The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Static and dynamic circumstances confirm that seepage is water movement through the earth dam’s embankment’s voids from upstream to downstream. Seepage is a quantity of fluid that has seeped through the permeable material or as the infiltration downward and lateral movement of water into soil or substrata from a source of supply such as a reservoir of a dam. In case of an earthquake strikes saturated soils, the water-filled pore spaces collapse, reducing the soil’s overall volume. The water pressure between individual soil grains is increased as a result of this action, and the grains can then move freely in the watery matrix. This reduces the soil’s resistance to shear str
Requires economic work finding built institutional paint strategies and policies are formulated general economic and clarity in its stated objectives and the involvement of all economic institutions, political and stakeholders to discuss all the issues of economic, financial, monetary and analyzed for the purpose of renewal energies and determine the duties and responsibilities, leaving full freedom to the private sector in the formation of institutions to carry out his duties economic, and that the institutional structures to create the right climate for the implementation of its economic policies, which would facilitate the task of the private sector, and this h
... Show MoreAbstractBackgroundLeishmaniasis is endemic in Iraq, where both cutaneous and visceral forms of the disease are reported.ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and to identify associations of CL with age, sex, season, and provinces depending on some demographic and climatic aspects.MethodsThis study is retrospective and includes reported cases of infections using the available surveillance database taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health for the years 2011, 2012, and 2013 for all provinces of Iraq.ResultsMen and boys were found to be at higher risk for CL compared with women and girls. The majority of cases were recorded among those in age groups 5–14 and 15–45 years old. Most cases were recorded from lowla
... Show MoreThis study was designed to investing the drug prescribing pattern which is the important point in the rational or irrational use of drugs among patients dispensing their prescriptions from the private pharmacies in Maysan governorate, Iraq for a period of 1 month. The data collected from prescriptions were calculated and analyzed according to the WHO prescribing guidelines. The data showed that the mean of drugs included in single prescription was 3.4, and 12% of prescribed drugs were written as generic names; moreover, the percentage of antibiotics, corticosteroids and anxiolytics were 33.3%, 11.4% and 23.8% respectively. Those results indicate the irrational use of drugs when compared with the world health organization standard values
... Show MoreMyriophyllum spicatum distribution in Al-Burgga marsh, Hor Al-Hammar was described in relation to some of the physical-chemical properties for its habitat (water depth, light penetration, water temperature, water salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3) during 2011, seasonally. CANOCO ordination program (CCA) was used to analyse the data. Its vegetation cover percentage was with its peak at summer, its value was 90 %, while the lowest value was 20 % in winter. Statistically, Positive relationships for WT, sal., Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3 with the vegetation cover percentage were observed. While, negative relationships for WD, pH, and DO with the ve
... Show MoreTeaching techniques are the vehicles, which are used by teachers to help pupils learn and gain experiences and create positive classroom activities, as much as these techniques are varied, they lead to successful and fruitful learning in the foreign language. They help teachers achieve their objectives (Asowrth, 1985: 124).
The English language teacher's work is an active and purposeful one when he can plan carefully and frequently make the necessary changes in the contents and methods of teaching programme to fit the interest and needs of pupils. It seems that the majority of primary English teachers' interests does not go far in planning their work, and do not understand which o
... Show MoreIn this paper the use of a circular array antenna with adaptive system in conjunction with modified Linearly Constrained Minimum Variance Beam forming (LCMVB) algorithm is proposed to meet the requirement of Angle of Arrival (AOA) estimation in 2-D as well as the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of estimated sources (Three Dimensional 3-D estimation), rather than interference cancelation as it is used for. The proposed system was simulated, tested and compared with the modified Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) technique for 2-D estimation. The results show the system has exhibited astonishing results for simultaneously estimating 3-D parameters with accuracy approximately equivalent to the MUSIC technique (for estimating elevation and a
... Show MoreUtilizing the Turbo C programming language, the atmospheric earth model is created from sea level to 86 km. This model has been used to determine atmospheric Earth parameters in this study. Analytical derivations of these parameters are made using the balancing forces theory and the hydrostatic equation. The effects of altitude on density, pressure, temperature, gravitational acceleration, sound speed, scale height, and molecular weight are examined. The mass of the atmosphere is equal to about 50% between sea level and 5.5 km. g is equal to 9.65 m/s2 at 50 km altitude, which is 9% lower than 9.8 m/s2 at sea level. However, at 86 km altitude, g is close to 9.51 m/s2, which is close to 15% smaller than 9.8 m/s2. These resu
... Show MoreUntil today, one of the leading predominant infections is Urinary tract infection (UTI). It exerts a huge burden on health systems worldwide each year. Treating UTIs empirically with antimicrobials improves morbidity rates. This study aims to assess the prevalence of UTI-associated bacteria in adult patients and to determine their antibiotic susceptibility profile. A retrospective study was conducted for adult outpatients who visited Al-Diwaniya tertiary hospitals from January 2020 till February 2022 to review their medical and lab records in addition to sociodemographic data. A total of 256 patients’ records were included of which 204 (79.7%) belong to females and 52 (20.3%) were males with an average age of 39.22±17.10 years. The pr
... Show MoreUntil today, one of the leading predominant infections is Urinary tract infection (UTI). It exerts a huge burden on health systems worldwide each year. Treating UTIs empirically with antimicrobials improves morbidity rates. This study aims to assess the prevalence of UTI-associated bacteria in adult patients and to determine their antibiotic susceptibility profile. A retrospective study was conducted for adult outpatients who visited Al-Diwaniya tertiary hospitals from January 2020 till February 2022 to review their medical and lab records in addition to sociodemographic data. A total of 256 patients’ records were included of which 204 (79.7%) belong to females and 52 (20.3%) were males with an average age of 39.22±17.10 years. T
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