The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The important parameter used for determining the probable application of miscible displacement is the MMP (minimum miscibility pressure). In enhanced oil recovery, the injection of hydrocarbon gases can be a highly efficient method to improve the productivity of the well especially if miscibility developed through the displacement process. There are a lot of experiments for measuring the value of the miscibility pressure, but they are expensive and take a lot of time, so it's better to use the mathematical equations because of it inexpensive and fast. This study focused on calculating MMP required to inject hydrocarbon gases into two reservoirs namely Sadi and Tanomaa/ East Baghdad field. Modified Peng Robenson Equation of State was
... Show MoreIn the current study, the researchers have been obtained Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the precautionary loss function, assuming the priors, represented by Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation.
Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of Bayes estimator under precautionary loss function with Gamma and Exponential priors is better than other estimates in all cases.
In this paper, two parameters for the Exponential distribution were estimated using the
Bayesian estimation method under three different loss functions: the Squared error loss function,
the Precautionary loss function, and the Entropy loss function. The Exponential distribution prior
and Gamma distribution have been assumed as the priors of the scale γ and location δ parameters
respectively. In Bayesian estimation, Maximum likelihood estimators have been used as the initial
estimators, and the Tierney-Kadane approximation has been used effectively. Based on the MonteCarlo
simulation method, those estimators were compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSEs).The results showed that the Bayesian esti
CO2 Gas is considered one of the unfavorable gases and it causes great air pollution. It’s possible to decrease this pollution by injecting gas in the oil reservoirs to provide a good miscibility and to increase the oil recovery factor. MMP was estimated by Peng Robinson equation of state (PR-EOS). South Rumila-63 (SULIAY) is involved for which the miscible displacement by is achievable based on the standard criteria for success EOR processes. A PVT report was available for the reservoir under study. It contains deferential liberation (DL) and constant composition expansion (CCE) tests. PVTi software is one of the (Eclipse V.2010) software’s packages, it has been used to achieve the goal.
... Show MoreThe statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions . The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).
The research
... Show MoreCO2 Gas is considered one of the unfavorable gases and it causes great air pollution. It’s possible to decrease this pollution by injecting gas in the oil reservoirs to provide a good miscibility and to increase the oil recovery factor. MMP was estimated by Peng Robinson equation of state (PR-EOS). South Rumila-63 (SULIAY) is involved for which the miscible displacement by is achievable based on the standard criteria for success EOR processes. A PVT report was available for the reservoir under study. It contains deferential liberation (DL) and constant composition expansion (CCE) tests. PVTi software is one of the (Eclipse V.2010) software’s packages, it has been used to achieve the goal. Many trials have been done to ma
... Show MoreThis research aims to find how three different types of mouthwashes affect the depth of artificial white spot lesions. Teeth with various depths of white spot lesions were immersed in either splat mouthwash, Biorepair mouthwash, Sensodyne mouthwash, or artificial saliva (control)twice daily for one minute for 4 weeks and 8 weeks at 37°C. After this immersion procedure, lesion depth was measured using a diagnosed pen score. A one-way analysis of variance, Dunnett T3 and Tukey's post hoc α = .05 were used to analyze the testing data. Splat mouthwash enhanced the WSL remineralization and made the lowest ΔF compared with other mouthwashes in shallow and deep enamel after 4 and 8 weeks of treatment. In the repair groups, after 4 weeks
... Show MoreEmpirical and statistical methodologies have been established to acquire accurate permeability identification and reservoir characterization, based on the rock type and reservoir performance. The identification of rock facies is usually done by either using core analysis to visually interpret lithofacies or indirectly based on well-log data. The use of well-log data for traditional facies prediction is characterized by uncertainties and can be time-consuming, particularly when working with large datasets. Thus, Machine Learning can be used to predict patterns more efficiently when applied to large data. Taking into account the electrofacies distribution, this work was conducted to predict permeability for the four wells, FH1, FH2, F
... Show MoreExogenous levothyroxine dose modulation and euthyroidism achievement is a persistent challenge in clinical settings. This study strives to assess the adequacy of treatment and identify the patients’ factors that can be used to estimate the euthyroid levothyroxine dose. A secondary objective was to assess vitamin D supplementation impact on thyroid status.
A review of a prospectively collected information from 142 female patients from Baghdad Center of Nuclear Medicine from June 2019 until March 2020 who were receiving levothyroxine for different causes was done. After a follow-up period, the patients’ thyroid tests were assessed and the euthyroid doses for each cause category were statistically analyzed. Thyroid function was
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