The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Fine aggregates used for concrete works in Sulaymaniyah city frequently fail to meet the standard requirements for gradation and fineness modulus in cement concrete. This paper aims to critically evaluate gradation, fineness modulus, and clay contents of various natural sands produced and used for concrete work in the region. Sixteen field sand samples were collected from various sites in Darbandikhan (5 samples), Qalat Dizah (5 samples), Koysinjaq (5 samples), and Piramagroon (1 sample) confirming to ASTM D75. The field samples were parted into test specimens based on ASTM C702. Then, sieve analysis was carried out on the oven-dry test specimens in compliance with ASTM C136. The test results of fine aggregates wer
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the net nominal protection coefficients for the products table eggs and poultry meat and the extent of its impact on domestic production volume for the period of 1990- 2013 has been the use of mathematical formulas simplified in the calculation of the transaction process with a view to the extent of support and protection offered by the state pricing policy for products Resources Sector Animal in Iraq and reach search Highlights and most important, there are volatile price state policy with regard to eggs and poultry meat, as it ranged net nominal protection coefficients between the larger and less than the right one, which means that values are unstable to support local producers or consumers, and can be The
... Show MoreData compression offers an attractive approach to reducing communication costs using available bandwidth effectively. It makes sense to pursue research on developing algorithms that can most effectively use available network. It is also important to consider the security aspect of the data being transmitted is vulnerable to attacks. The basic aim of this work is to develop a module for combining the operation of compression and encryption on the same set of data to perform these two operations simultaneously. This is achieved through embedding encryption into compression algorithms since both cryptographic ciphers and entropy coders bear certain resemblance in the sense of secrecy. First in the secure compression module, the given text is p
... Show MoreAt the beginning of the nineties increased responsibility of the auditor to the community as the demand for auditing the environmental performance for the economic units in addition to audit the financial performance. With the aim of preserving the environment and reducing the damagse as aresult of the negative effects of the activities of these units.
The researh deal with two sides the first one identifies the theoretical framework of the concept of environmental audits, requirements, methods, types of procedures, and duties of the auditor in conducting environmental audits. It also deals with the concept of the enviro
... Show MoreWireless channels are typically much more noisy than wired links and subjected to fading due to multipath propagation which result in ISI and hence high error rate. Adaptive modulation is a powerful technique to improve the tradeoff between spectral efficiency and Bit Error Rate (BER). In order to adjust the transmission rate, channel state information (CSI) is required at the transmitter side.
In this paper the performance enhancement of using linear prediction along with channel estimation to track the channel variations and adaptive modulation were examined. The simulation results shows that the channel estimation is sufficient for low Doppler frequency shifts (<30 Hz), while channel prediction is much more suited at
... Show MoreRecently, the development and application of the hydrological models based on Geographical Information System (GIS) has increased around the world. One of the most important applications of GIS is mapping the Curve Number (CN) of a catchment. In this research, three softwares, such as an ArcView GIS 9.3 with ArcInfo, Arc Hydro Tool and Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (Hec-GeoHMS) model for ArcView GIS 9.3, were used to calculate CN of (19210 ha) Salt Creek watershed (SC) which is located in Osage County, Oklahoma, USA. Multi layers were combined and examined using the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap 2009. These layers are soil layer (Soil Survey Geographic SSURGO), 30 m x 30 m resolution of Digital Elevati
... Show MoreThe calculation of the oil density is more complex due to a wide range of pressuresand temperatures, which are always determined by specific conditions, pressure andtemperature. Therefore, the calculations that depend on oil components are moreaccurate and easier in finding such kind of requirements. The analyses of twenty liveoil samples are utilized. The three parameters Peng Robinson equation of state istuned to get match between measured and calculated oil viscosity. The Lohrenz-Bray-Clark (LBC) viscosity calculation technique is adopted to calculate the viscosity of oilfrom the given composition, pressure and temperature for 20 samples. The tunedequation of state is used to generate oil viscosity values for a range of temperatu
... Show MoreIn this study, the upgrading of Iraqi heavy crude oil was achieved utilizing the solvent deasphalting approach (SDA) and enhanced solvent deasphalting (e-SDA) by adding Nanosilica (NS). The NS was synthesized from local sand. The XRD result, referred to as the amorphous phase, has a wide peak at 2Θ= (22 - 23º) The inclusion of hydrogen-bonded silanol groups (Si–O–H) and siloxane groups (Si–O–Si) in the FTIR spectra. The SDA process was handled using n-pentane solvent at various solvent to oil ratios (SOR) (4-16/1ml/g), room and reflux temperature, and 0.5 h mixing time. In the e-SDA process, various fractions of the NS (1–7 wt.%) have been utilized with 61 nm particle size and 560.86 m²/g surface area in the presence of
... Show MoreIn this paper, a procedure to establish the different performance measures in terms of crisp value is proposed for two classes of arrivals and multiple channel queueing models, where both arrival and service rate are fuzzy numbers. The main idea is to convert the arrival rates and service rates under fuzzy queues into crisp queues by using graded mean integration approach, which can be represented as median rule number. Hence, we apply the crisp values obtained to establish the performance measure of conventional multiple queueing models. This procedure has shown its effectiveness when incorporated with many types of membership functions in solving queuing problems. Two numerical illustrations are presented to determine the validity of the
... Show MoreThe survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as
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