The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Abstract
The current research aims to construct a scale for the nine types of students’ personality according to Rob Fitzel model. To do this, (162) items were formed that present the nine types of personality with (18) items for each type. To test the validity of the scale, a sample of (584) students of Al-Mustansrya University were chosen. The data of their responses was analyzed by using factor analysis. The findings explored (9) factors as one factor for each type of personality with (12) items for each one. Then, the reliability of the scale was found by using the test-retest method and Alfa Cronbach method.
Human behavior is one of the topics that has captured the attention of researchers throughout the ages, and motivation is one of the manifestations of this behavior, which indicates the extent of interest in a particular topic and their unwillingness to rush towards a particular topic. The topic of motivation is one of the important topics of interest to the teacher and coach in the field of sports. The aim of this research was identifying the level of motivation for junior students, and the differences in the dimensions of motivation for junior students in squash lessons. We used the descriptive survey method, and the research sample was chosen randomly. Only male of the junior students in the College of Phys
... Show MoreFive representative sampling stations were selected in upper region of Euphrates river. Bimonthly sampling were collected from December 2000 to December 2001. Rotifera showed high density in December 2000 while high density of cladocera which recorded in October .The results of relative abundance index showed that rotifera: Polyarthera dolichoptera , Keratella cochlearis , K. valga, Cephalodella auriculata and cladocera: Bosmina longirostris , B.coregoni ,Chydorus spharicus, were more abundant in study stations. The results of constancy index showed 4 taxa belonged to rotifera and 2 taxa belonged to cladocera which were considered constant in the Euphrates river, where the other species varied between accessory and accidental speci
... Show MoreFlow unit and reservoir rock type identification in carbonates are difficult due to the intricacy of pore networks caused by facies changes and diagenetic processes. On the other hand, these classifications of rock type are necessary for understanding a reservoir and predicting its production performance in the face of any activity. The current study focuses on rock type and flow unit classification for the Mishrif reservoir in Iraq's southeast and the study is based on data from five wells that penetrate it. Integration of several methods was used to determine the flow unit based on well log interpretation and petrophysical properties. The flow units were identified using the Quality Index of Rock and the Indicator of Flow Zone. Th
... Show MoreThe banking system considered as one of the most important intermediate circle between creditor and debtors it is mean the most important funding rings in economic activity, whether finance takes the a consumer or investment form and therefore it is the main base to stimulate economic activity both on the demand side, both consumption and investment and therefore of the main motivating factors for economic growth.
The banking system depends in achieve its goals on the grants and loan recovery, or what is known credit process and according to what the importance referred to the role of the banking system, it is important to ensure the safety and efficiency of the mechanisms of banking device and safety is
... Show MoreIn this work, monitoring of monthly variation (from May 2016 to October 2016) in the concentration of the metals (Co, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni and Fe) from Al-Diwaniya city of Iraq. Investigation about the pollution with these metals was achieved from five selected sites locate in study area by flame atomic absorption spectroscopy. The results showed a wide variation in the levels of heavy metals from site to site and from month to month. A total of 180 surface soil samples were analyzed to detecting the pollution with selected samples. The resultsshowed that the highest concentration with Ni was 6.290 mg kg-1 while the lowest concentration detected with Ni was 0.080 mg kg-1. The results of pollution index (enrichment factor, contamination factor, po
... Show MoreThis paper presents a robust algorithm for the assessment of risk priority for medical equipment based on the calculation of static and dynamic risk factors and Kohnen Self Organization Maps (SOM). Four risk parameters have been calculated for 345 medical devices in two general hospitals in Baghdad. Static risk factor components (equipment function and physical risk) and dynamics risk components (maintenance requirements and risk points) have been calculated. These risk components are used as an input to the unsupervised Kohonen self organization maps. The accuracy of the network was found to be equal to 98% for the proposed system. We conclude that the proposed model gives fast and accurate assessment for risk priority and it works as p
... Show MoreFounding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model regarded as the important regression Models ,where of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis .
The ordinary estimating methods is failed in dealing with data that consist of the presence of outlier values and hence on the absence of such that have undesirable effect on the result. &nbs
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