The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The research presented the experience of creating a new sustainable city, and this experience of establishing an Eco-City (Environmentally friendly) is considered the first experience in Iraq. The current study stressed the importance of the need for environmental planning in the early stages of planning new cities based on realism in planning, design and implementation. Subsequently, that aims to preserve the ecosystem, which is difficult to compensate if degraded or polluted. The research incorporated environmental planning indicators within sustainable urban planning (Reliance on generating electric power that is based on clean and renewable energy sources, Availability of public t
Abstract\
In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the
... Show MoreBackground: Cervical ectopy advanced to erosion is one of the common conditions in gynecological and pathological study. It is considered as a physiologic condition resulting from columnar epithelium migration from the cervical canal into the vaginal portion of the cervix, in which no treatment for asymptomatic cervical ectropion can be given. Treatment can be accomplished via thermal cauterization (Electro cautery), Cryosurgery. CO2 laser therapy is another modality of treatment.
Objective: To study the effectiveness of CO2 laser therapy and evaluate it as a biomedical tool for the treatment of cervical ectropion. The study was done at Laser Medicine Research Clinic at the
... Show MoreThis research utilized natural asphalt (NA) deposits from sulfur springs in western Iraq. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of an asphalt mixture incorporating NA and verify its suitability for local pavement applications. To achieve this, a combination of two types of NA, namely soft SNA and hard HNA, was blended to create a binder known as Type HSNA. The resulting HSNA exhibited a penetration grade that adhered to Iraqi specifications. Various percentages of NA (20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%) were added to petroleum asphalt. The findings revealed enhanced physical properties of HSNA, which also satisfied the requirements outlined in the Iraqi specifications for asphalt cement.
Consequently, HS
... Show MoreIn this paper, a dynamic investigation is done for strip, rectangular and square machine foundation at the top surface of two-layer dry sand with various states (i.e., loose on medium sand and dense on medium sand). The dynamic investigation is performed numerically using finite element programming, PLAXIS 3D. The soil is expected as a versatile totally plastic material that complies with the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion. A harmonic load is applied at the base with an amplitude of 6 kPa at a frequency of (2 and 6) Hz, and seismic is applied with acceleration – time input of earthquake hit Halabjah city north of Iraq. A parametric study is done to evaluate the influence of changing L/B ratio (Length=12,6,3 m and width=3 m), type of sand
... Show MoreAbstract
Objective(s): To evaluate high school male students' knowledge about substance use, to determine the effectiveness of the education program on high school mal students' knowledge about substance use.
Methodology: A quasi-experimental (pre-posttest) design was carried out to determine the effectiveness of an educational program on knowledge of high school students about substance use in AL-Kut city. The study was started from 20th h September 2022 to 24th November 2022. The sample was non-probability (purposive sample) sample of (60) student were selected according to the study that are working in Al Kut Education Directo
... Show MoreObjective: determine the effectiveness of an education program on youth's level of awareness towards
household waste control.
Methodology: A Quazi-experimental study was conducted. Non-probability (quota sample) of (80) young
persons is selected from Baghdad Governorate. They are divided into two equal groups of (40) subjects for the
study group which is exposed to the household waste control educational program. The remaining is the
control group which is not exposed to the educational program.
Results: The findings of the study indicated that youth of the study group have got benefits from the
implementation of the educational program towards household waste control and change has occurred to
their awareness tow
In this study, the effect of pumping power on the conversion efficiency of nonlinear crystal (KTP) was investigated using laser pump-power technique. The results showed that the higher the pumping power values, the greater the conversion efficiency (η) and, as the crystal thickness increases within limitations, the energy conversion efficiency increases at delay time of (0.333 ns) and at room temperature. Efficiency of 80% at length of KTP crystal (L = 1.75 X 10-3 m) and Pin = 28MW, and also, compare the experimental results with numerical results by using MATLAB program.
Metoprolol is a β1 adrenergic blocker used in treatment of heart diseases. Metoprolol (100mg) tablets was formulated as a modified release oral system utilizing the concept of bilayer system, first layer contained (30mg) as immediate release and the other (70mg) in the sustained release matrix. The immediate release layer consisted of lactose or microcrystalline cellulose as diluents with sodium starch glycolate or sodium croscarmellose as disintegrants. The result showed that the layer contains microcrystalline cellulose and 2% sodium starch glycolate gave disintegration time similar to that of conventional metoprolol tartrate tablet. This result was subjected in the subsequent preparation of the bilayer tablet. The
... Show MoreFor modeling a photovoltaic module, it is necessary to calculate the basic parameters which control the current-voltage characteristic curves, that is not provided by the manufacturer. Generally, for mono crystalline silicon module, the shunt resistance is generally high, and it is neglected in this model. In this study, three methods are presented for four parameters model. Explicit simplified method based on an analytical solution, slope method based on manufacturer data, and iterative method based on a numerical resolution. The results obtained for these methods were compared with experimental measured data. The iterative method was more accurate than the other two methods but more complexity. The average deviation of
... Show More