The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
By optimizing the efficiency of a modular simulation model of the PV module structure by genetic algorithm, under several weather conditions, as a portion of recognizing the ideal plan of a Near Zero Energy Household (NZEH), an ideal life cycle cost can be performed. The optimum design from combinations of NZEH-variable designs, are construction positioning, window-to-wall proportion, and glazing categories, which will help maximize the energy created by photovoltaic panels. Comprehensive simulation technique and modeling are utilized in the solar module I-V and for P-V output power. Both of them are constructed on the famous five-parameter model. In addition, the efficiency of the PV panel is established by the genetic algorithm
... Show MoreIn this study, gold nanoparticle samples were prepared by the chemical reduction method (seed-growth) with 4 ratios (10, 12, 15 and 18) ml of seed, and the growth was stationary at 40 ml. The optical and structural properties of these samples were studied. The 18 ml seed sample showed the highest absorbance. The X- ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of these samples showed clear peaks at (38.25o, 44.5o, 64.4o, and 77.95o). The UV-visible showed that the absorbance of all the samples was in the same range as the standard AuNPs. The field emission-scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM) showed the shape of AuNPs as nanorods and the particle size between 30-50 nm. Rhodamine-610 (RhB) was prepared at 10<
... Show Moreβ-Adrenergic blocking agents, mostly comprising of β-amino alcohols, are of pharmaceutical significance and have received major attention due to their utility in the management of cardiovascular disorders including hypertension, angina pectoris, cardiac arrhythmias and other disorders related to the sympathetic nervous system. Most compounds available for clinical use belong to the aryloxypropanolamine series, which is considered the second generation of β-blocking agents. The present study includes the synthesis of compounds with an N-substituted oxypropanolamine moiety attached to the 1, 3, 4-thiadiazole derivatives. According to this information, eight compounds were synthesized and characterized by IR spectra and elemental m
... Show MoreThis research analyzes the level of the short circuit effect of the Iraqi super network and decides the suitable location for the High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) connections in order to obtain the best short circuit reduction of the total currents of the buses in the network. The proposed method depends on choosing the transmission lines for Alternating current (AC) system that suffers from high Short Circuit Levels (SCLs) in order to reduce its impact on the transmission system and on the lines adjacent to it and this after replacing the alternating current (AC) line by direct current (DC) line. In this paper, Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) is used to model two types of HVDC lines in an effective regi
... Show MoreA comparative study was done on the adsorption of methyl orange dye (MO) using non-activated and activated corn leaves with hydrochloric acid as an adsorbent material. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) were utilized to specify the properties of adsorbent material. The effect of several variables (pH, initial dye concentration, temperature, amount of adsorbent and contact time) on the removal efficiency was studied and the results indicated that the adsorption efficiency increases with the increase in the concentration of dye, adsorbent dosage and contact time, while inversely proportional to the increase in pH and temperature for both the treated and untreated corn leav
... Show MoreDam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated usi
... Show MoreAccurate calculation of transient overvoltages and dielectric stresses from fast-front excitations is required to obtain an optimal dielectric design of power components subjected to these conditions, which are commonly due to switching and lightning, as well as utilization of power-electronic devices. Toroidal transformers are generally used at the low voltage level. However, recent investigations and developments have explored their use at the medium voltage level. This paper analyzes the model-based improvement of the insulation design of medium voltage toroidal transformers. Lumped and distributed parameter models are used and compared to predict the transient response and dielectric stress along the transformer winding. The parameters
... Show More