The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet
... Show MoreSpatial data observed on a group of areal units is common in scientific applications. The usual hierarchical approach for modeling this kind of dataset is to introduce a spatial random effect with an autoregressive prior. However, the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for this hierarchical framework requires the spatial effects to be sampled from their full conditional posteriors one-by-one resulting in poor mixing. More importantly, it makes the model computationally inefficient for datasets with large number of units. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses the spectral structure of the adjacency to construct a low-rank expansion for modeling spatial dependence. We propose a pair of computationally efficient estimati
... Show Moreاليورانيوم المنضب واستخدامه امريكياً في العراق
Abstract
The research seeks to shed light on green accounting information systems, analyze them, identify sustainability reporting and how to improve it, as well as study the importance of the Iraqi oil sector, analyze it, and work on applying green accounting information systems in order to improve the quality of sustainability reporting. Oil as a branch of the General Corporation for the Distribution of Oil and Gas Products to apply the practical aspect and prove the hypothesis of the research. Explaining the company's role in improving environmental conditions
Rock type identification is very important task in Reservoir characterization in order to constrict robust reservoir models. There are several approaches have been introduced to define the rock type in reservoirs and each approach should relate the geological and petrophysical properties, such that each rock type is proportional to a unique hydraulic flow unit. A hydraulic flow unit is a reservoir zone that is laterally and vertically has similar flow and bedding characteristics. According to effect of rock type in reservoir performance, many empirical and statistical approaches introduced. In this paper Cluster Analysis technique is used to identify the rock groups in tertiary reservoir for Khabaz oil field by analyses variation o
... Show MoreThe Sonic Scanner is a multifunctional instrument designed to log wells, assess elastic characteristics, and support reservoir characterisation. Furthermore, it facilitates comprehension of rock mechanics, gas detection, and well positioning, while also furnishing data for geomechanical computations and sand management. The present work involved the application of the Sonic Scanner for both basic and advanced processing of oil-well-penetrating carbonate media. The study aimed to characterize the compressional, shear, Stoneley slowness, rock mechanical properties, and Shear anisotropy analysis of the formation. Except for intervals where significant washouts are encountered, the data quality of the Monopole, Dipole, and Stoneley modes is gen
... Show MoreGiven the importance that the Iraqi banking system in general and Islamic banks in particular, there must be effective supervisory oversight of these banks, as supervisory oversight has an essential and effective role in the development and evaluation of the performance of banks, through the application of legal controls and rules. Banking aimed at making sure that its financial centers are safe, protecting depositors' funds, and achieving both monetary and economic stability. This research studied and evaluates the mechanisms and tools used by the Central Bank of Iraq in the supervision and supervision of these banks. Therefore, the research aimed to measure the type and direction of the relationship between the requirements of supervis
... Show MoreIn light of this, attention should be paid to tax reform as part of a comprehensive economic reform program. Therefore, the research started from the problem of the weak efficiency of the tax reform process in the General Authority for Taxation, as well as the need to know the addition of new taxes or increase taxes.The research aims study the relative importance of each disabled person, whether organizational, human, financial, legislative or technical. The research led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which were that the financial obstacles occupy the highest importance of the other obstacles and for the success of the tax reform, the material resources must be provided in order to provide the n
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