The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.
What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of
... Show MoreOil from Brassca campestris (local variety) was extracted with hexane using Soxhlet. The extracted oil was characterized and its antimicrobial activity was determined as well. The content of extracted oil was 40% with 0.5% of volatile oil .Oil was immiscible with polar solvent such as ethanol, acetone and water, while it was easily miscible with chloroform due to its hydrophobicity. The result of organoleptic tests revealed that the oil is clear yellow in color and odorless with acceptable taste. The oil was stable at 4 -25 C? for a month. Refractive index (RI) of oil was 1.4723 with density of 0.914, [both at 4-25 C?]. Boiling point 386 C?. Infra red spectroscopy (IR) indicated the presence of different chemical groups (C=C
... Show MoreBackground: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder affecting people worldwide, which require constant monitoring of their glucose levels. Commonly employed procedures include collection of blood or urine samples causing discomfort to the patients. Necessity arises to find alternative non invasive technique is required to monitor glucose levels. Saliva is one of most abundant secretions in the human body and its collection is easy, noninvasive and painless technique. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of saliva as a diagnostic tool by study the correlation between blood and salivary glucose levels and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) in diabetes and non diabetes, and the comparison of salivary glucose level
... Show MoreThe effect of mental and physical health on the feelings of subject welfare is known as health-related quality of life. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a common respiratory diseases. Assessment of health-related quality of life is considered important in such chronic disease. The objective of the current study was to measure health-related quality of life in a sample of chronic obstructive pulmonary patients in AL- Diwanyia city/Iraq. This study was carried out on 150 already diagnosed COPD patients who attended to the Center of Respiratory Diseases/AL-Diwaniyah Teaching Hospital during September 2019 to January 2020. The Arabic version of St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire was used to asses
... Show MoreA study of the Torymid collection of Iraq. resulted in undescribed species of the genus
Liodontonierus Gah. L. longicorpus sp. n. with 2 figures.
Spatial data observed on a group of areal units is common in scientific applications. The usual hierarchical approach for modeling this kind of dataset is to introduce a spatial random effect with an autoregressive prior. However, the usual Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for this hierarchical framework requires the spatial effects to be sampled from their full conditional posteriors one-by-one resulting in poor mixing. More importantly, it makes the model computationally inefficient for datasets with large number of units. In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses the spectral structure of the adjacency to construct a low-rank expansion for modeling spatial dependence. We propose a pair of computationally efficient estimati
... Show MoreA Laboratory study was conducted in quality control department ,state company for food stuff trading ministry of trade (2005-2006) on sunflower oil imported to Iraq from different origins included 12 trade marks, Complete random design was used with four replication .The purpose of the study is to know the origins effect on fatty acid percent and study the simple correlation between them, the result showed Turkish origin for trademark (Narin) was superior in Palmitic and Stearic fatty acid (10.41,3.29%).While Omanian origin for trademark Alsafwa was superior in Oleic(35.09%) and Syrian origin for trade mark Alnahraen was superior in Linoleic fatty acid percent 66.53% whereas Egyptian origin for trademark Alasel was superior in the percent
... Show MoreNations are developed with education and knowledge that raise the status of society in its various segments, beyond that it leads to underdevelopment and deterioration in various sectors, whether economic, health, social, etc. If we considered the general name of The ministry of Education & Scientific Studies, then the second part seems to be not functioning, since scientific research has no material allocation and remains based on the material potential of the university professor. As for the first half of the topic, the reality of the situation reveals problems related to the Holy Trinity of Education which is (Professor - Student - the scientific method) where universities suffer at the present time from this problem, and
... Show MoreCentralization and decentralization, planning and development, and community participation in the management of its affairs and to activate all the abilities that multiple methods aimed at creating the proper environment for the growth and development of society in the place where he lives. As long as the overall trend in Iraq, represented by the Permanent Constitution of decentralization to regions and provinces, the solutions to the obstacles that may face this transition in some respects presents ways of coordination and integration between multiple levels of planning which can be exercised by the schematic in the future the organization. In this paper some of the visions and ideas that can contribute to the organization
... Show MoreThis study attempts to focus on there lation ship between employment policies andsocietal changesinIraq.Theconstruction ofoperational policyincommunitiesin crisis remains fraught with challenges and risks, especially in countries that have longoutstanding conflict sand crises, it is important in this context to achieve those policy and build the foundations of human security and poverty alleviation, unemployment, to find effective ways to help the community to achieve stability and reduce the risk of renew edorrepeat the cycleofviolence-butthatwouldrequirearadicalrethinking, including rethinking the way evaluating therisksandchallengesand management.And thatsuchaprojectshouldbe based ona clear roadmap, andthevisionsofdevelopmentanda clea
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