The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The moon tree, the lover of the night, cholera, the sea changes its colors are poetic products left by the pioneer of free poetry, as many have called her. She used to write poetry and publish it in magazines and newspapers until she published it with collections that came into existence from an early age. Several factors helped her in that that contributed to the formation of her personality and the maturity of her talent, including factors Family, including environmental, and psychological, until she later became the focus of attention of many, so she became taught in the universities of London, and students stood by her method of writing free poetry, this poetic color that Badr Shaker Al-Sayyab participated in pioneering. Whoever exam
... Show More500 samples of diarrhea stool were collected from different ages(less than 1year –upto30years) and for both genders from some patients in (Alwiya hospital for children, Al-kendi, central health public laboratory and some gavernarated labs) period(1/11/2009—1/10/2010). Kinds of bacteria and parasites agents were isolated and identified from patients with diarrhea. Nine species of gram negative bacteria from enterobacteriaceae were isolated, E. coli isolated are the higher ratio 4.8% of all, then Salmonella typhi4.6% while the lowest ratios is Citrobacterfreundii 0.4%, while the other identified species were be among the previous rotios. also Plesomonasshigelloides was isolated which concedride one of the bacterial local studies.many met
... Show MoreA total of 589 fishes, belonging to 23 species were collected from eight different localities
in north and mid Iraq during 1993. The parasitological inspection of such fishes revealed the
presence of 59 parasite species and two fungi. Among such parasites, five monogenetic
trematodes were recorded on the gills of some fishes for the first time in Iraq. These
included:- Ancyrocephalus vanbenedenii on Liza abu from Tigris river at Al-Zaafaraniya,
south of Baghdad; Dactylogyrus anchoratus on Cyprinus carpio from Tigris river at Al –
Zaafaranya D. minutus on C. carpio from both Tigris river at Al-Zaafaraniya and Euphrates
river at Al-Qadisiya dam lake; Discocotyle sagittata on L. abu from both the drainage system
at
The research aims to measure the efficiency of health services Quality in the province of Karbala, using the Data Envelopment analysis Models in ( 2006). According to these models the degree of efficiency ranging between zero and unity. We estimate Scale efficiency for two types of orientation direction, which are input and output oriented direction.
The results showed, according Input-oriented efficiency that the levels of Scale efficiency on average is ( 0.975), in the province of Karbala. While the index of Output-oriented efficiency on average is (o.946).
In the lifetime process in some systems, most data cannot belong to one single population. In fact, it can represent several subpopulations. In such a case, the known distribution cannot be used to model data. Instead, a mixture of distribution is used to modulate the data and classify them into several subgroups. The mixture of Rayleigh distribution is best to be used with the lifetime process. This paper aims to infer model parameters by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm through the maximum likelihood function. The technique is applied to simulated data by following several scenarios. The accuracy of estimation has been examined by the average mean square error (AMSE) and the average classification success rate (ACSR). T
... Show MoreThe study aims to select suitable ornamental plant species that can survive relatively with high concentrations of acetaminophen and methylparaben in constructed wetlands. Alternanthera spp, Asparagus aethiopicus and Chlorophytum comosum are examined to withstand three initial concentrations, 20, 100 and 200 mg/L of acetaminophen and methylparaben. A total of 21 plastic pails with each 3 L capacity consisting of nine pails are used for each pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) compounds (acetaminophen and methylparaben) for three ornamental plants (Alternanthera spp, Asparagus aethiopicus and Chlorophytum comosum), with three pails as plant controls. The results reveales
... Show MoreThe way used to estimate the fuzzy reliability differs according to the nature of the information of failure time which has been dealt in this research.The information of failure times has no probable distribution to explain it , in addition it has fuzzy quality.The research includes fuzzy reliability estimation of three periods ,the first one from 1986 to 2013,the second one from 2013 to 2033 while the third one from 2033 to 2066 .Four failure time have been chosen to identify the membership function of fuzzy trapezoid represented in the pervious years after taking in consideration the estimation of most researchers, proffional geologists and the technician who is incharge of maintaining of Mosul Dam project. B
... Show More