The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The problem of frequency estimation of a single sinusoid observed in colored noise is addressed. Our estimator is based on the operation of the sinusoidal digital phase-locked loop (SDPLL) which carries the frequency information in its phase error after the noisy sinusoid has been acquired by the SDPLL. We show by computer simulations that this frequency estimator beats the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the frequency error variance for moderate and high SNRs when the colored noise has a general low-pass filtered (LPF) characteristic, thereby outperforming, in terms of frequency error variance, several existing techniques some of which are, in addition, computationally demanding. Moreover, the present approach generalizes on existing work tha
... Show MoreRheumatoid arthritis is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease its etiology is unknown. The classical autoimmune diseases, have adaptive immune genetic associations with autoantibodies and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), diabetes mellitus type two (DM II). Serum of99 males suffering from RA without DMII as group (G1), 45 males suffering from RA with DM II as group (G2) and 40 healthy males as group (G3) were enrolled in this study to estimation of alkaline phosphates (ALP), C-reactive protein (CRP) and Pentraxin-3(PTX). Results showed a highly significant increase in PTX3 levels in G1 and G2 compared to G3 and a significant decrease in G1comparing to G2. Results also revealed a significa
... Show More<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c
... Show MoreThis deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values
Cryptocurrency became an important participant on the financial market as it attracts large investments and interests. With this vibrant setting, the proposed cryptocurrency price prediction tool stands as a pivotal element providing direction to both enthusiasts and investors in a market that presents itself grounded on numerous complexities of digital currency. Employing feature selection enchantment and dynamic trio of ARIMA, LSTM, Linear Regression techniques the tool creates a mosaic for users to analyze data using artificial intelligence towards forecasts in real-time crypto universe. While users navigate the algorithmic labyrinth, they are offered a vast and glittering selection of high-quality cryptocurrencies to select. The
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreNearly a century and a half has passed since Sarah Orne Jewett published her much anthologized short story “A White Heron” (1886), but commentators on the tale missed one of the most important points in the text. It is the story’s similarity to the traditional Euro-centric fairy tale of “Little Red Riding Hood”. As an author, writing at the end of the ninetieth century, a time that witnessed the demise of the Romantic movement in America and the beginning of the age of Realism, Jewett did not romanticize her characters, despite the idyllic landscape in which “A White Heron” is set. Her story can be analyzed as a text that aims at disseminating ecological awareness among her young readers. This study focuses on Jewett
... Show MoreThe Fauqi field is located about 50Km North-East Amara town in Missan providence in Iraq. Fauqi field has 1,640 MMbbl STOIIP, which lies partly in Iran. Oil is produced from both Mishrif and Asmari zones. Geologically, the Fauqi anticline straddles the Iraqi/Iranian border and is most probably segmented by several faults. There are several reasons leading to drilling horizontal wells rather than vertical wells. The most important parameter is increasing oil recovery, particularly from thin or tight reservoir permeability. The Fauqi oil field is regarded as a giant field with approximately more than 1 billion barrels of proven reserves, but it has recently experienced low production rate problems in many of its existing wells. This study
... Show MoreThe main objective and primary concern to every investor not only to achieve a greater return on his or her investments, but also to create the largest possible value of these investments the, researchers and those interested in the field of investment and financial analysis try to develop standards for performance valuation is guided through the  
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