The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
ABSTRUCT
In This Paper, some semi- parametric spatial models were estimated, these models are, the semi – parametric spatial error model (SPSEM), which suffer from the problem of spatial errors dependence, and the semi – parametric spatial auto regressive model (SPSAR). Where the method of maximum likelihood was used in estimating the parameter of spatial error ( λ ) in the model (SPSEM), estimated the parameter of spatial dependence ( ρ ) in the model ( SPSAR ), and using the non-parametric method in estimating the smoothing function m(x) for these two models, these non-parametric methods are; the local linear estimator (LLE) which require finding the smoo
... Show MoreThe petrophysical analysis is significant to determine the parameters controlling the production wells and the reservoir quality. In this study, Using Interactive petrophysics software to analyze the petrophysical parameters of five wells penetrated the Zubair reservoir in the Abu-Amood field to evaluate a reservoir and search for hydrocarbon zones. The available logs data such as density, sonic, gamma ray, SP, neutron, and resistivity logs for wells AAm-1, AAm-2, AAm-3, AAm-4, and AAm-5 were used to determine the reservoir properties in Zubair reservoir. The density-neutron and neutron-sonic cross plots, which appear as lines with porosity scale ticks, are used to distinguish between the three main lithologies of sandstone, limesto
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The research Compared two methods for estimating fourparametersof the compound exponential Weibull - Poisson distribution which are the maximum likelihood method and the Downhill Simplex algorithm. Depending on two data cases, the first one assumed the original data (Non-polluting), while the second one assumeddata contamination. Simulation experimentswere conducted for different sample sizes and initial values of parameters and under different levels of contamination. Downhill Simplex algorithm was found to be the best method for in the estimation of the parameters, the probability function and the reliability function of the compound distribution in cases of natural and contaminateddata.
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete
... Show MoreThe effects of essential oilNigella sativa and Menthawas study on the chemical, microbial and sensory properties for soft white cheese that produced from it during storage at 0, 7 and 14 days .The results show significantly percent decrease in moisture for all samplesand maximum decrease was at the latest storage period for all them .The reduced in moisture was accompanied with increase in percentage of protein and fat during of storage period for all samples.
The control sample showed increased in bacterial logarithmic for total count bacterial, coliform, Staphylococcus aureus, proteolytic bacteria, lipolytic bacteria and mold and yeasts during of storage period , the highest results showed at the latest storage period 14days, it w
Permeability is one of the essential petrophysical properties of rocks, reflecting the rock's ability to pass fluids. It is considered the basis for building any model to predict well deliverability. Yamama formation carbonate rocks are distinguished by sedimentary cycles that separate formation into reservoir units and insulating layers, a very complex porous system caused by secondary porosity due to substitute and dissolution processes. Those factors create permeability variables and vary significantly. Three ways used for permeability calculation, the firstly was the classical method, which only related the permeability to the porosity, resulting in a weak relationship. Secondly, the flow zone indicator (FZI) was divided reservoir into
... Show MoreThis study aimed to investigat the effect of Carbon tetrachloride CCl4 and Nigella
sativa oil on histological changes of liver. It was used only (20) immature male rats. to study
the effect of Carbon tetrachloride CCl4 and Nigella sativa oil on changes. The rats were
randomly divided into equal groups as follows. First group was injected intra dermally with
0.1 ml, normal saline (two times per weeks). This group was considered as control group .The
second group was injected intra dermally with (Carbon tetrachloride CCl4 ml / 100g ) of body
weight for ( two times per weeks was injected for (8weeks) . The third group It was orally
given 0.1 ml dose of Nigella sativa oil, it was injected for (8weeks).The fourth g
In this research, several estimators concerning the estimation are introduced. These estimators are closely related to the hazard function by using one of the nonparametric methods namely the kernel function for censored data type with varying bandwidth and kernel boundary. Two types of bandwidth are used: local bandwidth and global bandwidth. Moreover, four types of boundary kernel are used namely: Rectangle, Epanechnikov, Biquadratic and Triquadratic and the proposed function was employed with all kernel functions. Two different simulation techniques are also used for two experiments to compare these estimators. In most of the cases, the results have proved that the local bandwidth is the best for all the
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