The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
الاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر في العراق ودوره في تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية
Abstract: This research aims to investigate and analyze the most pressing issues facing the Iraqi economy, namely economic stability and inclusive growth Consequently, the present study investigates the effect of inflation and unemployment, which are significant contributors to economic instability, on inclusive growth dimensions such as GDP, education, health, governance, poverty, income inequality, and environmental performance. From 1991 to 2021, secondary data were collected using World Bank Indicators (WDI) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) databases. The researchers also employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to determine the relationship between variables. The study revealed that fluct
... Show MoreIn this paper, an attempt was made to measure and interpret the impact of several variables on global maritime transport, including: OECD industrial productions, high growth rates of some developing countries, and growth in world GDP. These variables contribute to higher rates of maritime transport revenues of 800 billion dollars annually; in the form of numerical sequences. The dry canal in Iraq was assumed to transfer 99 million tons of goods annually. This was made sure through the economic feasibility of the difference between maritime and land transport through railways. The effect of geographical and anthropological nature of Iraq on this project was studied too. Our findings indicated that the project will not drive growth
... Show MoreThe experiment was conducted at the plant tissue culture laboratory of the Department of Horticulture and Garden Engineering College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad, in order to study the effect of some growth regulators on propagation an stimulation production of volatile oil compounds of rosemary plant Rosmarinus officinlis using two vegetative parts (apical and lateral buds). Factorial experiment was implemented in completely randomized design with twenty replications. The results indicated that culturing the apical meristem on the medium Murashige and Skoog (MS) media with 0.5 mg.l-1 (BA) with 0.1 mg.l-1 of NAA gave the highest response rate of 100%. As for the doubling stage, the levels of BAA and IAA (Indol
... Show MoreThis investigation pertains to the evaluation of water quality in SAWA Lake, located in the Al-Muthanna province of Southern Iraq, from 1977 to 2020. Understanding the water quality and assessments of this Lake is of great importance. The Lake is home to small, transparent, blind fish measuring approximately 10 cm and is often referred to as the "wonderful" or "strange" Lake due to its many unique features. The study focuses on several elements to represent water quality, including total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH, and temperature (T), which were measured directly in the field. Additionally, scientific concepts such as K+, Ca2+, Cl-, HCO
A revised checklist of the robber fly genera (Diptera, Asilidae) was given during this study in Iraq. The investigation showed (21) genera belonging to seven subfamilies, two genera new recorded to entomofauna of Iraq (Promachus Loew, 1848 and Genus: Dysmacus Loew, 1860). Eight genera showed in this investigation and eleven genera were recorded previously to Iraq.
Research on the role of organizational change in easing the organizational conflict focuses for being one of the important topics and relatively modern and which have a significant impact on the future of organizations, so this study was to identify the relationship and the impact of organizational change and of deportation (technological, organizational structure, human resources, the change in the task) at the organizational conflict in the Earth company link Iraq, in order to reach the goals of the research, it has been the development of a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of (100) composed employees from managers and heads of departments and the people and staff at the Earth company link Iraq, the study found: the
... Show MoreThis paper discusses the method for determining the permeability values of Tertiary Reservoir in Ajeel field (Jeribe, dhiban, Euphrates) units and this study is very important to determine the permeability values that it is needed to detect the economic value of oil in Tertiary Formation. This study based on core data from nine wells and log data from twelve wells. The wells are AJ-1, AJ-4, AJ-6, AJ-7, AJ-10, AJ-12, AJ-13, AJ-14, AJ-15, AJ-22, AJ-25, and AJ-54, but we have chosen three wells (AJ4, AJ6, and AJ10) to study in this paper. Three methods are used for this work and this study indicates that one of the best way of obtaining permeability is the Neural network method because the values of permeability obtained be
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