The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Purpose - The study aimed at evaluating the accounting system of the Iraqi political parties, which is applied according to legislative texts, and then the ability to provide accounting information to evaluate the strategic performance and control of the party's operational and financial performance.
Findings- The research found that the unified accounting system applied to political parties does not provide relevance informations to judge the performance of the political party, the researcher a proposal for an accounting system that provides the necessary information to measure and monitor the performance of Iraqi political parties can be presented. The
ABSTRACT
The research aim is to determine the relation between governmental consumption expenditure (GCE) & GDP in Iraq for the period 1981-2006.
The research has determined the scale of optimization for (GCE) & try to know the extent productivity of this expenditure and using the long run &short run model to test .The results clarify the following
1-The marginal productivity for the (GCE) is positive so it is productive.
2-The (GCE) in Iraq is too high because the marginal productivity for the expenditure less than 1.
3- The (GCE) percentage to GNP is
... Show MoreThe developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
... Show MoreThis thesis aims to study the effect of addition polymer materials on mechanical properties of self-compacting concrete, and also to assess the influence of petroleum products (kerosene and gas oil) on mechanical properties of polymer modified self-compacting concrete (PMSCC) after different exposure periods of (30 ,60 ,90 ,and 180 days).
Two type of curing are used; 28 days in water for SCC and 2 days in water followed 26 days in air for PMSCC.
The test results show that the PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) which is exposed to oil products recorded a lower deterioration in compressive strength's values than reference concrete. The percentages of reduction in compressive strength values of PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) was
... Show MoreThis research has been prepared to isolate and diagnose one of the most important vegetable oils from the plant medical clove is the famous with Alaeugenol oil and used in many pharmaceuticals were the isolation process using a technique ultrasonic extraction and distillation technology simple
Nanofluid treatment of oil reservoirs is being developed to enhance oil recovery and increase residual trapping capacities of CO2 at the reservoir scale. Recent studies have demonstrated good potential for silica nanoparticles for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at ambient conditions. Nanofluid composition and exposure time have shown significant effects on the efficiency of EOR. However, there is a serious lack of information regarding the influence of temperature on nanofluid performance; thus the effects of temperature, exposure time and particle size on wettability alteration of oil-wet calcite surface were comprehensively investigated; moreover, the stability of the nanofluids was examined. We found that nanofluid treatment is more efficie
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were monitored in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equation des
... Show MoreArray antennas have an interesting role in the radio astronomy field. The array antennas allow astronomers to obtain high-resolution signals with high sensitivity to weak signals. This paper estimates the meteors' positions entering the Earth's atmosphere and develops a simulation for array antenna radar to analyze the meteor's echoes. The GNU radio software was used to process the echoes, which is a free open-source software development toolkit that provides signal processing blocks to implement in radio projects. Then, the simulation determines the azimuth and elevation of the meteors. An improved Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm has been suggested to analyze these echoes. The detected power of each meteor echo has
... Show MoreThis paper comprises the design and operation of mono-static backscatter lidar station based on a pulsed Nd: YAG laser that operates at multiple wavelengths. The three-color lidar laser transmitter is based on the collinear fundamental 1064 nm, second harmonic 532 nm and a third harmonic 355nm output of a Nd:YAG laser. The most important parameter of lidar especially daytime operations is the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) which gives some instructions in designing of lidar and it is often limit the effective range. The reason is that noises or interferences always badly affect the measured results. The inversion algorithms have been developed for the study of atmospheric aerosols. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of three-color channel re
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to propose mathematical expressions for estimation of the flexural strength of plain concrete members from ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) measurements. More than two hundred
pieces of precast concrete kerb units were subjected to a scheduled test program. The tests were divided into two categories; non-destructive ultrasonic and bending or rupture tests. For each precast unit, direct and indirect (surface) ultrasonic pulses were subjected to the concrete media to measure their travel velocities. The results of the tests were mointered in two graphs so that two mathematical relationships can be drawn. Direct pulse velocity versus the flexural strength was given in the first relationship while the second equati