The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This article aim to estimate the Return Stock Rate of the private banking sector, with two banks, by adopting a Partial Linear Model based on the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APT) theory, using Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. The results have proved that the wavelet method is the best. Also, the results of the market portfolio impact and inflation rate have proved an adversely effectiveness on the rate of return, and direct impact of the money supply.
The present work deals with five species of parasitic Hymenoptera belonging to Pteromalidae, Eupelmidae and Eurytornidae which have been reared from brachid beetles. A new species, Eurytoma irakensis is described and the species, Bruchocida orientalis Crawford is recorded for the first time from Iraq.
In this paper, a procedure to establish the different performance measures in terms of crisp value is proposed for two classes of arrivals and multiple channel queueing models, where both arrival and service rate are fuzzy numbers. The main idea is to convert the arrival rates and service rates under fuzzy queues into crisp queues by using graded mean integration approach, which can be represented as median rule number. Hence, we apply the crisp values obtained to establish the performance measure of conventional multiple queueing models. This procedure has shown its effectiveness when incorporated with many types of membership functions in solving queuing problems. Two numerical illustrations are presented to determine the validity of the
... Show Moreackground An autoimmune and inflammatory illness called rheumatoid arthritis (RA) occurs when your immune system mistakenly attacks normal cells in your body. Interleukin-35 is a brand-new cytokine that belongs to the immunosuppressive and anti-inflammatory IL-12 family. β -herpesvirus that produces inflammation and stays dormant in its host for life is the human cytomegalovirus. Human herpesvirus (HCMV) has been at the core of several RA-related theories. Objective The current study looked at the association between RA and serum IL-35 levels as well as the association between RA and CMV. Patients and methods Blood samples were taken in the Baghdad Teaching Hospital and Typical Rheumatology Unit from January 2022 to Mars 2022 for the curre
... Show MoreThis study is concerned with the recent changes that occurred in the last three years (2017-2019) in the marshes region in southern Iraq as a result of the changes in the global climate, the study included all the water bodies in the five governorates that are located in the southern regions of Iraq (Wasit, Maysan, Dhi-Qar, Qadisiyah and Basrah), which represent the marshes lands in Iraq. Scenes of the Landsat 8 satellite are used to create a mosaic to cover the five governorates within a time window with the slightest difference between the date of the scene capture, not to exceed 8 days. The results of calculating the changes in water areas were obtained using the classifier support vector machine, where high accuracy ratios were recorded
... Show MoreConstruction is a complicated process that takes place in an almost uncontrollable environment. Although projects can be carefully planned in advance in principle, there is a chance that unforeseen events and crises can disrupt these plans, affecting project development. Because the initial investment expenditures in construction projects are so large, they may be quickly influenced by crises, resulting in significant financial losses. The 2014 financial crisis was one of the most prominent crises that Iraq faced, which significantly impacted various activities in general and the construction industry in particular. Despite the importance of crisis management systems, the researchers found a great lack of local studies looking at cr
... Show MoreOpenStreetMap (OSM) is the world’s biggest publicly licensed geographic data collection. Because OSM is rapidly being used in a wide range of applications, researchers have focused their efforts on determining its quality. The OSM buildings data quality is still ambiguous, due to the limitations, and a few researchers have evaluated the OSM buildings data quality through difficulties where the authoritative data are not obtainable. The focus of this research is to analyze and assess the accuracy of OSM buildings including completeness, and positional accuracy methods. Two different study areas in Baghdad city-Iraq have been investigated: Al-Rasheed and Al-Karrada. The process of the (OSM) data evaluation involved identifying the correspon
... Show MoreExtracting, studying and interpreting the morphological database of a basin is a basic building block for building a correct geomorphological understanding of this basin. In this work, Arc GIS 10.8 software and SRTM DEM satellite images were used. The principle of data integration was adopted by extracting the quantitative values of the morphometric characteristics that are affected by the geomorphological condition of the studied basin, then eliciting an optimal conception of the geomorphological condition of the basin from the meanings and connotations of these combined transactions. Hypsometric integration was extracted for each region in the basin separately with the value of integration of the plot curve for the relative heights of
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