in the visions of the economic schools to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the opinion that prevailed is the necessity of the state to reduce the public spending which led to a continuous deficits in the public budget which consequently increased the government borrowing ,increase income taxes and wealth, consequently this weakened the in motivation in private investment which contributed to the increase of in factionary stagnation , so that governments have to cover the lack of local funding sources which become difficult to be eq

The present expermint was designed to determine the effect of Sodium Selenite (0.5 mg/kg) and Vitamin A (10 mg/kg) in FSH and LH level in Albino Male Mice treated with Hexavalent Chromium (1000 ppm). `This study included 48 mice divided into six groups (1st group treated with distilled water and the 2nd group treated with Sesame Oil were considered as control group, 3th group exposed to Hexavalent chromium , 4th group treated with Sodium Selenite and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium , 5th group treated with Vitamin A and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium and 6th group treated with Sodium Selenite and Vitamin A and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium ) . The treatment lasted for 35 days. The results showed a significant (P ? 0.05) decrease in FSH an

Irrigation has significant role in endodontic treatment, many types of antimicrobial irrigation solutions have been used, but due to the ineffectiveness, safety concerns and side effects of this irrigation, the herbal alternatives for endodontic irrigants might be beneficial. Objectives This study compared the in vitro effectiveness of tea tree oil and clove oil as possible irrigants in endodontics against Enterococcus faecalis in comparison with 3% Sodium hypochlorite. Materials and Methods E. faecalis was isolated from patients in need for endodontic treatment; VITEK was employed for E. faecalis isolate conformation. Muller Hinton agar was prepared with 100μl of freshly prepared suspension of E.faecalis. Wells of 6mm diameter and 4mm dep

Irrigation has significant role in endodontic treatment, many types of antimicrobial irrigation solutions have been used, but due to the ineffectiveness, safety concerns and side effects of this irrigation, the herbal alternatives for endodontic irrigants might be beneficial. Objectives This study compared the in vitro effectiveness of tea tree oil and clove oil as possible irrigants in endodontics against Enterococcus faecalis in comparison with 3% Sodium hypochlorite. Materials and Methods E. faecalis was isolated from patients in need for endodontic treatment; VITEK was employed for E. faecalis isolate conformation. Muller Hinton agar was prepared with 100μl of freshly prepared suspension of E.faecalis. Wells of 6mm diameter and 4mm dep

This study focused on the synthesis of novel polymers incorporating the 1,3,4-oxadiazole ring. Four polymers were specifically prepared by blending polymers (6-9) with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) in defined ratios, resulting in the formation of blended polymers (10-13). The synthesized polymers were characterized using Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H-NMR). The results showed that the structure aligned with the proposed synthetic polymers. Furthermore, the physical and thermal properties were studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Additionally, the biological activity was examined against two s

This study focused on the synthesis of novel polymers incorporating the 1,3,4-oxadiazole ring. Four polymers were specifically prepared by blending polymers (6-9) with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) in defined ratios, resulting in the formation of blended polymers (10-13). The synthesized polymers were characterized using Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H-NMR). The results showed that the structure aligned with the proposed synthetic polymers. Furthermore, the physical and thermal properties were studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Additionally, the biological activity was examined against two s

The research includes the preparation of a new Schiff base(4-methyl-2-((2-phenyl hydrazineylidene)methyl)naphthalen-1-ol), which was subsequently, used to prepare a series of complexes using chlorides of Mn2+, Co2+, Cu2+, Cr3+, and Fe3+ ions. The synthesized compounds were characterized using various techniques such as elemental microanalysis (C.H.N), chloride content determination using Mohr’s method, FT-IR spectroscopy, UV-Visible, mass spectra, conductivity, DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry), and thermogravimetric analysis. Overall, the decay of the ligand and its metal complexes was recorded to determine their thermal stability and weight-loss profiles. The results indicated that ligand acts as a bidentate doner, coordinating wi

Cost estimation is considered one of the important tasks in the construction projects management. The precise estimation of the construction cost affect on the success and quality of a construction project. Elemental estimation is considered a very important stage to the project team because it represents one of the key project elements. It helps in formulating the basis to strategies and execution plans for construction and engineering.  Elemental estimation, which in the early stage, estimates the construction costs depending on  . minimum details of the project so that it gives an indication for the initial design stage of a project. This paper studies the factors that affect the elemental cost estimation as well as the rela

This article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.