The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
تحتل أدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاقية والإيرادية) مكانة مهمة بين أدوات السياسات الاقتصادية الأخرى لما تتمتع به من تأثيرات اقتصادية واجتماعية على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي .
وفي بحثنا هذا سنركز على الآثار الاجتماعية لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والإيراد العام) لما للتنمية الاجتماعية من أهمية متزايدة في عالمنا اليوم خاصة فيما يتعلق بمقوماتها غير المادية المتمثلة في خدما
... Show MorePolynomial IIR digital filters play a crucial role in the process of image data compression. The main purpose of designing polynomial IIR digital filters of the integer parameters space and introduce efficient filters to compress image data using a singular value decomposition algorithm. The proposed work is designed to break down the complex topic into bite-sized pieces of image data compression through the lens of compression image data using Infinite Impulse Response Filters. The frequency response of the filters is measured using a real signal with an automated panoramic measuring system developed in the virtual instrument environment. The analysis of the output signal showed that there are no limit cycles with a maximum radius
... Show MoreBackground: The undergraduate students in pharmacy colleges represent a well-educated group of thecommunity according to the use of drugs and they are required to hold the appropriate knowledge of druguse and have positive attitudes toward health problems, this good knowledge about the diseases and theirtreatment will give good pharmacists in the future and this will reflect positively on patient knowledge, andtheir compliance with treatment, this due to direct contact of pharmacists with the patients.Aim: To know the knowledge, Awareness and Attitude of a sample of Iraqi pharmacy students towardsepilepsy.Method: Cross-sectional study used a structured questionnaire validated by previous studies to collectdata about knowledge, Aware
... Show MoreSafety programmes are considered one of the means to protect workers from different accidents and injuries and also to protect all assets including machines equipment and various materials. In spite of world state interests in occupational safety, this subject didn't get the required attention by senior staff of management at most of our country construction factories and the application of safety programmes still limited and in active. In order to a achieve the goal of the study, scientific method has been pursued to obtain the necessary information related to this study through tours to related companies and their construction factories and review literature that deal with occupational safety subject and their programmes and cost, in a
... Show MoreBackground: Health information systems in most countries are inadequate in providing the needed management support and the current health information systems are therefore widely seen as management obstacles rather than as tools,Objectives: the current study is an attempt to assess the behavioral and organizational determinants of health information system performance in Iraq.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted by interviewed a total of 189 respondents selected from six Iraqi governorates. The Organizational and Behavioral Assessment Tool was used to measure the behavioral and organizational determinants of health information system performance, it is one of the PRISM package tools that are used to assess the health informatio
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: In 1972 complete description of the
inflammation of posterior third of the vocal cords was
done, with barium swallow confirming Gastro
Esophageal Disease [CRED] & subsequent successful
symptomatic treatment with antacid. The possible
association between GERD & chronic laryngitis was
initially known as acid laryngitis .2
*from the Department of ENT, Hawlear Medical College, Hawlear university. Department of ENT, Rezgary Teaching Hospital, Erbil.
Correspondence to :
Dr.Said Mustafa Said
Corespondence Address to : Dr.Said Mustafa Said _ E- mail: Email [email protected] Mob. 07504563829
Recived at : 15 th Dec 2009 Accepted at : 3ed Nov 2010
OBJECTIVE: To record the common presentat
... Show MoreStable isotope (?18O, ?D) values were determined along with the chemical compositions at 10 different locations along the Tigris river between Baghdad-Ammara cities of Iraq. The physico-chemical parameters and isotopic data were measured. The sampling site represents 34 % of total Tigris river in the republic of Iraq. The systematically increased in values of stable isotope as move from the downstream of the river and the most significantly appears at Kut lake. This increase occurs as a result of several factors, viz. (a) evaporation occurs low water level in the river and its tributaries, and (b) return flow water to the river from irrigation water in groundwater systems. The change in ion distribution and in the isotopic values related di
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