The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
... Show MoreIn this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi
... Show MoreListeria monocytogenes represents a critical foodborne pathogen causing listeriosis, a severe infection with mortality rates of 20- 30%. This comprehensive review integrates cutting-edge research from 2015-2024 with Iraqi epidemiological data to address significant knowledge gaps in regional surveillance and global comparative analysis. Recent discoveries include five novel Listeria species in 2021, revolutionary whole genome sequencing (WGS) surveillance systems, and advanced understanding of RNA-mediated regulation. Iraqi prevalence data reveals concerning patterns with rates ranging from 3.5% to 93.8% across different sample types, substantially higher than global averages. Critically, Iraqi isolates demonstrate alarming antibiotic resis
... Show MoreCO2 Gas is considered one of the unfavorable gases and it causes great air pollution. It’s possible to decrease this pollution by injecting gas in the oil reservoirs to provide a good miscibility and to increase the oil recovery factor. MMP was estimated by Peng Robinson equation of state (PR-EOS). South Rumila-63 (SULIAY) is involved for which the miscible displacement by is achievable based on the standard criteria for success EOR processes. A PVT report was available for the reservoir under study. It contains deferential liberation (DL) and constant composition expansion (CCE) tests. PVTi software is one of the (Eclipse V.2010) software’s packages, it has been used to achieve the goal. Many trials have been done to ma
... Show MoreThe important parameter used for determining the probable application of miscible displacement is the MMP (minimum miscibility pressure). In enhanced oil recovery, the injection of hydrocarbon gases can be a highly efficient method to improve the productivity of the well especially if miscibility developed through the displacement process. There are a lot of experiments for measuring the value of the miscibility pressure, but they are expensive and take a lot of time, so it's better to use the mathematical equations because of it inexpensive and fast. This study focused on calculating MMP required to inject hydrocarbon gases into two reservoirs namely Sadi and Tanomaa/ East Baghdad field. Modified Peng Robenson Equation of State was
... Show MoreThe statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions . The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).
The research
... Show MoreCO2 Gas is considered one of the unfavorable gases and it causes great air pollution. It’s possible to decrease this pollution by injecting gas in the oil reservoirs to provide a good miscibility and to increase the oil recovery factor. MMP was estimated by Peng Robinson equation of state (PR-EOS). South Rumila-63 (SULIAY) is involved for which the miscible displacement by is achievable based on the standard criteria for success EOR processes. A PVT report was available for the reservoir under study. It contains deferential liberation (DL) and constant composition expansion (CCE) tests. PVTi software is one of the (Eclipse V.2010) software’s packages, it has been used to achieve the goal.
... Show MoreMeasuring the efficiency of postgraduate and undergraduate programs is one of the essential elements in educational process. In this study, colleges of Baghdad University and data for the academic year (2011-2012) have been chosen to measure the relative efficiencies of postgraduate and undergraduate programs in terms of their inputs and outputs. A relevant method to conduct the analysis of this data is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The effect of academic staff to the number of enrolled and alumni students to the postgraduate and undergraduate programs are the main focus of the study.
Exploitation of mature oil fields around the world has forced researchers to develop new ways to optimize reservoir performance from such reservoirs. To achieve that, drilling horizontal wells is an effective method. The effectiveness of this kind of wells is to increase oil withdrawal. The objective of this study is to optimize the location, design, and completion of a new horizontal well as an oil producer to improve oil recovery in a real field located in Iraq. “A” is an oil and gas condensate field located in the Northeast of Iraq. From field production history, it is realized the difficulty to control gas and water production in this kind of complex carbonate reservoir with vertical producer wells. In this study, a horizont
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