The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Gamma - irradiation effect on polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) samples has been studied using Positron Annihilation Lifetime (PAL) method. The orthopositronium (o-Ps) lifetime τ3, hence the o-ps parameters, the volume hole size (Vh) and the free volume fraction (Ꞙh) in the irradiated samples were measured as a function of gamma-irradiation dose up to 28.05 kGy. It has been shown that τ 3, Vh, and Ꞙh, are increasing in general with increasing gamma-dose, to reach a maximum percentage increment of 22.42% in τ3, 60% in Vh and 29.5% in Ꞙh, at. 2.55 kGy, whereas τ2 reaches maximum increment of 119. 7% at 7.65 kGy. The results s
... Show MoreIn this study many specimen s were prepared from 2024-T3 Aluminum alloy for corrosion test by the dimensions of (15*15*3) mm according to ASTM G71-31 and then subjected to shot peening process at different time (15, 30, 45) minutes using steel ball having a diameter of 2.75 mm and Rockwell Hardness of 55RC to induce compressive residual stress which were measured using X-Ray diffraction method, surface roughness and hardness were tested before and after peening. Electrochemical corrosion test by Tafel extrapolation method was carried out in an environment of 3 .5% NaCl solutions (sea water) where Corrosion rate calculated using Tafle equation.
The obtained results show a favorable influence of SP treatment
... Show MoreSera samples were collected from 60 children aged 4-60 months, all were clinically and serologically proven cases of visceral leishmaniasis, as well as from 10 healthy children, all were seronegative with no history of parasitic infection who serve as a control during the study. Serum total protein and albumin were measured and compared between the control and visceral leishmaniasis patients. Serum protein profiles have been investigated using the conventional sodium dodecyl sulphate – polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). Serum of control group showed the specific protein pattern with five protein bands, while serum protein profile in visceral leishmaniasis pat
... Show MoreThe present paper includes a study of color variation in Iraqi Collared dove Streptopelia decaocto. Three different populations have been recognized: the southern population which belongs to the Indian race, the northern population to the Eurasian race; the dark and light color variation occurs in the Baghdad population because of hybridisation between the two races, found infected with two cestodes, Raillietina echinobothrida found in most of our specimens, while the dark face found beside R. echinobothrida infected with Idiogenes sp. getting it probably from vertebrate sources. We believe that most of the Baghdad population was intermediate between north and south races.
... Show MoreThis paper presents an analytical study on the serviceability of reinforced concrete gable roof beams with openings of different sizes, based on an experimental study which includes 13 concrete gable roof beams with openings under static loading. For deflection and crack widths under static loading at service stage, a developed unified calculation procedure has been submitted, which includes prismatic beams with one opening subjected to flexure concentrated force. The deflection has been calculated with two methods: the first method calculated deflections via relevant equations and the second was Direct Stiffness Method in which the beam is treated as a structural member with several segments constituting the portions with solid sec
... Show MoreThe inverse kinematic equation for a robot is very important to the control robot’s motion and position. The solving of this equation is complex for the rigid robot due to the dependency of this equation on the joint configuration and structure of robot link. In light robot arms, where the flexibility exists, the solving of this problem is more complicated than the rigid link robot because the deformation variables (elongation and bending) are present in the forward kinematic equation. The finding of an inverse kinematic equation needs to obtain the relation between the joint angles and both of the end-effector position and deformations variables. In this work, a neural network has been proposed to solve the problem of inverse kinemati
... Show MoreSaccharomyces Cerevisiae cells were immobilized in calcium alginate beads and activated charcoal for use in the
production of ethanol from batch fermentation of sugar beet waste. Treatment of the waste with NaOH to increase the
ability of lignocellulose material to hydrolysis by acid (2N H2SO4) to monosaccharide and disaccharide (mainly glucos).
The high reducing sugar concentration obtained was equal to 9.2gm/100ml (10Brix) after treatment. Fermentation
parameters, are (pH, glucose concentration (2.5-25 gm/100ml), immobilized agent concentration (2.5-25 gm/100ml)
were studied to find the optimum physiological condition. And the highest ethanol concentration obtained from the
fermentation in the presence of 20%(wt/v) ca
Writing in English language demands both mental skills and a suitable level of language proficiency. Some studies showed that writing anxiety has an impact on the acquisition of language learning. This study; however, teaches the cognitive strategies (PLAY & WRITE) as a writing strategy, so as to decrease students’ use of it when experiencing writing anxiety at the academic writing level. The sample has been (100) second-stage Department of English learners at the College of Education (Ibn –Rushd), in the University of Baghdad-Iraq. They have been randomly selected and divided into experimental and control groups; (50) students in each group. To achieve the objective of the study, SLWAI questionnaire has been distributed to the e
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