The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Keys for 22 species representing ten genera Thripidae collection carried out during 1999-2001 in different localities in the middle of Iraq. Of them four species are described as new to science, Frankliniella megacephala sp. nov; Retithrips bagdadensis sp. nov; Chirothrips imperatus sp. nov; Taeniothrips tigridis sp. nov; Another thirteen species are recorded for the first time in Iraq; Thrips meridionalis (Pri.); Microcephalothrips abdominils (Crawford); Scolothrips pallidus (Beach); Scritothrips mangiferae Pri.; Frankliniella tritici Bagnall; Frankliniella schultzie Trybom; Frankliniella unicolor Morgan; Retithrips aegypticus Mar
... Show MoreThe acidity of spent lubricant was treated using sodium hydroxide solution. The effect of three variables on the treatment have been studied . These are mixing time rangingfrom 5-35 minutes, NaOH to lubricant weight ratio ranging from 0.25-1.25 and weight percentage of NaOH ranging from 2-6 % .
The experimental design of Box-Wilson method is adopted to find a useful relationship between the three controllable variables and the lowering in the acidity of the spent lubricant. Then the effective variables and interactions are identified using the statistical analysis(F-test) of three variable fractional design. The mathematical model is well represented by a second order polynomial.
By
... Show MoreThis study is concerned with the recent changes that occurred in the last three years (2017-2019) in the marshes region in southern Iraq as a result of the changes in the global climate, the study included all the water bodies in the five governorates that are located in the southern regions of Iraq (Wasit, Maysan, Dhi-Qar, Qadisiyah and Basrah), which represent the marshes lands in Iraq. Scenes of the Landsat 8 satellite are used to create a mosaic to cover the five governorates within a time window with the slightest difference between the date of the scene capture, not to exceed 8 days. The results of calculating the changes in water areas were obtained using the classifier support vector machine, where high accuracy ratios were recorded
... Show MoreBackground: Large amounts of oily wastewater and its derivatives are discharged annually from several industries to the environment. Objective: The present study aims to investigate the ability to remove oil content and turbidity from real oily wastewater discharged from the wet oil's unit (West Qurna 1-Crude Oil Location/ Basra-Iraq) by using an innovated electrocoagulation reactor containing concentric aluminum tubes in a monopolar mode. Methods: The influences of the operational variables (current density (1.77-7.07 mA/cm2) and electrolysis time (10-40 min)) were studied using response surface methodology (RSM) and Minitab-17 statistical program. The agitation speed was taken as 200 rpm. Energy and electrodes consumption had been studi
... Show MoreSeven leafhoppers (Cicadeilidae). and one plantboppei (Delpbacidae), Homoptera were identified from a one year operated light trap at the College of Agiculture farm in Abu¬Ghraib. The leafhoppers were: Balclutha hortensis Lind.; B. rufaofasciata Merine.; psammctettix alien us Dahlbem.; P. striatus L.; Extianus capicola.; Neoaliturus haematoceps H. R.; and Orozius albicnctus Dist. The planthopper was Sogatella vibix Haupt. one year records of their populations, indicated that B. rufofasciata occured during the fall from October 10 until December 18; E. capicola from October 24 until November 21 and again in the summer from March to October. The others occured only during the summer, from the end of March and early April until Mid-Septemb
... Show MoreThe useful of remote sensing techniques in Environmental Engineering and another science is to save time, Coast and efforts, also to collect more accurate information under monitoring mechanism. In this research a number of statistical models were used for determining the best relationships between each water quality parameter and the mean reflectance values generated for different channels of radiometer operate simulated to the thematic Mappar satellite image. Among these models are the regression models which enable us to as certain and utilize a relation between a variable of interest. Called a dependent variable; and one or more independent variables
Sadi formation is one of the main productive formations in some of Iraqi oil fields. This formation is characterized by its low permeability values leading to low production rates that could be obtained by the natural flow.
Thus, Sadi formation in Halfaya oil field has been selected to study the success of both of "Acid fracturing" and "Hydraulic fracturing" treatments to increase the production rate in this reservoir.
In acid fracturing, four different scenarios have been selected to verify the effect of the injected fluid acid type, concentration and their effect on the damage severity along the entire reservoir.
The reservoir damage severity has been taken as "Shallow–Medium– Sever
... Show MoreOpenStreetMap (OSM) is the world’s biggest publicly licensed geographic data collection. Because OSM is rapidly being used in a wide range of applications, researchers have focused their efforts on determining its quality. The OSM buildings data quality is still ambiguous, due to the limitations, and a few researchers have evaluated the OSM buildings data quality through difficulties where the authoritative data are not obtainable. The focus of this research is to analyze and assess the accuracy of OSM buildings including completeness, and positional accuracy methods. Two different study areas in Baghdad city-Iraq have been investigated: Al-Rasheed and Al-Karrada. The process of the (OSM) data evaluation involved identifying the correspon
... Show MoreConstruction is a complicated process that takes place in an almost uncontrollable environment. Although projects can be carefully planned in advance in principle, there is a chance that unforeseen events and crises can disrupt these plans, affecting project development. Because the initial investment expenditures in construction projects are so large, they may be quickly influenced by crises, resulting in significant financial losses. The 2014 financial crisis was one of the most prominent crises that Iraq faced, which significantly impacted various activities in general and the construction industry in particular. Despite the importance of crisis management systems, the researchers found a great lack of local studies looking at cr
... Show MoreExtracting, studying and interpreting the morphological database of a basin is a basic building block for building a correct geomorphological understanding of this basin. In this work, Arc GIS 10.8 software and SRTM DEM satellite images were used. The principle of data integration was adopted by extracting the quantitative values of the morphometric characteristics that are affected by the geomorphological condition of the studied basin, then eliciting an optimal conception of the geomorphological condition of the basin from the meanings and connotations of these combined transactions. Hypsometric integration was extracted for each region in the basin separately with the value of integration of the plot curve for the relative heights of
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