The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The objective of this study is to measure the impact of financial development on economic growth in Iraq over the period (2004-2018) by applying a fully corrected square model (FMOLS) Whereas, a set of variables represented by (credit-to-private ratio of GDP, the ratio of money supply in the broad sense of GDP, percentage of bank deposits from GDP) were chosen as indicators for measuring financial development and GDP to measure economic growth.
Major tests have been carried out, such as the stability test (Unite Root Test), the integration test (Cointegration). Results of the study showed that there
... Show MoreThe 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .
In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.
Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were monitored in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equation des
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred
pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were mointered in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equati
Array antennas have an interesting role in the radio astronomy field. The array antennas allow astronomers to obtain high-resolution signals with high sensitivity to weak signals. This paper estimates the meteors' positions entering the Earth's atmosphere and develops a simulation for array antenna radar to analyze the meteor's echoes. The GNU radio software was used to process the echoes, which is a free open-source software development toolkit that provides signal processing blocks to implement in radio projects. Then, the simulation determines the azimuth and elevation of the meteors. An improved Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm has been suggested to analyze these echoes. The detected power of each meteor echo has
... Show MoreThis paper comprises the design and operation of mono-static backscatter lidar station based on a pulsed Nd: YAG laser that operates at multiple wavelengths. The three-color lidar laser transmitter is based on the collinear fundamental 1064 nm, second harmonic 532 nm and a third harmonic 355nm output of a Nd:YAG laser. The most important parameter of lidar especially daytime operations is the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) which gives some instructions in designing of lidar and it is often limit the effective range. The reason is that noises or interferences always badly affect the measured results. The inversion algorithms have been developed for the study of atmospheric aerosols. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of three-color channel re
... Show MoreThis research focus on studying 3 types of Bakhour in the markets of Baghdad city and assessing their impact on the quality of life for asthmatic whom used Bakhour at their houses through investigating particles physical properties, also estimating the levels of heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn), Particulate Matter PM2.5, PM10, Total Volatile Organic Compounds (TVOC) and formaldehyde (HCHO). The quality of life for asthmatic patients whom use Bakhour was assessing by Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire. The results indicated that shapes of Bakhour particles were irregular or spherical. Burning process generated the higher percent of PM ˂1μm. Type 2 Bakhour showed the highest percent of <1μm which was 73%.The amount of
... Show MoreRadiological assessment for the East Baghdad oilfield-southern part was conducted in the current study. 10 samples (scale, soil, sludge, water, and oil) from the different stages of oil production were collected. 232Th, 226Ra, and 40K in the samples were analyzed with 40% efficiency for Gamma spectrometry. system based on HPGe. The findings indicated that the examined sites exhibit comparatively lower levels of NORM contamination, in contrast to other global oilfields. Nevertheless, certain areas, particularly those within separation stages, demonstrate relatively elevated NORM concentrations exceeding the global average in soil and sludge. The maximum value of 226Ra, 232Th, was found in sludge sample the findings indicated that ove
... Show MorePing message focused on highlighting the fact commodity trading in Iraq, and increased exposure to world merchandise trade imbalance, which dominate Iraq's foreign trade major commodity is oil, and therefore the inability of Iraq to control financial revenue as a result of the fluctuations in the international market, the shortage of commodity products will lead inevitably to the weakness in the ability of the local market to meet the internal demand and due to the lack of flexible production machine For agricultural, industrial and economic sectors are responding to changes in the domestic or external demand which will open the door to merchandise imports to invade these markets, since the adoption of the Iraq oil exports,
... Show MoreNutrient enrichment of Sawa lake water was made using different nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations during autumn and spring at three stations. Different concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus and N: P ratios were used to test variations in phytoplankton population dynamics. Nitrogen at a concentration of 25 µmole.l-1 and N: P ratio of 10:1 gave highest phytoplankton cell number at all stations and seasons. A total of 64 algal taxa dominated by Bacillariophyceae followed by Cyanophyceae and Chlorophyceae were identified. The values of Shannon index of diversity were more than one in the studied stations.